25% Satisfaction - SPY and Momentum Overnight

[rexxxar]

This is SPY Weekly from 1998 to present…

As you can see, the market is still a ways above the 200MA trend (red line).
While I heed the warnings of senior analysts regarding a few more corrections, I think it will take a lot to effectively tank the market all of a sudden.
Some are looking to 2001 and 2008 for that -50% adjustment, but I am personally looking at 2015-2016 as my model.
So far, we’ve only seen that -12.34% correction. With that rejection at 458, SPY should be picking a clearer direction next week.

I am anticipating SPY to touch that 200MA sooner than later, but I’m not extremely bearish.
For now I choose spreads and take my gains every time I see them–5% is my average target daily.
We’ve seen AAPL, MSFT, and DIS (to name a few), who beat their Earnings and helped the market trade sideways or fill gaps on the upside.
Thus I think it’s safer to not hold positions overnight, unless you have a tight spread with a conservative exit strategy.

I can tell you this, this is not the time to gamble with penny stocks. Smart money rules here.

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Since my Sell Limit order got canceled today, I will probably satisfy myself with a 3-5% gain come Monday.
Next week is really interesting to me and I will be taking several trades.

Overall, account is up +28.27% this week. A bit over my 25% target.
Enjoy the weekend!

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Waaaazzzzaaaappp!
Today I just want to report that I’m trapped with my AMC straddle until this shit stock makes a real move again.
Retard buying strength is outrageous. Institutions are not playing it again probably until a few days before ER.

I was only asking for 3-5% today (was hoping it would flush down), but that didn’t happen, so let’s see if I can exit tomorrow.

The downtrend is clear though, as you can see in the 15min chart…

My stupid fingers should have just followed protocol and massaged that PUTs button to climax.
Near top/bottom edges of pink rectangle is the start of my profitability. Outside is better of course.

Anyway. I won’t be holding this position past Wednesday.
Since I’m hoping to start catching waves next week.
Nope, didn’t get to play SPY today either. Maybe Wednesday.

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Listened a bit to a compilation of Jordan Peterson’s talks regarding his struggles with the Christian faith, and I saw my rain out my window.
It abruptly stopped when I saw AMC’s range today.

Oh and I also started adding ER dates to my calendars. Look…

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Ok I might just be in luck tomorrow…

My entry was very impulsive for this play.
So far, the strategy on my theory is holding up real well.
All I need do is time my entries better.

My goal is No Losing Week this year.
Target is +15-25% gain per week on the entire port.
Very low risk strat. I believe I’ve struck gold. Just need better self-control.

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Was lucky to exit with minimal loss from that bad AMC entry, and SPY FOMC play pretty much balanced things out…

Now, I’ll be paying attention to this trend prior to AMC’s 4Q 2021 ER in March.

Took 1 straddle position on SPY today, $449 18thFEB22.
I considered NVDA’s ER this evening and the remaining uncertainty of the RU-UKR situation.
My target will be 5% gain exiting tomorrow morning.

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This is another reason why I’m staying cash this year…

SPY has multiple gappers, all the way down to sub 230.
The one just above 400 will defo get filled sooner than later.
But what I’m really looking at is the 286 to 291 hole in the wet frackeen wall.

That gap from May 14, 2020 is significant.
And it also falls near the 0.78 fib retracement line–a common bounce area for bullish reversals.

What will it take to drop the market down to that level is beyond me.

Here are the indicators on the Weekly…

MACD lines are no way near touching and seem to need to go below the histogram line.
RSI hasn’t touched the bottom end yet, and is in fact trying to cling to the middle lower area.
Volatility Percentile can cool down a bit further to the floor.
Stochastic %D is yet to fully retract to the floor as well.

What few leaps I hold in a few stocks are chosen really carefully.
The rest of my trades are quick scalps and very conservative straddles.

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Woke up to this 57% gain on that SPY straddle…

My target was only 5%.
God is good.
Praying that the RU-UKR situation to simmer down.

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Entered another SPY straddle, $439 22Feb22, priced at 9.30…

Considering tensions are still high, the momentum to the downside is still a viable play.
But I can’t dismiss any possibility of a short stalemate–in which case the market will defo attempt to recover on the bullish side.

Here’s the 15min chart…

Note the lower support lines in January (smaller yellow dashed lines).

I’m looking at these 3 possible scenarios for tomorrow and next week…

Ideally, I want to see SPY bounce from where it is right now, which is near the 0.6 line of the fib retracement of Jan 24 and Feb 2.
Should it break even more below that, I’ll be watching for the 428-429 line as the next possible bounce area.
Idea 3 (pink squiggly line) is the royal flush.

[rexxxar]

Here’s the S&P 500 today…

Until this finds a floor, I will remain cash every market close–except for straddles and trends toward ER.
The 8day MMA line has crossed with the 200day MMA.
I expect to see the 21day and 55day lines to follow soon enough.

While I do see small gaps in the SPX, I’m only trading SPY, so I monitor that closer.
Chart for those is posted above this one, few days back.

[rexxxar]

Just dumping some thoughts here…

This is SPX Monthlies from 1916 to 1955.

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SPX Monthlies from 1996 to 2016…

This era had the perfect storm against the stock market.
Dot Com crash in 2000.
US-Afghan war from 2001 to 2014.
Housing Market bubble poppin in 2008.

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Save for that decade of '69-'79…

The US Market was pretty much bullish during the Cold War 1947-1991 (debatable timeline).
That was the only notable decade which the market traded in the spooning position. hehe. ehem.

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I think trying to time the market’s absolute bottom is a fool’s errand.
What I want is simply to start accumulating at an ideal line, then gradually add to my positions at every 15% dip.
My entry will be when/if SPY hits around 390, since I’m looking at the possibility for it to go all the way down to 325 (I’m hoping to be 90% wrong regarding that bottom–and that above 350 is where it stops).

Should this RU tension escalate further, I won’t be expecting a bullish reversal until after 2 years.
That is also right on time for another Bitcoin Halving event.

If it’s another Talking War, then my June-Sept bottom should hit, if not earlier.

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Well, it’s a big red day…

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This is VIX from 1998 to 2003…

Me thinks this will be the same height it will peak at this year.
It doesn’t need to, but it just might.

And here it is from 2020 to present…

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Today I used SPY as a measure for my AMC exit…

Successful trade on discipline, with a little over 25% gain.
SPY had a big gap from its close of 421.95 yesterday, to the low open of 411.02.
For as long as it’s not a Friday–there’s a great chance SPY immediately fills the previous day’s gap.
It did it on numerous occasions before on other big bear days, it will always try to do so.
At least that’s how I read things based on the numbers.

Another thing it does is bounce hard 10, 15, even 20 full points from the lowest dip.
My template this time was January 24.
The idea is to control the price range.
SPY moves at an average of ~1.75% on the 200day measure, give or take.

I was looking at 425-426 as the area to beat today, before Biden’s scheduled speech at 12pm…

Geezer didn’t come out until what, 1:30pm?
The reporters did their best for the dude to spit out the golden phrase, “Ye. We gon to Wah.”
Joe held his dentures tight, so the violent bearish reversal didn’t come to finish the day.

I am not a fool to easily hope for a total bullish rampage in the coming days…

While the regular Daily candles show this to be a huge green day, I look to the recent history of January for additional guidance.

Switching to Heikin Ashi candles helps to see the Daily chart better as a huge dead cat bounce…

Those cat legs don’t look like legs, but they are. Just hairy and ballsy legs.

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TLDR:
I think we’re still on track of going further down.
It’s just being prevented from looking like an absolutely immediate market crash.
Expect to trade sideways tomorrow, if not lower.
If it’s bullish, then hey that’s fun too, yeah?

[whiplash]

I’m looking at 440 to maybe 444 as the top of this reversal and will be opening up some put monthlies around there as well as starting some put positions today if I feel a good entry and spy is looking weak just incase some crazy news comes out over the weekend.

[rexxxar]

Yeah, I think that’s a valid target…

What will confirm that of course is the break past 435.34.
Let’s see how she moves today.

[whiplash]

Yup absolutely, I’ll be taking puts around there in case it fails

[whiplash]

Got the puts now waiting

[rexxxar]

Nice. Same here. Got 8 so far.

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Chart AMC for an entire year…

Keep buying peak. FML

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I’ll be looking for a Long PUT entry on SPY starting today.