GGPI and Polestar (EVs and OI)

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Polestar

There are many EV companies out there today and as we all know, these manufacturers are usually highly overvalued (Tesla). Polestar if anything is undervalued and here is why.

Lucid right now has a market cap of 72 billion and delivered its first car last month and has 13,000 orders.

Rivian will IPO tomorrow and will have a market cap of about 65 billion with 42 deliveries and 150,000 orders.

Polestar plans to have a 20 billion market cap and while this might make you skittish comparing it to others you should know they have made and delivered 10,000 cars in 2020 and are on track to deliver 29,000 cars this year. Polestar expects to deliver at least 290,000 cars a year by 2025 and already has started to outsell Tesla with Polestar 2s in Sweden and Norway. Polestar is backed by Geely and Volvo and this means it already has the infrastructure to ramp up production which is exactly what it will do when it starts to produce the Polestar 3 (an SUV) in a South Carolina Volvo factory. Polestar had revenue of over 600 million in 2020 and plans to reach 1.5 billion revenue next year. Polestar is in 14 countries right now and plans to be in 30 by 2023.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-27/volvo-s-polestar-valued-at-20-billion-in-spac-merger-with-gores

Polestar’s lineup consists of the Polestar 1 which is a sports car, the Polestar 2 a sedan, and the Polestar 3 an SUV. The 2 is the cheapest starting at 44,000 and is the one that is starting to surpass Tesla in northern Europe. The 2 is built in a factory in China where it has already made thousands of units.

We all know the stupidity of Nikola rolling semis down a hill, Elon tanking his stock with a tweet, and Lucid having a higher market cap than FedEx. Polestar isn’t like that, it doesn’t have dreams it has foundations. Polestar is putting itself in a position to dominate in Europe and spread into America and has years of making and delivering EVs. It is not the classic hyped EV company it’s real value. Polestar has already had a 600 million investment from Volvo, an investment of unknown size from Leonardo Decaprio (he can be the Elon of Polestar), and 1.05 billion from the merger.

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The Polestar 2

GGPI - The SPAC

I would not be writing all this if we didn’t have a chance of making money off Polestar but thanks to GGPI the odds increase. Polestar on its own website says they plan to merge with GGPI in the first half of 2022 and that does mean this could be a long wait but looking at the setup I think it will be worth it.

Right now GGPI has a free float of 78.92 million and a short interest of only 3% of free float which is a 24 million dollar position that’s currently down 9.41%. What has drawn my attention to GGPI more than anything else is this.

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OI in the third row

GGPI already has over a hundred thousand OI on the January chain and almost half of that is itm already. Nov 19 has about 60,000 OI of which 29,000 is itm, Dec 17th has 40,000 OI of which 16,000 is itm, and April 14th has 16,000 OI of which 7,000 is itm. This merger has no confirmed date other than being in early 2022 so we do not know if there will ever be a chance for this all to be set off but over the last few days the OI has been increasing and is getting to be massive.

If lockups are high and keep the float low and the OI stays this stock could be a gamma squeeze one day, it may not be ready just yet but the fundamental value of polestar and the investments fueling the laid out and realistic plans of growth could make this one of the best EV stocks on the market and interesting deSPAC play.

This could take weeks to months to play out, news about the merger can drop at any time as was seen with AGC today. The timeline is unclear but the reality of Polestar is that it is in my opinion a great investment.

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Polestar actually seems like a decent company too, owned by Volvo. Their cars are actually being delivered around the US in “late november” 2021 as per their website. So they’ll actually have cars out on roads very soon. They also seem pretty cool at first glance, don’t know much about cars though. They’re nice looking.

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That already puts them ahead of 90% of EV stocks

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Gonna be a huge deal when the merger finalizes. Found this in a WSJ article…“The proposed business combination is expected to close in the first half of 2022.”… Do you think it will run this far out from the actual merger? Thank you.

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Pm will be interesting!

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It could but I’m mostly focused on the next day or two but from the few things I’ve seen the company is legit and not some Nikola or new manufacturer like lucid.

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PM is very important if it drops below close then this probably isn’t running tomorrow (Tuesday)

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Added an update to the bottom of the DD

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Thanks I look into it

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Thanks for the heads up, it’s looking pretty good so far?

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Definitely a legit company and will be a huge play. They apparently already have 20 manufacturing locations.

From Twitter - “Polestar now has 20 locations in the US, open and delivering cars to our customers. By the end of this year, there will be 25 and Boston was the latest to join.”

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This is something that stood out to me

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I live in the UK and can confirm I’ve seen quite a few polestars being driven around.

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GGPI pump price by Seeking Alpha today,
If you fomo now, you will be holding those bags and trapping your capital for at least a few months–if not burning it all away.

They did a similar series of hype analysis on AGC, last March and April.
All of those bagholders have been gifted with appropriate Dunce caps.

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Some more good numbers on GGPI. When compared to the recent Rivian IPO and the LCID price action we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks…gets very juicy looking.

If GGPI goes Lucid → that is a 2,800% return.
If GGPI goes Rivian → that is a 4,200% return.

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Source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/smallstreetbets/comments/qzu58h/ggpi_gone_lucid_the_4200_return_trade/

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Comparing one companies valuation to another is very misleading and never ends well.

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If you’re referring to my post, its a loose comparison of revenue estimates mostly.

You’re saying that literally nothing good has ever come from comparing the valuation of two companies? Why don’t you extrapolate on the misleading things in this particular comparison if you don’t mind?

This is a MASSIVE reddit DD I thought was pretty good too.

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In this market, comparison of any kind of valuation based on fundamentals, in my opinion, is unhelpful.

People have compared Lucid to Tesla in terms of valuation (What they do, sale estimates, what they plan to do, “even if Lucid was half of Tesla’s market cap” etc.). People have also compared Lucid to KIA, Ford, even VW. People have compared AMC to other theatres; Sofi to Square; Pfizer to Moderna. These fundamental, or even technical, arguments are, at their core, nonsensical.

No fundamentals can explain Lucid’s current market cap (at this moment, at 50 USD a share) when they have no cars on the road. No fundamentals can explain Tesla’s current market cap (the valuation of the next 10 auto companies combined). One can see that to draw any kind of analogy between one company to the other is to be completely misleading. A company’s valuation, especially in a bull market, as I understand, is a complex multifactorial sum of fundamentals, hype, speculation, sector environment and stockholder psychology. These factors for each company is wildly different to the next; to compare them then, by their total sum is not an impossible analysis, but a very very difficult and unconvincing one.

Admittedly, I haven’t done much research on Polestar. But to compare it with Lucid feels to me just as futile as comparing Lucid to Tesla.

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Thanks for that explanation. I can definitely see how just those comparisons alone would be basically useless in a logical market and context. I think you are missing the point. This isn’t a deep, value based analysis.

Rivian has no cars on the road, right? No fundamentals can explain Lucid’s market cap when they have no cars on the road, as you menioned. Difference is that Polestar does. That’s what the point of that post is. With the EV hype and unexplainable fundamentals for other car companies, how can having cars on the road hurt?

TLDR: Rivian and Lucid both over-valued with no cars on the road. Polestar does and has much hype. Can be very profitable play and potentially a plain old value play as well.

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The fundamentals for Tesla and Lucid cannot explain their share price, but other factors can. Lucid has a good reputation on management and design, and was one of the first that drove the entire SPAC craze. Tesla’s stock can be seen as a (albeit mostly psychological) combination of Starlink, SpaceX, AI, Auto-drive, and Elon Musk’s fame. I can probably write an entire novel on why Tesla’s SP is as high as it is. Does Polestar have these kind of factors going for it? That’s for its investor to decide.

I’m not doubting the play. You’re right, those points certainly won’t hurt. But my point is that comparing valuations aren’t very helpful. To do that is to open a can of worms that are…let’s say…messy.

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