I’m still in 
I’ll give it til Monday probably
Averaged down at 0.35, holding 2 19c 10/28 with a cost basis 0.62.
I averaged down at 0.39, new avg cost 0.74.
May the odds be ever in our favour
1 Like
Closed my Jan $25 calls for a 6% gain right before close yesterday after listening to JB’s talk (rant?) in VC about UNG.
Looking at other natural gas plays for Jan over the weekend.
1 Like
I didn’t catch that talk from JB, what was the TLDR?
I still have my 2 19c for next week lol will cut Monday most likely
1 Like
He was saying that UNG is one of the worst performing ETFs and that even when the price on the commons move the prices on the options barely move. I think he and some others are/were holding some Oct. calls so he was mainly talking about those contracts, the Jan calls I had moved up .11 from the time I bought them around 17.50 to the time I sold around 17.80 end of day
3 Likes
Yeah, that talk on UNG was really good stuff, I’m looking closer at OXY, USO, and maybe CTRA now (CTRA is just on my watchlist from a different post, gotta dig into them a bit more).
In any case I am still very interested in building out a natgas/heating oil play for winter, but no real ideas yet aside from scaling into bull positions for some of the above tickers…if anyone has any ideas or warnings about going bullish for winter, I’d love to hear them!
Thinking particularly Europe-related gas/oil tickers if possible, as it seems Germany/the EU will be hit pretty hard compared to others (for all our EU members, stay safe this winter, our thoughts are on you 
)
Sitting almost at breakeven now after missing the pump earlier, likely to cut soon as I feel quite lucky that we’ve had this gap up
1 Like
So after buying my initial contract at 0.90 I bought another to average down to 0.62 cost basis
Sold one call earlier at 0.63 and my final one at 0.68.
Overall a roughly 5% gain which I’m really happy about given where my initial cost basis was.
1 Like
Still in the UNG 19c
Looks like the July “bottom” that I was going for is holding out as support today … although it frighteningly broke on Friday.
FWIW the options flows today are bullish. Dominantly calls, and anything over 25K so far has been OTM calls.
I think I sold my UNG near the bottom Friday… cries
Going to watch for now. We’ll see if the trend continues.
Limit sell for the 19c FDs hit at 1.00, up from 0.74 cost basis call outs
I am still in the Jan 2023 25c calls
UNG Jan 2023 25c now at 2.50 from 2.00. Can take profit for 25%.
Watching this ~18.50 area on UNG to see if support is found. I’ve added the November 11 19c to my watchlist.
Trying 1.15 limit buys on UNG 11/04 19c
It’s bouncing and leaving me without my fill 
“no position” for me again
No updates yet on the Freeport LNG terminal opening, which should be sometime in Nov. Since everyone knows about it, it’s probably priced in, but at the same time, it will start taking up some of the national natgas supply, so there could be a bump.
These are three LNG carriers that are waiting to moor at Freeport - one is at Gola, and the other two are slated to arrive in the next few days.
(Source)
If we start seeing them move into Freeport, it could signal an opening of the taps. Of course, all the professional traders will know this before us, but we could perhaps still catch most of the move before the broader market reacts to headlines. Assuming the ships move in before the announcement…
3 Likes
Been playing UNG these last two weeks. Levels I’ve been entering have been at $17-18.50 and swinging Monthly ITM calls. So far paid out twice. These drops I’ve seen so far seem to be due to the mild climate on the East Coast heading into Winter; at least from how I’ve been playing.
That idea in mind, that’d likely mean that UNG may see another drop tomorrow alongside Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday however will end up being 20 degrees cooler in New England which would predict a reversal back to $20.
If my little theory is right, we should see a jump during pre-market, possibly 19.50 near open. After open, likely to trend further down as the temperature rises throughout the day.
2 Likes
This didn’t play out as I hoped, but it helped me learn some things. One being that currently hardest support for UNG is at 18-19. Resistance now being around 22-23,
My concerns so far is the current supply for Winter. As we’ve seen earlier in the year, both oil and natural gas continued to rise with tensions in Ukraine. Now that we’re headed for Winter, I think most of Valhalla might miss out on entering more specifically Natural Gas as that appears to have more room to climb than oil.
LNG - What Goes Up, Must Come Down… Right?
Something I noticed last week along with @PaperhandsJB is that $LNG is at the highest it’s ever been and missed their earnings. As for their current plants, only 1/2 of their plant is functional due to them exceeding the amount of emissions they’re able to produce. This along with the fact they’re spending a majority of their funds to maintain their machinery SHOULD be bearish.
Contrary to that, my belief is that LNG very well may continuing to reach higher highs as Naturgal Gas producers will begin to struggle with the amount of supply they can produce for this Winter, especially in areas more desperately in need for example: in an area of conflict like Ukraine. Distribution of LNG is even being witheld from Europe currently with the expectation that prices for gas will continue to rise. With a lack of support from Russia, eventually demand will overtake the amount of supply.
Just going to @Conqueror , @The_Ni @Kevin since I feel like this is something actually worth investigating more into before a move happens and figuring out if there is a better-perfoming ticker for Natural Gas overall.
So far these are three canidates outside of UNG and LNG.
CTRA - Supposedly paying out a $0.15 per share before Tuesday in a $0.15 ex-Dividened
AR - Best performing one I’ve seen. Continuous uptrend on the daily with decent spreads and OI for December.
SWN - Basically a penny stock w/ cheap options. Heavy consolidation on the daily. If gas moves as I’m expecting it to, possible for this to reach its previous high.
3 Likes