Hi guys! First of all, i’d like to point out that I am referring to a reddit post that was made 9 days ago in regards to this:
The VIX has been doing these weird spikes, completely random and are blasted back down immediatley. Here is the one from 6/24:
4/4 times before when this has happened, the VIX does this weird spike, and two trading days later the market absolutely dumps.
His most recent post ended up being correct, the spike happened on the 24th, and then take a look at what the SPY did on 6/27. Completely shit the bed downtrend all day.
Well what do you know, what happened this last friday once again:
That darn random spike happened. So far this thesis has held true 5/5 times. The previous dates were 6/25/2020, 12/3/2020, 11/22/2021, 4/19/2022, 6/24/2022, and now lastly 7/1/2022. Two trading days later, the market dumps.
If this holds true once again, we will be flat or green on Tuesday, and then dump on Wedensday. This could be completely random, but 5/5 times is getting pretty rediculous. This could also be signaling for the incoming volaltility on Wed the 6th due to FOMC.
Regardless, this play made money thanks to the poster Jloy88.
Here is how im planning on playing this and it’s all SPY options.
Currently i’m in long dated puts, 370P for 9/16 that I continue to add more to on any rally and sell when I like the profits.
Just incase on Tuesday evening i’ll open a small positon with just short dated puts just incase we dump hard.
Lastly, on FOMC day (what I always do,) ill be opening up an ATM straddle three minutes before release with 15% gain stop limits on both legs. It hasn’t failed me yet!
Anyways just wanted to make this post after this thesis has hit 5/5 times. I noticed the random ass spike on Friday again, and I want to see if we go for 6/6.
Peace gl to all tomorrow!