Whole heartedly agree. Wouldn’t be surprised by bullish momentum in the near future but overall nothing defines BBIG more than waiting until the headlines are dominated by how NFT’s have lost 75% of their value to actually pull the trigger on this.
I’ll consider calls tomorrow depending on how it trades and join the put brigade longer term.
For the record, several of us made some very good money playing BBIG puts last fall/winter. We can do it again if we just believe (that BBIG is still full of shit, which it is)!
I was thinking he same thing while reading the news above. There’s likely to be a rally in the short term (unless we have another SPY bloodbath tomorrow), so scalping some calls might be a great idea before settling into some puts for the longer term.
Not taking a position until I see how things go tomorrow near open.
That new guy Feline Connoisseur makes sense here.
Thanks for sharing these screenshots of his responses to dibbles on TF.
How are you, man? Haven’t seen you in a long while.
Wanted to share an assortment of things that came to mind.
First, some days of this will probably be more important than others:
Friday May 7 (obviously) - since this is the first trading day after the press release. Fans and retail encouraged by furus will FOMO in. This will be the first crucial test of how much sentiment there actually is behind BBIG. Folks have been waiting for months for this Cryptyde dividend. The spoiler though is that BBIG has a float of 120M shares. This is no 0.5-2M mini-float that can be whipped around - this will need proper sentiment. If we are not able to make it past the $3 handle, I would be worried about the long term prospects.
Monday May 9 - folks will have all weekend to whip up sentiment. If Friday doesn’t end up in the stratosphere, will probably take a long position over the weekend in some form.
Friday May 13 - this is the T-2 ex-dividend date that corresponds to the “of record” date of Tuesday, May 17 for the dividend. If one does not own the stocks by the close of trading on May 13, they will not get the dividend. After this IV will likely adjust downward. May 12 may therefore be a good time for vega plays and milk that premium overnight and into the next day. It is quite likely that the price will come back down to earth after this.
(Around) Friday May 27 - this is when the dividend shares will be distributed. At this point, the play should be over. However, will reserve thoughts on this until I see how the next two weeks play out.
Second, some technical stuff:
Prices went up to $4 AH and then fell back to ~$3.60 at 8pm EST despite healthy AH volume. Normally AH volume is low but there clearly is enough liquidity there. Actual squeezes might therefore be difficult.
The short positions are not trivial - it might lead to some short covering. In fact, some of the AH price action might have been short covering already, given the relatively robust volume.
Call OI exists in decent amounts for tomorrow, but even if all strikes were ITM, it adds up to 6.9M shares. Float is 120M. Could result in a gamma whiff, but nothing more. Certainly not a gamma squeeze. Even that is unlikely, since we know MMs don’t really bother actively hedging these anymore. Later OIs are more anemic.
Third, here’s the link to the tl;dr thread on the BBIG sub: https://www.reddit.com/r/BBIG/comments/r8u33r/bbig_know_what_you_hold_part_4
Would encourage folks to check it out and reflect on this play as we go forward. As you can tell, I am treating this as a sentiment pump-and-dump. Could be very wrong on this. There are a lot of moving parts. Cryptyde could indeed be some kind of amazing catalyst. Let’s keep the critiques flowing.
Finally, there are some real shady mofos involved in this BBIG. Need to look up details at some point, but would not put it past them to do raises or other stuff that can torpedo the play. So will be looking to take profits often, if they materialize.
The sell-off in the morning, as well as the one AH, are probably people looking to get out after being stuck for months. Between the low confidence in a significant part of the BBIG crowd and the high volume, if this consolidation does not break to the upside, this might become a damp squib.
As for plays, got 3.5C 5/6 lottos for 0.05 at open and flipped half for 0.11, letting the rest ride to the end. Have not traded the Dec ITM calls yet.
Normaly I would say no considering everything would already be priced in regarding the releasing of the reccord date. But considering that the run got fucked by market condition, a run like you say is probable.
However, if I were to take a position, I would buy calls ITM at a small portion. This company’s administration cannot be trusted.
In a general sense, dilution would be a move to raise cash that they can spend to expand the business, buy out other competitors or allow for someone else to buy into the company.
That being said, for the case of BBIG, they probably want more money to buy more companies. If you look into their history they have bought tons of little companies albeit I don’t think any of those have ever really paid out for them.
Maybe some wsb style fools will once again think the dividend will result in the “squeeze” like Overstock or fool enough folks into buying shares for a pump.
I personally wouldn’t touch it until I see another big run up then play it to the downside. The company has absolutely no redeeming qualities when looking at their financials.
I got rid of 80% of the BBIG Leaps at buy price because the price action is just anemic. Holding the rest “just in case”
Also got a few 5/20 2.5P because after today, there should be no demand left for the ticker. So should crater. IV is > 200% though… so rather risky play.
While the general refrain online is “shorts are finally covering!” it is more likely based on optimism based on pricing showing up in the very illiquid market of TYDEV and BBIGV. These are tickers NASDAQ allows to trade (see below) until the actual distribution happens, and helps set a market price for both tickers.
Technically, BBIG should equal to BBIGV+TYDEV. BBIG closed at $2.86, BBIGV at $2.57, and TYDEV hasn’t traded yet but has a listing price of $15 at some brokers. The price differential between BBIG and BBIGV suggests a TYDE price of ~$3.
Here’s the thing… the TYDEV market is very, very thin. Unless someone who got distribution offers much of it, it will likely trade at an inflated value. This means that BBIG could enjoy tailwind for another two weeks before it collapses. June puts are therefore probably still fine, but May ones - probably not.
The ex-div date has been moved to May 31st, with Monday being a holiday I think you’ll need to hold shares at EOD Friday 27th to get TYDE. Might play the run up and switch to puts on Friday.