I did a bit of DD on EBS a while back: Monkeypox, The Pandemic 2 : Electric Boogaloo - #2 by Kevin
I’m actually surprised EBS hasn’t been keeping up at all with SIGA’s gains. It’s either truly a laggard or just somehow not the right pick.
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I’ve been scalping SIGA options and it’s gone well.
I think one reason EBS may lag is lack of understanding. EBS bought TEMBEXA- smallpox antiviral from CMRX. I think a lot of people maybe don’t know this, and only think of EBS in re: ACAM2000 vaccine for smallpox. And if they realize, they also know ACAM2000 vaccine and Tembexa treatment have concerning side effects
BVNKF I have been nervous with because of low volume, no options. If you are doing small scalps know your fees because the Bavarian is OTC and look at volume. Their vaccine seems best by far. They may partner with US company to increase production- too many candidates to list but a spin around Google will show you.
Lots of little companies like GOVX run as well.
SIGA responds to news but not always in timeframe I expect, so I watch it. Tonight it ran immediately AH on news of the emergency declaration in the City. The company has no debt and pay dividend. Both Siga and the Bavarians seem best prepared to ramp up.
California has interesting prioritization for who gets limited vaccine, I think it’s more transmissible than they want people to focus on. It is not usually fatal but terribly painful and ugly (those sores can be in your throat and other interior places). Will have people down 2-4 weeks. If spread grows I think SIGA may have a lot of room to go up.
That said lot of other companies you can play with POX.
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Both San Francisco & New York have declared state of emergency over monkeypox. I saw the San Fran news but missed the New York yesterday.
I think that dump on Friday had to be algo triggered. I wish I pulled the trigger as it was coming back up, it only continued to rise in after hours…
SIGA also has earnings on August 4th after hours… Might be worth taking a little gamble position?
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SIGA plunged AH Friday after FDA snipped about not being fully approved for Monkeypox, lack of human trials etc. It bounced up rapidly, possibly on news of deaths in Brazil and Spain, and increasing pediatric cases. TPOXX does have a streamlined emergency use authorization in the US so 
. Other factors could be at play in AH but that is how timing looked.
TPOXX has approval from EMA (Europe) and it states it is “for the treatment of smallpox, monkeypox, cowpox, and vaccinia complications following vaccination against smallpox.” (emphasis mine). So when people get sick from ACAM2000, TPOXX is the treatment. Also has UK approval. Neither has stockpiled hence large orders.
SIGA has been donating TPOXX for monkeypox in Africa for some time with good result. They are partnered with NIH, Oxford, and others for further study but world consensus outside FDA pro TPOXX. FDA could come out on Wednesday and say TPOXX is great treatment we love it.
ACAM2000 is a problematic vaccine. Not ok for pg, immune compromised, infants. And is not a normal jab- not only unpleasant multiprong experience, but not enough people trained how to administer it. For the vaccine weary/wary/hesitant they going to love waiting a week for a pus filled blister to see if it works. And 1/175 get more serious side effects including (duh-duh-duh) Myocarditis. So unless we have smallpox bio attack it is hard to imagine easy, widespread acceptance.
BVNRY/BVNKF/BAVA (the Bavarian Nordic tickers) vaccine is more effective for monkeypox and much less problematic. Also I’m going to start calling it by name of vaccine MVA as I am tired of the multiple tickers etc. They are ramping up as much as possible but even so there just will not be enough to go around. UK has decided a single shot ok to stretch supply. US so far insists that 2 shots necessary.
So right now is Wild West with monkeypox in the US, states declaring emergencies, CDC and FDA have conflicting info, but other western countries seem to have consensus. Possible for SIGA to take off even if US drags feet.
I don’t know what will be the spread. US acts like this is mostly MSM problem, Europe and UK not so much. If spread is rapid given shortage of MVA, TPOXX hence SIGA looks really good.
Some other pros for SIGA. TPOXX is just a pill. No manufacturing, storage, transport issues as with COVID vaccine. SIGA has focus on health security- preparedness/response for biological, chemical, nuclear etc attacks and emergent infectious disease. Unfortunately that may be increasingly important sector.
Here is link to interview with CEO worth watching
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More monkeypox news this morning: Biden announces White House monkeypox response team with 3 states declaring emergencies
So I just checked the charts and apparently this tweet is what triggered the monkeypox tickers:
Also an article talking more about it:
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The Siga earnings call was encouraging for the company and discouraging for humans. Monkeypox is likely to be with us for a long time. TPOXX will be needed not only for the pox itself but for treatment of reaction to ACAM because there isn’t enough MVA to go around. Countries that don’t have strategic stockpile are realizing need not only for treating monkeypox, but need to prepare for the other poxes.
I sold most of my calls off throughout the day for 15%-65% I think Siga will be a moneymaker but who knows with the timing. I will keep watching it and may buy longer dated calls.
A takeaway for me is how divorced from reality the market is (not news but hitting home more). I made money here but I spend way too much time on it. I would have been better off scalping SPY, TSLA, etc. I’m thankful for what I made but will use my time differently going forward.
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Siga ran almost 20% today. I sold my remaining calls for ~70% gain. They went higher but I am pleased.
If the market acts rationally, Siga should continue to rise. That is a big if. I think eventually it will see a major increase. It’s so much more than a monkeypox stock, but monkeypox news is driving it now. Long dated calls and even shares if you can stand holding have potential. Pandemic and bio terror response is a sweet spot. Also buy bleach.
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Another news article…
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Hi just plugging this here on TESTING.
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This is a chart of daily cases (7 day average), looks like it might be slowing down.
Momstock pointed out APDN as a testing play.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b7e2ceb3-a513-3531-acd1-b17e4fe952df/applied-dna-sciences-blasts.html
Think we missed this one really but the interesting thing it has an 8m float and a ton of OI.
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I jumped off this train. The US govt has over a million doses in the stockpile so unless shit really hits the roof I don’t see any big orders coming there way.
Plus the govts are trying to focus more on vaccines
I was in and out of SIGA puts today for a good profit, looks like the rate of cases could be slowing significantly. I’ll be picking up puts if it looks weak intraday or we get any decent pops.
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White house is asking for $47.1b for Ukraine, Covid & Monkeypox. Although with the way APDN and SIGA are performing currently I wouldn’t take a positon. The rate of cases is still decreasing.
For monkeypox , the White House is asking for $4.5 billion, the majority of which would go to vaccinations, testing and treatment for Americans. Officials said the government is still working to end the current outbreak, and has depleted its reserves of vaccines, which means it also needs to rebuild the stockpile to prepare for future outbreaks.
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