Redemption deadline is 1 Feb 5pm ET so assuming settlement mechanics of T+2, the NAV floor should start to fall away today and this could see some downward movement.
This could follow the trend of recent despacs and negative sentiment around speculative growth names with its negative/marginal profitability for 2022/23.
May be a bit late to the party here so depending on opening price action you may want to just short shares or sell a credit spread and get in/out before merger vote on 3 Feb. I personally have not opened a position yet.
Puts are very expensive.
If it comes down massively it could be an interesting setup for a long hold.
The whole millitary/weapons romantizising could resonate with a lot of people, they could have good growth prospects.
Columbia has also failed to deliver on coffee beans as well.
With bad crop yields the price of coffee beans will rise leading to a higher cost to import. Wondering if this would impact earnings for the company or if they could just raise prices to compensate would love some input from anybody familiar with agriculture.
Just checked the put pricing and iv is insane a longer put wouldn’t be worth buying maybe selling calls would be a better.
This reminds me of Core Scientific (XPDI) when it went down sub 9 on floor unlock and back to 10 next few days before going mid 5’s. I wouldn’t pay more than 0.75 for those 7.5’s closest exp. Even those are too expensive. This is my third round trip in them, was in and out prior to their floor unlock.
Something to look out for is Starbuck’s Q4 earnings call and guidance for 2022.
Black Rifle is supposed to be valued at $1.7B with this merger which puts them at a P/S of 7.4 for their estimated 2021 revenue, well above what Starbucks ever did in the past 5 years. If they hit their 2022 targets, they will be at 5.46 which is on the higher end of what Starbucks has traded at.
I’m not sure if Black Rifle is still ok with the Trump crowd, but given this is an election year, I could totally see them hitting their forecast. Also given what we’ve seen on DWAC, valuations may not matter. I echo the sentiment here that puts are overpriced and potentially dangerous.
That being said I did put in a bid for some CCS at 7.5/5, but I don’t expect it to be filled.
This is interesting… Merger approved with transaction expected to close on 9 Feb. However, they have extended the deadline to allow SPAC holders to withdraw their redemption requests to 5pm ET on 8 Feb
I’d be very careful with trying to play puts on this, I think playing lotto calls on the $12.5 will be a better play.
With the current rally of TRUMP stocks like DWAC and CFVI you might see a sympathy pump with SBEA. Given that’s calls are extremely cheap and the fact that it hasn’t dropped yet at all after the floor was removed (lowest was $9.10) i wouldn’t expect it to fall unless theirs massive drops in SPY. The stock rallied about 16% on FEB 3rd and i expect it to rally again when it changes tickers given the current rumble and trump social sentiment. Photos like the ones i posted above may circulate and you’ll start seeing people pump it. If you really wanna play some puts i’d suggest putting like 15-20% on the $12.5 C as they are very cheap and if your plan doesn’t workout you’ll make so money back. Black riffle coffee has very loyal customers and is expanding heavily. Here’s some pictures from their investor presentation it’s not bullshit imaginary shit like other spacs. With the current trump enviroment i’d say don’t play any puts it would be very risk especially with the high premium. Check out their presentation https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0678/8333/files/BRCC_-_January_Analyst_Day_Presentation_1.18.22.pdf?v=1643235406
I think I agree. I can see this run on sentiment. Some notes:
Strong social media following.
“Familiar” business – they’re a coffee company.
They’re owned by former members of the armed forces of the United States.
Gross profit margins of ~40%.
Revenue and profit growth of ~40%.
Negative EBITDA in 2021 and 2022, but expect to be positive in 2023. However, they were positive in 2019 and 2020.
Compare this with something like ESSC where it’s just a SPAC with a sketchy Chinese company. My understanding is that a key ingredient that helped stocks like GME and AMC gain sentiment was that they’re familiar and relatable businesses.