Valhalla’s Most Anticipated Earnings / September 5th 2022

[color=#d4a218]Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., ($ASO)[/color]
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., ($ASO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM EST on Wednesday 7th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.10 per share on a revenue of $1.71 billion. ASO reported 1st Quarter April 2022 earnings of $1.73 per share on revenue of $1.5 billion. Revenue fell 7.1% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be unhealthy with 13.08% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 28.29% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]NIO Inc., ($NIO)[/color]
NIO Inc., ($NIO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM EST on Wednesday 7th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for ($0.18) per share on a revenue of $1.43 billion. NIO reported a 1st Quarter March 2022 loss of $0.18 per share on revenue of $1.6 billion. Revenue grew 28.3% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 3.49% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 12.82% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]GameStop Corp., ($GME)[/color]
GameStop Corp., ($GME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Wednesday 7th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for ($0.38) per share on a revenue of $1.27 billion. GME reported a 1st Quarter April 2022 loss of $2.08 per share on revenue of $1.4 billion. Revenue grew 8.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be unhealthy with 17.49% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 4.31% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Casey’s General Stores, Inc., ($CASY)[/color]
Casey’s General Stores, Inc., ($CASY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM EST on Wednesday 7th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $3.32 per share on a revenue of $4.57 billion. CASY reported Quarter April 2022 earnings of $1.60 per share on revenue of $3.5 billion. Revenue grew 45.4% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.10% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 1.81% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc., ($PLAY)[/color]
Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc., ($PLAY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM EST on Wednesday 7th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.01 per share on a revenue of $432.91 million. PLAY reported 1st Quarter April 2022 earnings of $1.35 per share on revenue of $451.1 million. Revenue grew 70.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be unhealthy with 11.15% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 8.66% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]DocuSign, ($DOCU)[/color]
DocuSign, ($DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Thursday 8th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for ($0.09) per share on a revenue of $602.73 million. DOCU reported 1st Quarter April 2022 earnings of $0.42 per share on revenue of $588.7 million. Revenue grew 25.5% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 8.80% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 30.45% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.6% move on earnings.

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Noticed Friday OKTA was still holding up well compared to the big SPY drop. Might be worth watching Tuesday as all the PTs and upgrades were quite bullish. I’m going to try and remember to read over the earnings call this weekend too.

Here’s Friday’s movement (1h left in the day)

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Here are earnings from AH yesterday (9/6). Probably the most notable would be Gitlab but they are flat right now.

Here’s the earnings from PM today (9/7). NIO was interesting in that it had a loss of $409.8 million in the second quarter, representing significantly widening losses, despite deliveries that surpassed year-ago levels and exceeded its own guidance.

I’m not 100% sure if Tesla is getting some negative sympathy from NIO or if it’s just the greater market.

Academy is up 6%, but volume/oi is pretty low on the options, and share volume is also usually pretty low. It usually holds up good against SPY after earnings, but in these times right now it seems too risky IMO. I might try for a single 9/16 call after the morning calms down if things look decent.

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Looking at these I am not seeing any favorites. A lot depends on SPY and a lot of this is a mixed bag of crap. PATH could be good for puts but the price targets coming out ranged from low teens to high 20’s. Could try puts on it if it recovers a bit and gets rejected around 15. 17 hard resistance. 12 Big support. Academy has already jumped pretty high and is near ATH. 45.50 and 47.50 hard areas for it to get over. Might just be a watching day and trade the trend 1-2 times with SPY depending upon news and data. Not really liking the earnings this week so far.

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Here is potential buy area for puts on PATH. It did recover some from my post on the forum on bad earnings/guidance but lots of price targets are still higher. 13.50 resistance from pre market. So far calls at open was right choice for some recovery from algo drop and SPY helped a bit

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9//7/22 AH earnings for the records… We’ll see how things look in the morning after all the market data & Powell speech and everything.

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Had a little mini vacation. Back now. Looking at some of the post earnings this week. Even from tickers that posted last. Still seeing multi day runners like PDD DE HPQ did their respective directions seemingly as LULU has had we played one week out strikes most likely all would have printed and been ITM.

Just means all the more important going forward to watch the days with significant events. Such as the Friday before holiday weekend with important Econ numbers coming out same day.

Had a chance to glance at ASO and GTLB premarket this morning. Both were moving semi independent from broader market. Likely will watch those for multi day moves. And CASY that had a substantial beat. And also surpassed last quarter pretty heavily. Going to read their release in morning. Hope everyone has been making some money.

Earnings from this morning. Lovesac was a beat and is up 8.5%. J Pow is supposed to start talking at 9:10am and it’s supposed to be like a 40 minute discussion? We’ll see how pre-market starts reacting to his talk.

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Zscaler and Docusign both had good earnings up 15% and 17% respectively, if market continues to be retarded tomorrow, calls could open could be a play for a quick scalp off morning pop :pepepray:

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Watch DOCU 62 and 66 for a bounce as that has been great support over time. Resistance 68.50 and 70. Prob my top watch tomorrow

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Got sidetracked earlier was going to post the AH earnings results, so here they are!

DOCU, RH, ZS, and ZUMZ all seem like they might have some potential either short and / or long term.

Remember tomorrow is Friday! Anything high-dollar would probably be safer playing next week minimum.

Also in the morning there is Kroger’s I think.

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Going to throw a couple up here my 2 favorites are ZS and DOCU both beats. Both have been moderately beat down this year. Which means they could have some room to move back up.

Decent EPS beat revenue growth pretty strong. And increased Cash on hand pretty substantially. Mostly all numbers seem to be bullish.

ZS-WSJ average PT 205 80 percent buy rating. This one Id be leaning towards next Friday expiry for calls.

  • Revenue grows 61% year-over-year to $318.1 million
  • Calculated billings grows 57% year-over-year to $520.4 million
  • Deferred revenue grows 62% year-over-year to $1,021.1 million
  • GAAP net loss of $97.7 million compared to GAAP net loss of $81.0 million on a year-over-year basis
  • Non-GAAP net income of $36.4 million compared to non-GAAP net income of $20.3 million on a year-over-year basis

Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $318.1 million, an increase of 61% year-over-year.
  • Income (loss) from operations: GAAP loss from operations was $82.5 million, or 26% of total revenue, compared to $67.4 million, or 34% of total revenue, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. Non-GAAP income from operations was $38.1 million, or 12% of total revenue, compared to $20.6 million, or 10% of total revenue, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Net income (loss): GAAP net loss was $97.7 million, compared to $81.0 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. Non-GAAP net income was $36.4 million, compared to $20.3 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Net income (loss) per share: GAAP net loss per share was $0.69, compared to $0.59 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. Non-GAAP net income per share was $0.25, compared to $0.14 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Cash flow: Cash provided by operations was $103.1 million, or 32% of revenue, compared to $44.7 million, or 23% of revenue, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. Free cash flow was $74.8 million, or 24% of revenue, compared to $27.7 million, or 14% of revenue, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.
  • Deferred revenue: $1,021.1 million as of July 31, 2022, an increase of 62% year-over-year.
  • Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments: $1,731.3 million as of July 31, 2022, an increase of $228.8 million from July 31, 2021.

DOCU-WSJ PT of 68 and rating of hold. I could see this getting some upgrades in the AM which as we have noted is often times bullish. DOCU as well has been substantially beat down this year. And was largely previously substantially overvalued with pandemic bump. Numbers all look pretty bullish and will look at calls of JB support he called out above. Upgraded guidance which has also been strong with post er runs.

  • Total revenue was $622.2 million, an increase of 22% year-over-year. Subscription revenue was $605.2 million, an increase of 23% year-over-year. Professional services and other revenue was $17.0 million, a decrease of 11% year-over-year.

  • Billings were $647.7 million, an increase of 9% year-over-year.

  • GAAP gross margin was 78% for both periods. Non-GAAP gross margin was 82% for both periods.

  • GAAP net loss per basic and diluted share was $0.22 on 201 million shares outstanding compared to $0.13 on 196 million shares outstanding in the same period last year.

  • Non-GAAP net income per diluted share was $0.44 on 206 million shares outstanding compared to $0.47 on 208 million shares outstanding in the same period last year.

  • Net cash provided by operating activities was $120.9 million compared to $177.7 million in the same period last year.

  • Free cash flow was $105.5 million compared to $161.7 million in the same period last year.

  • Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investmentswere $1,129.6 million at the end of the quarter.

The company currently expects the following guidance:

• Quarter ending October 31, 2022 (in millions, except percentages):
Total revenue
$624
to
$628
Subscription revenue
$609
to
$613
Billings
$584
to
$594
Non-GAAP gross margin
79 %
to
81 %
Non-GAAP operating margin
16 %
to
18 %
Non-GAAP diluted weighted-average shares outstanding
205
to
210

• Year ending January 31, 2023 (in millions, except percentages):
Total revenue
$2,470
to
$2,482
Subscription revenue
$2,405
to
$2,417
Billings
$2,550
to
$2,570
Non-GAAP gross margin
79 %
to
81 %
Non-GAAP operating margin
16 %
to
18 %
Non-GAAP diluted weighted-average shares outstanding
205

Be careful on DOCU IV cool at open. If miss the actual drop can put you underwater pretty quick. With IV being 350 plus I’ll mostly look at strikes just OTM to find unloading of contracts of people trying to salvage anything with low bids. If don’t fill will wait for support also will watch premarket movement to see if either are divergent of SPY. Think we have some potential good ones here.

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KR had a beat raised guidance and announced a 1 billion share buyback. Pretty bullish could move some

Highlights
• Identical Sales without fuel increased 5.8%
• Operating Profit of $954 million; Adjusted FIFO Operating Profit of $1,110 million
• EPS of $1.00; Adjusted EPS of $0.90
• Company is executing its go-to-market strategy to deliver value for customers
° Our Brands identical sales increased 10.2%
° Digital sales grew 8%
° Accelerated our Fresh Produce Initiative with 864 stores now certified, driving higher identical sales

On September 9th, the Board of Directors authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program

Our second quarter results provide another proof point that Kroger has the right go-to-market strategy. Our consistent execution of this strategy is building momentum in our business which, combined with sustained food at home trends, gives us the confidence to raise our full-year guidance. We now expect identical sales without fuel to be in the range of 4.0% to 4.5% and adjusted net earnings per diluted share in the range of $3.95 to $4.05

ZS got some PT upgrades

Earnings data from this morning:

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All depends on market but update on plays today:
ZUMZ: Puts Resistance 24/26, Support 20.
ZS: Calls Support bounce 175/172, Resistance 180/188
KR: Calls Support bounce 49.50/48.50, Resistance 54.
DOCU(price targets coming out at 65 so might not be so bullish as others now and dropping in pre market): Calls Support bounce 63/66, Resistance 68/70

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KR call is going on now could still be going at open for anyone watching that. Likely wait to see what happens there.

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Also a reminder to all, it is Friday… Don’t get burned with 0DTE’s, buying next Friday is always safer.

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(Updated Level) All depends on market but update on plays today:
ZUMZ: Puts Resistance 24/26, Support 20.
ZS: Calls Support bounce 172/170, Resistance 178/180
KR: Calls Support bounce 49/48, Resistance 51/54.
DOCU(price targets coming out at 65 so might not be so bullish as others now and dropping in pre market): Calls Support bounce 63/65, Resistance 68/70

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