Agree with the OTLY and BYND comparisons somewhat, but the other seem really weird.
I could understand leaving it out of the PE analysis, but surely the revenue multipliers it would be good to throw in SBUX as a base and DNUT as a comparative which you could argue is in a similar growth mode? I think SG is also a good comparative here.
After looking at those tickers, I don’t see how $BROS and $BRCC aren’t going to crash back to reality. Even with impressive CAGR, they are still overpriced for years to come.
I have to give props to BRCC, this stock has been flat as a rock even with SPY sinking and all the Russia volatility.
I bought back some $10 CSPs this past week because the price was low enough and figured I could use the capital better elsewhere. Still holding some, will probably buy back this week if I can get .10 or better.
Already thinking about selling some APR-14 CSPs, but I will wait till after their earnings call on Mar-16 just in case the stock decides to dive.
It means there will be massive dilution as all warrants must be exercised by the deadline. The warrants were 1/1 as well which really sucks for BRCC shareholders.
Up to 17,766,641 share dilution. However, with a cashless conversion I am not sure how many shares will end up in the float. Maybe there’s a way to math this out.
In this section of the 10-K it describes a conversion of 9,926,563 shares in March 2022, but I am confused from the wording if whether these ended up in the public float or not.
This screenshot of the share structure is pulled from Platypus’ tweet but I wasn’t able to find the source. Either way, if true, it means the float is at least 7.6M, and it is unclear whether the other shares are unlocked. Mimir/Finviz didn’t have the answer either.
The Warrants may be exercised on a cashless basis by the holders thereof until 5:00 p.m. New York City time on the Redemption Date to acquire fully paid and non-assessable shares of Class A Common Stock underlying such Warrants. Payment upon exercise of the Warrants will be made on a “cashless basis” in which the exercising holder will receive a number of shares of Class A Common Stock to be determined in accordance with the terms of the Warrant Agreement and based on the Redemption Date and the volume weighted average price of the Class A Common Stock for the ten (10) trading days immediately following the date on which the Redemption Notice is sent to the registered holders of the outstanding Warrants (the “Redemption Fair Market Value”). The Company will provide holders notice of the Redemption Fair Market Value no later than one (1) business day after such ten (10) trading day period ends. In no event will the number of shares of Class A Common Stock issued in connection with an exercise on a cashless basis exceed 0.361 shares of Class A Common Stock per Warrant. If any holder of Warrants would, after taking into account all of such holder’s Warrants exercised at one time, be entitled to receive a fractional interest in a share of Class A Common Stock, the number of shares the holder will be entitled to receive will be rounded down to the nearest whole number of shares. Warrant holders may not exercise Warrants and receive shares of Class A Common Stock in exchange for payment in cash of the $11.50 per Warrant exercise price until a registration statement covering the issuance of shares of Class A Common Stock upon exercise of the Warrants for cash under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), is declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). The Company filed a registration statement on Form S-1 with the SEC (Registration No. 333-263627) to register the issuance of shares of Class A Common Stock upon exercise of the Warrants for cash under the Securities Act, but the registration statement has not yet been declared effective by the SEC and the Company cannot give any assurances that the SEC will declare it effective prior to the Redemption Date. To the extent the registration statement is declared effective by the SEC prior to the Redemption Date, the Company will inform Warrant holders of the procedure to exercise their Warrants for cash and receive shares of Class A Common Stock in exchange for payment in cash of the $11.50 per Warrant exercise price.
Depends on the VWAP for the next 10 trading days but assuming it stays above $18, it looks likely to be .361 shares per warrant exercised which when multiplied by the 17.8m warrants implies a max dilution of 6.4m shares.
Float at the moment should be around 7.6m shares as per my earlier post but at a very minimum the PIPE (30m shares) should get unlocked once the S-1 goes effective. There’s a chunk of 140-150m shares in common units which are convertible into Class A shares but I believe most of these are held by the founder team and should be locked up for 6 months post closing until 9 Aug 2022. Sponsor shares of 4.8m should unlock then too.
this was great DD by you and Kevin. i’ve just been looking at the ticker on and off and not understanding why the underlying price was moving. just another example of always checking the forums first! hope y’all got in on puts as this extremely well thought out.
