Berkshire also wholly owns BNSF Railroads, so watching BRK/B possibly.
Northfolk Southern: NSC
Other trucking would be ODFL & SAIA
I believe they said like 8 out of the 12 unions have reached deals, but those that haven’t are the largest so it’s still a serious problem.
Here’s more information on a possible railroad strike
Railroads, Unions Work to Avoid Strike and Supply Woes
I have a good friend highly placed in a large railcar repair company that just told me UP has already parked their engine on site and this repair company is prepping for a lengthy strike.
Do we expect that a rail strike announcement would be a catalyst as it’s announced or a longer term play? Would love to get ahead of a catalyst on this, willing to discuss.
Edit contract expires at 12:01 AM Friday. So Friday could be in action as noted though could be resolved by Monday so wouldn’t advise being long on the puts
If there is any kind of bump in the price tomorrow would be worth grabbing a few Friday expiry puts in the event we wake up to a strike.
This just got posted on Bloomberg…
Senate Republicans failed in a bid to force labor unions and railroads to resolve a fight over contract negotiations, ahead of a strike that threatens to paralyze much of the US rail system.
Republican Richard Burr sought unanimous consent for a resolution that would force the two sides to accept the recommendations of a presidential emergency board established by President Joe Biden. That would require agreement from all senators, and Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, objected, arguing freight rail workers need better sick leave.
Archived Copy (No Paywall): https://archive.ph/momIp
Bloomberg (Paywall): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/sanders-to-block-republican-bid-to-avert-rail-strike-in-senate
They are allowed to strike starting at 12:01am Friday morning. So if it happens, it’s going to make Friday trading that much more exciting.
Just my knee-jerk reaction but if a strike is announced after close on Friday I think it would be a dampening effect on the markets.
Besides the boon it may be to trucking, isn’t a rail strike the equivalent of a supply chain issue? And then wouldn’t it contribute to inflation? This isn’t a nuanced post but more a general viewpoint that I think many traders would have.
could a U.S. rail strike be bullish for Canadian rail companies like CNI and CP?
I don’t know if they could safely operate on US railways if there was nobody in the offices to manage the schedules and traffic. Also there would be no ground crews to perform the required maintenance on tracks. Finally, there would be no people to break apart the trains and offload the cargo.
Absolutely would be devastating to supply chain and inflation. Not sure if we’d get knee jerk reaction in the market quite as early as Monday due to the fact that these strikes generally resolve themselves very quickly if they happen. But a prolonged strike could be very well catastrophic to the supply chain.
All I know is UNP puts paid well today. Going to look for re-entry tomorrow as I’ve seen a lot more news being posted this evening as the date creeps closer.
This is a good point beak. Typically unions won’t cross union picket lines as well. So if it’s a union trucking company they aren’t going to cross rail unions picket line to pick up the cargo. Along with loaders etc.
Is it fri morning or evening? I feel like iv seen both
Looks like it’s Friday at 12:01 AM I was inaccurate on above post as I thought it was midnight.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/09/14/first-railroad-union-authorize-strike-00056629
So imo wich means shit…if the strike happens rail would drop and trucking would go up. My company both but would have to pick up on trucking runs with what they could if the rail wasnt flowing to continue with revinue
It depends as I mentioned if you have union drivers etc. most likely they won’t cross the picket line. Teamsters won’t cross rail longshoreman etc. so it’s likely that any non union freight haulers would get the brunt of the loads.
Coming in real quick - for the sake of conversation and accuracy, please try to cite articles or other sources for information. Opinions and anecdotes should be stated as such.
There’s about 1.5 Million Ton-Miles of Freight moved annually via rail. You can’t just fill that gap (especially overnight) by other means. Likewise the dollar cost to move freight via rail is much lower than trucking so we would see prices go up considerably for those critical goods.
The cost to combine rail and truck using a bulk transfer terminal is approximately $95.54 per net ton. By comparison, rail direct is $70.27 per net ton, and over-the-road truck is $214.96 per net ton. Using multi-modal rail and truck transit compared to truck alone, you can cut transportation costs by more than half.
Doordash to the rescue? 
Source: https://www.bts.gov/content/us-ton-miles-freight
Source: Comparing the Costs of Rail Shipping vs Truck - RSI Logistics
Could you clarify this a little more for me? Unfamiliar with teamsters/longshoremen stuff. The dont cross the picket line stuff seems like a metaphor. I dont see how ups as a company would ever go “nah were not shipping that cause union brothers etc”. Sorry if im misunderstanding.
Edit: just talking about different unions within the rr? Even then how can they just say no
