6 May merger vote with redemption deadline 4 May, 5pm ET, so NAV floor could fall away as early as 2 May.
Could be an interesting one for a puts play given trading performance of peers and very early-stage development profile with deliveries only coming in 2026
Will update as I do more research but the comps here are all despacs as well and as you can see from above they are trading 25-60+% below the original $10 SPAC NAV so this could definitely move.
Hopefully this will see movement between redemption deadline and merger vote but otherwise the risk to watch for is if redemptions turn out very high and it gets pumped in the short term post despac (which could also be another entry point for puts)
EVTL case study
Redemption deadline: 10 Dec (5pm ET)
Merger vote: 14 Dec (10am)
Despac completion and listing: 17 Dec
For the recent EVTL despac, you can see it started to trend down shortly before redemption deadline before bottoming out on the day of the merger vote and reversing to the upside subsequently (as it probably got pumped on talk of high redemption numbers) before finally trending down in the medium term.
I would expect redemption numbers for ZNTE to be pretty high as well (seeing as the EVTL / Broadstone numbers were reported to be around 95%)
Given that the price has climbed to ~$12, a 20% rise after hours, it’s possible that this will squeeze on Monday. Which should give a nice put entry at the end of the day.
With no actual deliveries planned till 2026 and revenue till 2024, this should hit the low single digits soon enough.
Agreed. Hoping for a big pump and some good entries on 5p and 7.5p, but it’s fair to expect IV will be elevated as well. Would you be looking at May or June expiration?
I would probably look at the June expiration as May 20 is a bit too close for comfort. And I’d probably get the 7.5P just in case it enjoys some of the positive attention EVTL is enjoying, unlike the others. What do you think makes sense?
June 7.5p is the only strike that should have a good amount of OI, indicated by the massive volume it had on Friday, so that’s probably the best bet. I think I’ll go with that.
June 5p could be very attractive if they drop down to 0.05 on a big pump.
Took some 7.5p at 0.60 and what do you know? It’s the only green thing on my watchlist, holding strong well above $11. Hoping this either crashes or pumps soon, but it seems discomfortingly resilient.
this is doing some cliff diving today although I’m not sure why given nothing much has changed haha. float is still small so there’s still a risk it gets pumped
I put in a low ball bid for some June calls. With a 1.9m float and trading at $6 this isn’t going to take much to pump it. I’m betting this is gonna get pumped over the weekend.
Reddit post on the shortsqueeze sub about this being low float (Reddit - Dive into anything) plus more volume today…could be worth watching. Took some July calls as a starter position just to see if retail pumps this any more.
I’ve been keeping an eye on the OI for this, some good volume on the July chain today. Would be the last chance for this to run as would be expecting the S-1 to be effective around start of August.
