ARYMF - promising penny stock Aussie Lithium producer mucking around in Nevada

The Company

Argosy Minerals Limited (ASX: AGY; OTC:ARYMF) is an Australian company with a current 77.5% (and ultimate 90%) interest in the Rincon Lithium Project in Salta Province, Argentina and a 100% interest in the Tonopah Lithium Project in Nevada, USA.

It’s a pre-production Li producer with ~$350M market cap with 1.3B shares outstanding. Daily volume is tiny, .

This bullish article gets most of the basics right, so please check it out for details. Summary of current situation.

  • Argosy Minerals’ Rincon Lithium Project is on budget and schedule for a mid-2022 production start of 2,000tpa lithium carbonate.
  • Strong lithium prices means Argosy can now potentially self-fund their expansion from 2,000tpa to 12,000tpa at their Rincon Lithium Project.
  • A look at potential revenue and net profit outcomes at different lithium price scenarios. Valuation remains exceptional.
  • With lithium demand surging and supply battling to catch up there is no better positioned lithium miner today than Argosy Minerals.

image

image

They are also somewhat active on their Twitter account.

The Play

I see this as a long term swing. This is the market action over the last year and a half - the period I have been paying attention to it:

I’d swung this twice in the past:

3/16 - Buy @ 0.04
9/22 - Sell @ 0.15

2/19/22 Buy @ 0.22
2/28/22 Sell @ 0.35

Had almost given up getting back in again because this moved quite well with lithium prices, but then recently started to fall as all kinds of smaller companies got punished. Can’t find any materially negative news - nothing more than what one would expect from a speculative miner, anyway. So when this got filled today, was quite happy:

6/14/22 Buy @ 0.245

I feel pretty bullish for this stock for a couple of reasons:

  • They seem to be plodding along with the 2,000 tpa production schedule, in which case they may not need to go to market anymore for funds
  • Secular increase in demand for lithium, as discussed in the Lithium thread
  • Higher highs and higher lows (in chart above)
  • Read somewhere there might be buyout interest in the Nevada mine
  • If nothing else, this should run up on the next lithium rally. And we know lithium fever isn’t going anywhere

Having said that, it could fall some more, for some more months, in case the market stays sour. We won’t have definitive good news till Q3 2022. Hence, have another limit buy set @ 0.20.

Warnings (apart from the fact that it’s a pre-production miner, which comes with its own set of risks):

  • This is another OTC (like SIRC) so all bets are off - might just go poof one day.
  • Extremely low liquidity - one of the two buy orders have taken more than a day to fill. If you have access to Aussie markets, liquidity there is 100x better.

#arymf

7 Likes

Well… $0.20 got filled fully and price is flirting with $0.30 again. Prices seem to have gone through the (badly drawn) channel and come back into it again. Not really much by way of news that I could find; here’s an overview from SA: Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha

Setting half to sell @ $0.30 and also buy order for as much at $0.20 again. Would be nice to reduce “cost basis” this way, if it works out.

3 Likes

Keeping the old channel lines, but there seems to be a channel forming. Still bullish on this ticker, but this could make for a wild ride.

1 Like

I’ll be curiously following your posts regarding ARYMF - and may enter in if your bullish trendline continues

1 Like

Half the lot obtained late June got sold last Friday ( just noticed the sell confirmation) at $0.34. Will ride the rest. It’s not like a real breakout or anything, and might be just moving up along with other Lithium tickers, but Argosy goes into production in Sep 2022 and should report decent numbers year end. So still looking to accumulate at sub $0.25 levels. (Trendlines below just for continuity from last time - they don’t mean anything anymore.)

2 Likes

Would have helped if I had remembered to set the buy order… price did go down to $0.25 and is back up to $0.38. Have set buy order at $0.25 now.

They are expected to start actual production in October. Timeline slipped a bit, and if it slips again, will provide nice entry point. Also, if markets tank before then, this should too. Hoping to pick up some more than.

4 Likes

.18 - .22 are great entries… will it drop down there? Let me do my stock dropping dance and I’ll let you know.

1 Like

Sorry @Castle missed your note earlier. Buy target of 0.25 never hit so couldn’t double down. Holding base position for now.

The company is progressing steadily, and lithium prices have held strong through the year. So expecting price to behave well as production finally starts, and the company starts generating revenue.

3 Likes

Been a while since I updated on this.

Long term sell order for $0.51 (~+64%) hit in early March; about 3/4 of the holdings got sold before price pulled back. Buy order filled for $0.31 (again), have another in place for $0.21.

Reason for this fall seems to be sharply falling lithium ore prices - 60% from its peak.

(Source)

The company itself is doing fine and is producing on schedule, so will use this as an accumulation opportunity. If anyone else wants to play this… do note though that this is a dinky little penny stock in the outback of Australia, so we’ll be the last to know if something really bad happens.

2 Likes

After thinking about these buys overnight, disposed of all ARYMF for about -10%, and cancelled any additional buy orders. The lithium market is much more opaque than CL or NG, so not going to risk it. The -10% eats into the +64% but still came out ahead, I suppose.

2 Likes

Haven’t played this in about a year and don’t expect to again. Closing out this thread.