I’m concerned about Apple earnings though I feel like the news they released with the share buyback they may be covering missed earnings, I do believe the worst case though is spy we’ll just remain stagnant if that’s the case.
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Watching TDOC today for puts as it pulled a NFLX after earnings yesterday. It’s still shaking off covid valuation and has room to fall.
That being said,I’m bullish on them long term and will likely add shares when it settles to long term port.
Also watching ARKK for same, as TDOC is a big holding.
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I was talking to Jekyll about this earlier. Personally, I’m not sure how much further TDOC drops on this. However, ARKK is only down 1.3% in PM. If the market turns red and pulls TSLA down, I think ARKK could take a big hit.
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Bought XLE last night. Saw that it touches a $71 low before bouncing back up. Similar movement was seen in March. May be a good are to but May-June calls for swing.
Personally bought June as theta is going to be more noticeable on May calls soon.
I plan on doing quick FD put scalps on TDOC , it fell hard enough to spark some panic and I’m expecting a drop at open. Maybe it recovers but I’m here for a good time not a long time
ARKK has been a bear favorite of mine around earnings like this. I’m in total agreeance that ARKK is likely the safest and best play for this currently. Options strikes are weird but it usually pays well.
I feel the same way, must be missing something. I posted it for people to see it and hopefully give some opinions on why the stock isn’t even ver a dollar already
TDOC and ARKK we’re great scalps at open.
After TDOC halt I’m not touching either anymore. Gonna move on to watch other stuff or be done for the day
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Decided to buy June $1 calls for this. Might see it trend up over a few days.
SPY may be turning back up here. A double bottom possibly on the 1 min.
I bought some shares, not much apparently you have to call in to take the offer and 30-50 fee by broker
Sold my tqqq around even, missed the morning pop was busy due to work.
Got another vuzi fill, bbai still won’t fill.
Bought oxy calls on the germany ok with russian oil ban news.
Sold for 13% profit. (140). That was from 2 contracts. There was a better opportunity to buy after open, but I bought yesterday.
Sold these just now for 5% gain. These were down 53% this morning, haha.
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Averaged in on my SPY 06/17 410p at 10.00. Possibly in my full swing size for this now.
For spy we saw the correction zone 428-430 act as strong support for intraday lows between 1/25-1/28. It came into play again after the Russian invasion where we saw a low of 410.64 but then close on the day at 428.76 on 2/24. Spy then went on a small run (to 457 twice on 2/2 and 2/9) before resuming its bearish trend and being choppy around correction levels again 3/4-3/16. Afterwards we saw the insane push to 461.55 on 3/29 (fueled by the feds basically lying saying inflation peaked and other news). The reason I think this zone is significant is because it signifies closely the range of -10% off the closing high of 477.55 -10% = 429.79… so using that range of a dollar either side. Regardless the bear trend inevitably resumed given inflation (obviously not peaking) and feds having to increase rate hikes and shrinking balance sheets. The M1 money supply is tapped. Feds can’t print more so they’re stuck between a rock and hard place. If indeed we are heading towards bear market levels (spy 380) -20% from 477.55 = 382.04…. Using 380 for the ease of it. Then we should see correction zone 428-430 turn into resistance for us pretty shortly. We saw it Monday and we might see it again soon. Now that isn’t to say it won’t go above that range… it probably will (we saw 461 for fucks sake). But my bet is that the market will be volatile as it always is and always has been in times of recessions but we should keep the bearish trend we’re in probably for the next year at least…. With the trend I’m seeing on the chart it looks like we should be back down at 410 or below by end of may. Maybe we test the 50 day moving avg again 437.88 or middle of the bollinger range 439.79 as tops for another short term bull reversal …. Which oddly enough close to that range acted as resistance between 2/25-3/3…… anyways that’s my ramblings. someone else who’s doing TA let me know what you think about those levels.
Sparknotes version: I believe we’re headed for bear market territory as I’ve always thought since January. The road to that is obviously volatile and unpredictable, but I think we’ll get there (based on market conditions, fundamentals, and global state of affairs)
Disclaimer: I’m illegally retarded don’t listen to me
- Whiplash out.
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Trying a strangle for run up to Disney ER, filled a 115c/110p at 7.43 Edit- Right, 5/13
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This is really good observation, since we really only have 2 options now–the market enters to full bear market, or trade sideways.
Any of which might be prolonged due to conditions we now know.
How long? That is the real question.
I look back to the windows of 1969-1979 (no sex intended), and 2000-2009, for my models.
We have Puto’s old-men-cold-war, we just got out of a pandemic, we’re testing new financial tools (crypto), and blown-up home prices.
It will take time to adjust, and this is the perfect time to develop skills in trading.
I’d stick with conservative gains and hold Thot’s 2% compounding strat to heart.
Keep playing by the week and let’s not hold on too tightly to bearish or bullish convictions.
I prefer to stay away from penny stocks with little to no sentiment, until the next bull run.
2years should be enough to stabilize most things again.
Conqueror has a thread on remaining covid19 gainers that might yet fall further down.
Check it out here:
*Doc, can you use line breaks next time, please? Maybe wait until your shift is over before you write your thoughts. My old eyes need some line breaks.
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Ahaha will add break lines next time 🫡. Easier to to just put thoughts down when I’m having them then when I’m tired and drained after a shift 
, something to work on
Looking to enter a SPY strangle here for May4 opex.
With AAPL and AMZN ER in a couple of hours, SPY AH and PreM movement will be volatile.
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Definitely should not do it, all seems super bullish, but I took profits on the spy calls I scalped earlier and bought 1 aapl put for tomorrow and one spy put for 5/22 way otm.
My reasoning is I’m paranoid the market is all just traps these days (massive run up right before earnings is a trap or easier spot to get puts)
I still think gdp was bullish since it may keep fed from going too hard and inflation number tomorrow too