Seems to be forming a bottom in the low $4s (fingers crossed). I have been rebuilding my position for the zillionth time (and started doing so too early, as always) after the recent pop on unfurling news.
This might be the ideal time to start or build a position in terms of derisking and low share price. Not much likely to happen for the next few weeks, but 2023 could be make or break (tech testing and associated PR, funding from MNOs, potentially more dilution, launches) - wouldn’t be surprised if share price is $20+ or below $1 by end of the year.
Regarding warrants vs. leaps, the warrants have been relatively expensive lately. Currently trading at $1.70 while you can generally get 10c or 12.5c expiring in 2025 for the same or lower price. The warrants give you more liquidity and one extra year of theta, but the risk of being redeemed at a point that limits your returns.
My position is entirely in shares (average in the high $6s, ugh) and 2025 20c (average of $1.35 or so) though I have considered rolling the leaps down to a lower strike.
I have the Jan 2024 5c on my watchlist. For some reason I just haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Feel like it’s a fun bet with a decent r/r at this level.
My concern with January is that you might be a victim of the macro and there’s a good chance we still don’t see any testing results or PR until February/March. We will almost definitely see something in Q1, but maybe not January.
Glad we finally got an update… With how the Sp has fallen this past month I was half expecting them to announce that their satellite was a dud or was blown up or something, jesus. Seems like everything is ok as of now and on track for testing early next year…
New video from AT&T/AST, might be an indicator of more AT&T PR to come. Seems unlikely they’d release this if testing were not going well/to AT&T’s satisfaction.
Considering AST’s Phase 1 project costs would be small percentage compared to AT&T’s annual capital expenditures for expanding coverage, this is encouraging.
Did you notice the dates for full coverage of US on their recent presentation had 2023/2024 as well? Seems like they may pivot away from equatorial coverage to cover more US/Mexico with the first block BBs? Idk, but I’m seeing a lot of speculation about doing so to capture 5G fund for rural America or funding from ATT itself but that’s all it is, speculation for now. It is nice to see att promoting/pumping ast though lol
Chris Sambar is the AT&T executive in charge of FirstNet, and has budget making authority for a majority of AT&T’s capital expenditures…
Pretty crazy to be close to all time lows when you have an institutional partner that is capable of financing the entire satellite constellation pumping the ticker on social media. Bizarre.
Don’t know what’s causing this surge today (up 8%) but the article below just went up on BBC this morning. Starting to get some mainstream coverage, perhaps leveraging AT&T’s and Vodafone’s media teams.
Looks like “earnings” are Friday premarket. Looking forward to see what updates they give. Hopefully we get some idea of how testing has been going. Still holding a bunch of shares/warrants and bagholding some worthless May calls. Waiting to see what updates they give before entering back into leaps.
Reviving this thread to see if anyone else is still long ASTS and want to discuss.
I recently got into a “full” position of 3,000 shares at $3.13 cost basis after Google and Vodafone announced their strategic investment into ASTS which was followed by an immediate $100M share dilution, which I took as a great opportunity to enter.
Since then, ASTS announced that they landed their first revenue-generating contract through a government prime contractor utilizing the BlueWalker 3 which is a prototype satellite that is currently in orbit at this very moment (and which they used to already test and confirm that the tech works) which has started reviving the stock price.
Upcoming catalysts
February 13, 2024 10:30 AM EST: FirstNet is doing a presentation about how they are evolving their Emergency Responders line, which is speculated to include new funding and/or partnership with ASTS to make this happen. There are a lot of breadcrumbs about this, but is ultimately speculation. That being said, I am not intending to take any calls or anything, just gonna hold my shares. https://twitter.com/FirstNetGov/status/1755695567815000215
June 2024: BlueBird Block 1 (Satellites #1-5) is expected to launch via SpaceX Falcon. These will be the first 5 satellites out of 90 required for global coverage. However, ASTS is notorious for missing scheduled milestones so again, I am just gonna hold my shares, which are intended for long term anyway. https://nextspaceflight.com/
Chris Sambar is the Head of Network at AT&T, which I just found out is is the largest wireless carrier in the US with a 46.91% market share. In the interview with Abel Avellan (CEO of ASTS), he sounds very optimistic about ASTS. Also notably, at 4:58 in the interview he said: “Is there really a competitor, Abel? I don’t know that there is at this point.”
Abel also confirmed Block 1 launch will be “this coming quarter”, and then also doubled down on his statement to Rakuten that there will be 4 launches every month after that in 2024 and 2025. This sounds overly optimistic. Not quite sure why he’s saying that and doubling down if it’s just hot air. We’ll see.
One possible way to fund such rapid satellite launches is that AT&T will be backing it, depending on how well the Block 1 + BW3 satellites go:
