This is a risky trade - could easily go to $50+ in the next few years with major catalysts, or could easily be in bankruptcy. But potentially a good long term hold for a small percentage of our portfolios.
More info to follow on the actual company and share structure. There is some surprisingly very good DD on both Reddit and Twitter that we can look to link to.
Editing in September 2022 to add comprehensive due diligence (with value calculator on the last page based on a number of assumptions) in the link below:
Brief update: share price has held up surprisingly well since the SpaceX announcement pop, and has generally moved upwards to around $10.40 today. This might not be a great place to start a long term position but there are some near term catalysts (March 31 business update conference call on which the company might announce tentative launch dates for this summer, possible FCC approval, an update as to the readiness of BlueWalker3) that could push this upwards further.
The actual trading portion of the public float does not seem very large at the moment, and this is decently shorted with the shorts about 17% underwater on average since the SpaceX pop. And again, there is a substantial retail following on Reddit and Twitter.
For a while, at least, this might be something worth looking at in the short term (for calls, puts, or just IV harvesting) even if long term entries don’t look great right now.
Great update, I agree that it’s not in ideal entry territory (at least for a long-term position). I was hoping to pick some more shares at < $9 but that just never happened. It would be interesting to see if it ever goes as low as it did a few weeks back any time soon since there are a few major catalysts coming up.
Will definitely add if there are signs of any pull-backs.
Orange Mobile released a partnership as well. Didn’t see any details outside a tweet. Probably the same as Rakuten and the other mobile service providers. Orange is one of the big service providers in Europe. I can see this run up on any slight confirmation that the launch is on time. There was a few weeks ago the CCO said they would be ready to launch in a few months which is why i think it’s held up so well.
Fourth quarter business update call is today at 5pm Eastern.
Given how much of the price movement over the last 6 months has been driven by sentiment regarding BlueWalker’s readiness and launch date, and the seemingly small trading float, I expect positive news (e.g., confirmation that the first launch with SpaceX is in June) or negative news (any delays, saying first launch won’t be until fall, etc.) could move the share price up or down $1 or more.
Might be a good straddle play, as IV seems low. Will defer to others on that.
I am holding a substantial long position (shares, warrants, and LEAPs, totaling about 10% of my portfolio) and will plan to buy the dip, if there is one. I don’t plan to sell any until commercialization (or failure).
With share lockups expiring this week, ASTS looks likely to fall below $10, which could present opportunities for those still looking for a long term entry.
With share price now having fallen to (and maybe stabilized) around $8, this is now a much better long term entry point. The drop seems to be more due to general reallocation away from pre-revenue tech, than selling from the share unlock.
I am going to be looking at opportunities for shares, warrants, and shorter dated calls.
There are several possible catalysts in the next 2-3 months, making this a potential short to medium term play for Valhalla. Going to start a new thread with DD on those catalysts. Hopefully the PTSD from ASTR isn’t too strong for some…
Getting very close to filling the gap on the daily. Not the best market conditions for long term plays but might be a good place to take a starter position. I just took some Jan 2023 7.5c
Any reason you are looking at ATM calls with an expiration that far out? My feeling has been that, depending on delays/BW3 tech performance, we are likely to see either $20+ by the end of the year (best case secnario), or below $5 by the end of the year, with not that many scenarios in between. That led me to go with OTM LEAPS.
This probably needs a real update soon, but in the meantime I’ll just mention that much of the price action this morning has likely been a single large short position being opened. 250k of the 400k and volume this morning has been short volume has shown by IBKR.
I think the steady creep up toward $9 will continue barring any delay announcement.
Bumping this thread simply to provide an update, for anyone who was considering building a long term position here, that in the past few months this company has had some major derisking events (FCC testing approval, confirmation that BW3 ground testing is substantially complete, launch date set for August 15), and yet share price has gone from nearly $9 to hanging on to $6. Based on the timing of the dip it doesn’t seem to be related to the share unlocks (the dips came weeks after, with little change in volume from before). Insiders do not seem to be selling.
This is seemingly just riding the macro waves.
One way to look at this is: “well there won’t be any launch- or technology-related positive catalysts for a while so shares could drop lower.” That is certainly a legitimate concern.
On the other hand, there are some positive catalysts that could drop any time (although should be noted they are more likely after launch and LEO testing): 5G fund or other government funding (thereby drastically reducing risk of future dilution), announcement of a debt facility or other injection of capital from a current major holder like Vodafone, etc.
I am adding some shares in my “set it and forget it” passive account here.
Things have continued to develop positively on the launch front, as the BW3 satellite is complete, and has left Texas to go to California for final testing. On track for launch via SpaceX in mid-September:
The stock has also become heavily shorted, and with volume drying up, days to cover has been consistently over 20. This is a potential short squeeze candidate in the short term running up to launch, especially if cost to borrow continues to rise (from 15% a couple weeks ago). It previously squeezed from $6 to $11 in March of this year on arguably less bullish PR than we might see over the next few weeks:
In less positive news, the company has accelerated cash burn and will definitely be looking to raise capital this fall to be able to finance building and launching Phase 1 of the constellation in 2023.
First big movement in a long time today in response to fairly minor news. Had previously been stuck between 5.90 and 6.80 for almost two months. If this goes much above 7.60, a squeeze is possible given the 20+ DTC and the fact that time is running out before some expected positive catalysts.
Getting continued positive coverage from Scotiabank:
I am expecting more PR to be coming in the next few weeks both from partners (American Tower, Vodafone and Rakuten), and from the company itself regarding progress with the BW3 satellite launch.
ConqDTC is showing 2.7 days for me. I don’t know exactly how it’s calculated, but I know it takes into account potential increases in volume.
I am still seeing ~11.5 million short shares, and volume that has been consistently below 1 million since mid-June.
Volume in February/March was similarly consistently below 1 million before the March squeeze, but of course spiked to 53 million on March 9th and then stayed elevated for a while.
In any event, I think the current SI and DTC is sufficient for a squeeze (as evidenced by March) IF a catalyst hits or the share price continues to grind up.
