Yeah it’s highly unlikely to be 50 bps going forward, but imo the 25 bps hikes are not quite finished and most certainly they aren’t cutting rates in 2023 at the least. Most dovish scenario I see is a 25 bps & pause for rest of 2023.
Nobody is “jumping on the wagon” on the 50 bps.
Scrolling up in this thread, rollover was asked if he thought 50 bps was a possibility and he didn’t say yes.
My own comment here a few minutes ago literally said I think it will be 25 bps.
Wasn’t directed at you or anyone. I was referring to last year when they hiked 50 and 75 it became accustomed to us.
Those were largely unprecedented. Was more stating that I’d be shocked to see continued hikes in to slowing. More the wait and see aspect from the Fed this year.
• He would have preferred raising rates by 50 bps this month and to get to a funds rate of 5¼-5½% as quickly as possible.
“I don’t see much merit in delaying our approach to that level.”
• Bullard isn’t particularly bothered by recent easing in financial conditions, to the extent they reflect less of an inflation premium and more inflation-fighting credibility for the Fed.
“Whether that’s counterproductive or not is something you can argue with.”
for those that played FOMC min again. we are seeing about .85 to 1.06 spread on that pop. Continuing the safest play of setting your sell .10 to .15 higher than the cost right at 1:59. Let me know if you saw different and we will add this to forum post too. Congrats all. This was on the 401 0 DTE About a 15% gain to safe play the pop
Capturing todays play on FOMC. I played the 412’s and maybe should have done the 411’s. I think at most if you entered in a few minutes before you could get them for .28 to .30. The pop only took them to .35 to .37, thus only a .09 gain per contract which isnt the best. Conservatively, you got maybe .05 per contract. When the candle didnt really pop and just froze, that was the trigger to adjust the sell and get out (if you were scalping for a quick pop). Having your order up and already placed makes that easier. If you held through that first red then the contracts stayed at about BE or .31 and pushed back up to .36 about again. When there is less uncertainty the pops are not as aggressive and that might have been concluded with the data CPI today and the Fed comments. Then we saw a selloff down to 408. So even though it still worked, it was about a .05 gain in a safe area. That is 2 times it has done this in the last 2 years of us playing this. So the usual of .10 to .15 sell limits didnt work this time and at best was under .10 per contract. Hope you all did ok and we will try it again next time.
I took 5x $413 1DTEs at .68 each. I was initially going for $412s but they didn’t get to a price I wanted. Set a limit sell for all at 0.80.
Saw them go from .68 to about .75 the first candle, but the “pop” wasn’t really there. I held through the first red candle and adjusted my limit sell down to 0.75. The second run sold them at .75. overall not as profitable as I was expecting but lucky to get out before SPY dumped to 408.
We are seeing less volatility from FOMC minutes because there’s less unknowns than there were a year ago, so they’re having less impact. I don’t have the chart open but I don’t think any of the candles reached a dollar range like we were seeing a year ago.
This is still a profitable play for sure, but might have to be more conservative on the limit sells next time around.
I got 411c 1dte for 150 but went with a conservative 165 sell limit that hit quick. I also had a 410p 1dte for 106 and same conservative sell limit of 122. It did not hit right away so I ended up selling it for 113. Both profitable but not great risk reward. If you. Look at the data at the start of the thread this day looks a lot like the 2018, 2019 data which had very few pops we love so much. I guess algos also knew what jb suggested in tf, there wouldn’t be much new info in mins
For todays release I prob wont be playing. The last few times we did not get the usual pop that makes contracts go .10 to .15 increase instantly and I had to change my sell to only .08 profit per contract. Will just watch and might take put fds if we get a big green candle or two. Otherwise back to other plays on news.
