The short report might be part of the reason for the recent drop, but I’m not giving it too much attention. It seems hastily written and isn’t really covering any new ground: they went and found engineers who don’t like AST or their tech for any variety of reasons (many of whom are already known to AST and its investors, or are direct competitors).
This is could be the equivalent of asking legacy automakers in 2010 what they thought about the viability of Tesla’s tech in the EV space. Of course they’re not going to be bullish.
If they raised new technical issues, that would be concerning. But they didn’t. This remains a risky investment - either the tech works (in which case the TAM and business case are very compelling) or it doesn’t. We will hopefully know in a few weeks. In the meantime, with the share price at $8.50 it’s a lot less risky than it was at $10.50 (or $13.00) so recently.
Damn this took quite the drop from 14. Hindsight obviously 20/20 but should have took/held more puts. Have to remember this is a pre-rev tech stock which, in current macro conditions, is getting hammered. Market cap is still quite high but I’m jumping into May 2023 10c by that point we “should” know 100% if the tech works or not based on their timeline. We also should know this week if unfurling of their test satellite was successful or not. If successful I’ll be adding significantly to my may call position or even start an even longer out OTM call position. With sp at 6 the r/r is very attractive. Will add to my core share position on any dips under 6 and looking to sell my options on any run we get. GL, hopefully we get another pop soon
Ah was looking for a reason we’ve fallen so much the past week. A lot of people were speculating that unfurling was a failure but looks like it’s just been delayed. Should have known, space is hard and timelines usually don’t work. Unfurling should (knock on wood) work fine but when they have missed the past couple deadlines when they said it would happen I suppose people get anxious and sell off. New window is for late next week
Preliminary earnings were released this am. Nothing new to note basically same as last earnings. Full report will come mid Nov. Unfurling is scheduled for Nov. 10th when solar conditions are optimal. SI is back to around 30% which is where it was before it’s last run from 6-14. I’m scaling into various leaps in anticipation of another possible run.
Coverage initiated/buy rating given by B Riley this am with a price target of 15. I dont put much thought into price targets but it’s good to see the additional coverage. Unfurling/full earnings coming in the next couple weeks. Done adding to position now and waiting until after unfurling to add anymore.
First, I’ve attached the full B. Riley report detailing the $15 price target. In reading it, what is surprising is how unconcerned they are with technical risk. Either implies “they know something” or they are simply putting a lot of faith in the judgment of Vodafone/AT&T/AMT/Rakuten/Nokia.
Second, those who are following AST closest are expecting unfurling some time in the November 8th-11th window. This lines up with good solar weather and crossing orbits with a second satellite that is likely being used to take pictures of the unfurling stages.
Once unfurled, will probably be a few (or several) more weeks for antenna deployment and for the company to start being able to share data and (hopefully) demonstrations of phone calls.
Yeah I’m expecting/hoping to hear successful unfurling Monday during their earnings call… in the meantime one of you fucks get outside with a telescope and start looking for it over the weekend
Yet again, share price has faded since the pump on the most recent derisking event (successful unfurling).
Next two potential catalysts:
(1) Testing results or a demo of BlueWalker3 showing its broadband capabilities (may or may not be made public
(2) Announcement of how the first phase of BlueBird satellites will be financed (ideally with favorable convertible debt, or perhaps even a credit facility supported by institutional partners or MNO credit support)
In the meantime we may be able to expect more analysts initiating coverage or revising their price targets. Speaking of, Deutsche Bank has raised their PT to $32 post-unfurling as of this morning:
Looks like the offering at 5.50 was keeping the price stabilized. Once closed the Sp has had some serious selling pressure over the last few days. Could be tax loss harvesting since we’re at EOY and trading at ATLs but who knows. Imo it’s a bit dramatic and overdone but the market doesn’t care what I think. Im not seeing any other bad news as of today. We’ve also had some insider buys/insider awarded shares in lieu of cash which is nice to see. Looking forward to initial testing results in the next couple months and maybe a test call/text from ceo even sooner. I already have quite a big position here so im not going to average down anymore until we see some consolidation but imo anything under 4.5-5 dollars is an amazing deal. GL and remember this remains a zero or hero stock so manage risk accordingly
