ALCC - Sam Altman SPAC merger

Similar play to DJT/DWAC ticker change, Smaller float (I think) than DWAC at 29m, Sir Jack a Lot is pumping it. High risk, high reward play.

Shareholder meeting to approve merger to be held on 5th May, don’t believe there is a date set for the actual ticker change.

From previous plays, the best entry point is early in the morning the day before ticker change.

After Biden signs TikTok ban into law, ByteDance says it won't sell the social media service - CBS News.

Altman has creds for sure. But is this timing good with the instability due to rates and inflation. Old saying about “sell and May and walk away”. so summer timing is odd.
This was mentionined earler in the day - don’t remember who. Would be interesting to hear comments from non pumpers on this.

Sir Jack a Lot is the pumper

Yeah I think the fact Sam Altman is backing it just adds to the “Hype factor”. I don’t know why but these SPAC ticker changes seem to cause pretty large gap ups. I don’t think its based on any sort of fundamentals, just some weird market mechanics.

Short interest is insignificant unfortunately, but there is a fair amount of OI on the chain.

DWAC to DJT did about +100% on the day before ticker change to open the next day.image

Hyped SPAC mergers get even more hype because for retail traders, it feels like you’re buying at or near the public offering price the closer you are to the $10 entry

lot of OI at the $10 sticke in puts too.
I am intrigued by this - you have an opinion <@196546072443748352> ? Hype or?
DJT is not a comparison as that is a special “special” thing rather than a real company

Guessing those puts are betting on a deSPAC drop below 10. This is a classic deSPAC play. But if the SPAC merger has enough hype or if the fundamentals are actually strong, then this is going up, not down.

I don’t know anything about Oklo but the premise of it sounds unique. Here’s the Investor Presentation for the merger:

<@256925347549806592> respect your ability to note problems with fundamentals. Can you take a look here before Friday and give an opinion? If you have time.

yeah exactly that the $10 OI is you nailed that. The premise is facinating, and if they do what they say, will be wildly successful. The tick is to get a feeling enough I can believe in. (whatever ultametly happens)

High level summary of what Oklo is and the SPAC merger:

Oklo intends to build small nuclear fission reactors, of initially 15 MWe and then scaling to 50 MWe, with its first Aurora powerplant opening in 2026/2027. There are non-binding plans for 2 more powerplants. This is a pre-revenue SPAC like most SPACs.

The merger includes a $850M valuation and $516M cash proceeds that go entirely to the balance sheet (none to existing Oklo shareholders). With an annual operating expense of $19.5M in 2024 and estimating to be approx. $34.5M by 2027, it sounds like there is low risk of further dilution.

Notable risk is whether they meet regulatory approvals in a timely manner.

scratch notes

  • Mission is to provide clean, reliable, and affordable energy on a global scale via “next generation” fast reactor technology
  • Screenshots of Sam Altman tweets in the presentation :skull:
  • Churchill Capital, the SPAC behind the LCID merger, is part of this. They use LCID as a case study but lol look at LCID now.
  • Oklo’s founders and AltC’s sponsor have a staggered lock-up over 3 years
  • Proceeds of the merger will go towards their first “Aurora” powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory
  • Sounds like their “unique” business model is a focus on small reactors (15-50 MWe) to eliminate complexity and cost
  • Non-binding commitments to pursue two 15 MWe Aurora powerhouses in Southern Ohio
  • Intensive regulatory work underway to support first deployment in 2026/2027 (no actual running business until first deployment). The footnote suggests that timely regulatory approvals is one of the main risk factors, which is understandable if this is innovative tech
  • Each 15 MWe plant costs <$60M with <1 year construction timeline
  • $850M valuation
  • SPAC merger includes $516 cash from AltC. All cash proceeds to go to Oklo balance sheet, none to Oklo shareholders.
  • Annual operating costs of $19.5M in 2024, est. approx $34.5M by 2027. This sounds like low chance of public offerings given the low annual expense and large cash position post-merger
  • Why go public now? Boost to balance sheet, partnerships, and public visibility
  • Expects to be profitable from first year of plant operations
  • Expects each 15 MWe plant to generate $13M annual revenue and $10M cash flow (76.4% cash margin)
  • AltC sponsor founder shares are only earned if share price goes up

Do I buy?
Honestly idk because I am not very familiar with this type of business model and technology. It does sound like “hype” to me at this stage. Personally I don’t plan on trading OKLO when it deSPACs.

Bote <@196546072443748352> regulatory approval is a VERY KEY word. The coal fired powerplant at Moscow Ohio (just east of Cincy) is Coal Fired because they could not get regulatory approval for nuclear fuel - so at great expense rebuilt. This was in the early 80’s. Its been the one main factor preventing more atomic power in the US.
If they do not have that, then they do not have a functional reactor to sell power from, and may never have it. Its hard work to get one.

One completely different point but something to consider is that these presentation decks are often inflated with super rosy looking figures and if none of us are real experts in the subject I don’t think we could really make the proper valuations. Alot of the EV decks were filled with tons of projections and figures that none ever even remotely were able to touch. So this SPAC deck presentation I would definitely consider with a major truckload of salt.

Also asking a few questions to understand their business. Their goal is to generate “clean energy” via nuclear power. Their designs starting with a 15MW design and scaling that up to 50MW?

From my cursory look into other types of traditional power plants of coal/gas/nuclear, this new design would be extremely small in comparison and generating far less power than their competitors. The fact that they are small in designs would theoretically allow them to be deployed in other areas not previously thought of.

Nuclear plants usually take like 6-8 years to build apparently but they are far larger than the ones considered here. The fastest one to be built took just over 4 years to build.

Digging a bit deeper into their numbers, their construction costs are based on a very very very optimistic and hopeful NOAK overnight cost of ~$3,600 per kW. And note Nth of a king and not FOAK first of a kind.

Overall I do like the idea that they pitch but the feasibility and profitability calculations IMO are by far waaaay too optimistic and I am still waaay out of my depth to really gauge anything realistic on how this could turn out.

However, my base thought is always skeptical and I would think that something like this would run into heavy resistance from regulatory agencies and getting the proper approvals.

OI seems to be building on the call sideimage

lol price action today. Pumped and dumped?

Oi still building, think entry point will probably be after the vote/ the day before merger.image

moving up now