so I first created an options acc on Robin hood for the sole purpose to learn options when I joined valhalla. also made a webull account but for whatever reason haven’t been using that. I am going to transfer my funds from robin hood to webull and use cash account going forward after this weeks spy movement… if all goes to plan.
Anyway Ive been tracking spy for sometime now, been playing it off of the levels Ive been seeing, but failed to take profits when I should have and also failed to listen to even my own analysis against better judgement. learning as I go to trust what I see. Anyways my options account on robin hood was down to $150 last Thursday and was brought back to life by spy calls getting my account to roughly 1K. I tried to play 440 as my target for calls this week and it worked exceptionally well had I just bought dips instead of holding calls. selling for profit and reentering at better prices is something I must do going forward. It’s been hard with med school and step 1 trying to trade and analyze the markets moves and news, which is why i’ve only focused on spy to just concentrate my energy into one thing.
What I saw was a trend reversal after spy shot up from that 410 low on Thursday morning coupled with the story as old as time buy the dip sell the news. Russian invasion was a sell the news moment and buy the dip strategy for both retail and institutions.
Previously the last hard fall spy took was back in 1/24/22 to 420.76 and then took another hard turn around reversal after it came back to 428 (correction levels -10% off closing high) I said I could see spy going back up to 453 in coming week, I used 453 because typically and historically looking at the chart when the market goes into correction territory and when bear markets start to happen nothing falls straight through and there are cycles of small runs after deep dips that usually play around 5-6%. this is exactly what happened spy broke 453 and ended up double topping around 457 before the next downward move. Of course TA isn’t the sole mover of markets and this was coupled with news of rate hikes and Russian tensions starting to raise higher. I wasn’t able to play these spy moves and ended up holding puts for too long and got burned (need to take longer out expiries).
next downward move after that double top of 457 on 2/9 it took a while until 2/24 to complete its next significant downward move which was fully completed with the advance of Russian forces before beginning this reversal. the low was 410 and some change last Thursday. And what I used for my TA was the previous fall and looking at past bear markets to see where these small runs could take us. the previous run from 420 → 457 was $37 move around 8.8% off the bottom of 420.76. using that as a rough estimate gauge for a safe call entry on this reversal was how I came up with 440-447 range. $37 dollar move off the bottom of 410 or 8.8% around $36 = 446. I used 440 to air on the side of safety. in short I brought my $150 RH acc to about 1.1K on monday, didnt take profits like I should have went down 50% on tuesday’s dip got brought back up to 1K yesterday, and today I completely fucked up my entries and am down about 20% of my acc at around 800$ positions are all FDs
5 444 spy 3/4 calls - avg cost 1.27
1 440 spy 3/4 call - cost 3.00
2 UNG $ 19calls 3/18 - cost .2
these are my positions currently on my RH acc. if spy can swing to 440 today I will take profits on the 444’s and likely hold the 440 overnight in hopes of a gap up to complete what I think is the top of this short term reversal. After this i’m going to look to take 430 puts at least a few weeks out. Mainly because I firmly believe we are in the beginning stages of a bear market and inflation is running hot, war in Ukraine is likely to get worse, and rate hikes will probably have to get higher and more frequent. I’m probably wrong and don’t listen to me… lol
Whiplash journal entry 1.
going to make more but I am on vacation after taking the biggest exam of my life so probably going to ease up on trading after this week a bit once my positions are set.
