I want to start watching this for next earnings. We missed a huge opportunity to ride it down even after ok earnings came out as sales dropped 20 to 25% due to a bad PR campaign. I am looking for the next decent push up or see how it trends with SPY to start adding out entries. I will look at ones that are about a week after next earnings and swing this. The hurt will prob come out next earnings but market is pricing this in now. Entry will matter on this play.
Also take into account TAP has been in downtrend for last 5 days so we need to review how the beverage market is trending with this too.
I’m curious to know more about the 23% decline in sales in the weeks since the promo. The promotion also coincided with march madness during which sales would have been up (19-20% across the market is one figure I found), so I wonder what the net decline due to the boycott really is. If Guinness put out an LGBT promo the week of St. Patrick’s Day you could point to a massive decline in their sales in the following weeks but you’d be misattributing the cause.
Good point. This play needs a lot more research so I will look to add more tonight but people need to be careful just jumping in after it has dropped from about 67.
Remember that BUD took a hit prior to all this new backlash when they couldn’t sell beer at the Qatar World Cup and donated all of the unsold product to the winning country.
58.75 support has held last few days too. Watch for that 60 break or rejection. Also watch volume. This may be near support unless more news breaks and or earnings a few months from now.
My worry is 58 is bounce territory but could see 55 soon. I think needs another news catalyst tho. Been downtrend most of the day so sentiment prob still low. Watch the daily volume on this too. Once that dries up we could see a bounce z
from SA so take with a grain of
So more articles are coming out. Analysts expecting earnigns to slide 26% this year and sales down 28.4% week ending May 13th worse than before. Their strongest brand Michelob is now also doen 6.8%. Other rivals are up 15% miller lite and Coors up almost 17%. I might grab a few puts for 1-2 weeks out on this news today. Watch how it trends with SPY. If we get a pop from Debt ceiling resolved soon it will be interesting to see how this moves too
Did you see the recent article where they are having to buy back a large amount of expired unsold product back from stores? That can’t be good for the bottom line.
lol it was cases for like 3 to 5 bucks. Its going to hurt next earnings, but some are saying its on a discount and PT in the 70’s. I think this isnt going to go away as quick as they are saying.
Seeing BUD for the most part attached to SPY. The continued hurt in sales news doesn’t seem to quickly drive this down. Will wait for a good push up to add. Pretty much break even still on puts a few weeks out. Might close for green if it drops then wait for better push up then take puts to expire after next earnings. No changes for now tho
Might close these at open. A decent drop from more bad sales numbers. They in for a world of hurt.
When did you say next earnings on this was? August?
Aug 3rd I am seeing for now
One thing the recent articles mention is that cases are seen as low as under $4 for a 24 pack. They said if this promo doesnt help them and all the product being returned for the summer, which is a big time for them and memorial weekend. This should set the trend even further down if the sales numbers keeps reporting down 25% to 28% ish.
I saw they were giving free beer to vendors trying to win their business back. I wonder how big of a scale that actually was. Another interesting thing I saw recently as well was a craft beer company they bought not long ago just bought themselves back from AB. Not really sure on if the original owners wanted to distance their product from AB from the backlash, or if AB let it go because they could use the money.
possible its all the above but we all know craft beers and seltzers have been really taking over the market for years now and the share price of BUD also shows that. Maybe some saw hints at what they were gearing towards too but not sure. They have gotten into craft and seltzer too but their sales in that vs all the major brands are no close to being popular vs white claw, truly, etc. Anheuser busch does own goose island and elysion bewing too. Michelob was/is decently popular but also taking a hit now.