When I first saw VERU being talked about here at 8 something or whatever it was I assumed it was another pharma pump that would run up all day then ah dump to nothing or closer to where it started. Missed the early entry so stayed away from it but added it to watchlist. For the last week I watched it set higher lows and higher highs.
Led me into researching the company and the reason for the run up. Wanted to throw up what I have come to find so we don’t miss out on anything with potential for all to enter early enough. Unfortunately as we’d all wish I am sure the COVID isn’t going away. And it seems to have transitioned to a more let’s develop treatments type of situation now with government funding and fast tracking treatments as opposed to the already available vaccinations.
Their drug sabizabulin showed a 55 percent decrease in deaths by people that developed Adult Respritory Distress from COVID in a stage 3 clinical study. Such good results a 3rd party suggested halting the study because of efficacy being so strong. The company was given a fast track designation by FDA in January which in my understanding makes an EUA that much easier with good clinical numbers. They are already in negotiations with BARDA on government contract for purchasing. From my understanding this pill was used in more severe cases than the already approved #pfe and #mrk pills. So it is a first to market type of treatment. Here is a link to company statement.
Oppenheimer has given it a new price target of 36 dollars per share in short term.
Now to the actually stock movement itself. Every after robust days last week on Thursday it was halted down shortly after open. Then shortly ther after halted up with a huge volume candle with a 6.5 million dollar candle that shot the price up 16% this leads me to believe that it’s not solely retail running at this with volume like that. Maybe someone can provide the institution buys or insiders to help… It is a relatively small float for a pharma stock. Which leads to the likelihood of dilution as price starts to rise to increase capital.
I got into a starter position on this on Thursday and will likely look to add to it with May 20th 25c in hopes of a relatively quick FDA nod and one of those buy the rumor sell the news runs.
Any added input is greatly appreciated. Hope this helps
Great insight & awesome for the company to synthesize a product that reduces mortality for COVID. While I do agree that Covid isn’t going away anytime soon, we’ve made great strides in reducing the spread mainly through vaccines. I just can’t anticipate that we see a rise in another virulent & deadly strain of Covid for sometime, unless that specific strain which emerges can evade vaccines.
I agree. However there is a large segment of the population even vaccinated that even the current strain of covid can lead to mortality (elderly, comorbid etc) There is definitely more of a broad market for treatment as opposed to vaccination currently. Especially with the lack of current vaccine efficacy against delta and omicron. Treatment is the long term cure or prevention of death essential to COVID I feel.
While I do agree there is some retail pumping here also there is very little SI here which doesn’t mean much to most retail. The drug has yet to receive EUA or FDA approval all it did was release good clinical numbers. The 400 percent is also off a touch. It ran roughly 150% on that news and is up 200ish for the week. I think it does run up to FDA and then consummately sells off some
You’re right. I am mistaken about FDA approval. It was just release of trials. I’m actually surprised it took off just based on that information. Looking at that, I may consider some May or June calls for pending news. Until then I’ll likely play bear credit spreads since it runs to 17ish and runs back down.
That’s what made me start looking into it more. Usually you see the big runs with FDA approval then a drop. However once I saw it still didn’t have FDA approval just good studies leads me to believe there is some validity to the company and long term profitability from the drug. It does seem to touch 17 then retract however it hits it on big volume candles. for example the one I mentioned above that move the pricing 16 percent in minutes profit taking out of a halt up is to be expected. But the consistency of the daily higher lows and touching higher highs makes me think it could continually progress upward.
Yeah I hadn’t looked at OI or institutional buying etc. Most notably to me is this is not their only drug in pipeline currently they have some pretty significant medications and clinical studies currently. A lot of the covid type stocks are essentially one trick pony’s as it is said. They seem to have some stuff in the works. With being monthly’s plenty of time to exit I suppose with relatively low risk
I do happen to enjoy hedging and shorts covering. However I also do believe there are companies with innovative products or drugs or philosophies that go up or some that go down for the opposite. With the amount of volume on a more so overpriced ticker for today current retail that only ventures into most sub 10 dollar stocks. Ultimately feel there is some big buying going. Of course I am wrong a lot but do ultimately think this runs up more.
Haha whose every right in this market. I’ll prolly keep an eye out. Keep a super small investment and wait till closer to exp to bear credit spread. Just from IV I made 70% profit in 1 day from my spread last week.
Unless I’m mistaken it looks like their covid trial for the drug sabizabulin only had 40 patients in it. That is no where close to a big enough sample size for an FDA or EU approval. I know it’s a different drug but check out the HGEN thread, they had the same issue but with an even bigger initial sample size, somewhere around 300-400 people I think. I’d be careful with close dated calls. Ive even been considering getting leap puts here
Yeah I added puts at open today after seeing that pump. I’m no bio expert but I have followed a few bio plays over the past year and I’ve never seen an approval come off such a low sample size. I would be very surprised if that changed here. I’m betting they will deny EU approval and recommend they get more data off a larger population. At least that’s how I’m playing it. They also have earnings next week so keep that in mind if you decide to play it.
For what it’s worth Culper released a short report on Twitter for VERU today. It outlines pretty much why this is very likely not going to get any sort of approval. At work so can’t link it at the moment. But if you just search Culper on Twitter it will pop up. I’ll link it when I get home.
Thanks for putting this on the radar, got entry a bit late but I think it has a lot more room to fall. Short reports always affect the stock price even if there is no basis to it. With the news pop + this report I see further potential downside.
Thanks for dropping the link! I agree, I think it has quite a bit of room to fall still. It barely had much correlation to the massive eod spy run. Grabbed more 5/20 10p at end of the day. Looking to cover cost basis this week then hold the rest to see if it gets that EU denial knife