Fair points, @Tiddly ! I’ve tended to stay away from specific natgas companies as they don’t respond as quickly to price fluctuations of the commodity itself (which makes sense), and respond somewhat differently. Hence have FCG as the ETF, in addition to UNG itself.
Fwiw natgas does seem to be in some kind of bottom, and there are the Freeport and winter catalysts coming up, so still bullish. We might have to wait till Dec or Jan for something to happen though.
Some bad news short-term for Natural Gas just dropped. Thx @Josh for posting.
Depending on if UNG 18 holds, might be a good position for longer-dated calls. Really bad news for LNG however as they were already suffering due to their plant being only able to run at half-capacity.
Freeport LNG export schedule has been pushed back to Mar 2023. Some production should start by Dec 2023, and 2 BCF by Jan 2023. This is a few months later than the initial expectation of Nov 2022.
Interestingly, UNG seems to have taken it in stride. 1-day and 1-year below. Still holding UNG and FCG, no options yet.
This topic was automatically closed 14 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.
Natgas continues to die a quiet death as Europe enjoys a warm winter, and there is word of even further delays in Freeport opening:
My UNG position is deep underwater (-45%) and FCG is down 5%.
Have UNG buy orders in place for $10, and again for $8. I normally wouldn’t buy on the downward trajectory but natgas moves very fast, and I’ll often forget about this position for days… Since there is no decay* in this ETF like the leveraged ones, happy to hold for months on end for it to come back. We are at 1Y lows already, and just $3 away from 5Y lows. (Below)
Seems like a no-brainer mean reversion trade to me, but I’m probably missing something big. Any input would be appreciated.
* Expense ratio is 1.11%
I find the idiosyncrasies of individual companies confusing, so went with the FCG ETF 
FWIW, winter is definitely not over yet and we may see more volatile weather conditions.
I tend to take a glance at https://natgasweather.com/ when I’m looking to play UNG. Seems like it’s going to keep going down based a few things:
I think if I was going to play this I’d look at the 07/21/23 contracts for calls. Either $15 - $20 since those are the only ones with over 1k open interest. I think the $16 are the best since they have 5k open interest. I’d also probably play the short term to the downside. Probably buy a month out and keep the strike price as close to the current price as possible. I’d probably keep it a 2 to 1 ratio of puts to calls and only use profit to buy more calls. It still seems like it’s head to the downside. Just my 2 cents.
Chatter of colder weather coming in in about 2 weeks, with UNG responding positively.
Picked up some at $13 in case we are near the bottom, with $10 and $8 buy orders still in place.
Continuing to make an exception for UNG re: catching falling knife. Topped up some more at 10.25, bringing cost basis down to 14-handle. ~$8 buy limit still there, in case it goes lower.
No actual news - just based on historical price ranges.
MACD about to cross over on the daily so we should receive a technical bounce shortly, NG already gapped up a little as of this post. I’m currently holding a short position in KOLD, quite confident on this position as long as borrow fees don’t keep going up. NG only needs a 25% increase to cut KOLD in half so theoretically any short position in it will pay out over time barring recall and borrow fees.
Interesting! Why a short position in KOLD vs not a long position in BOIL? Presumably they do the same thing, minus the borrow fee?
The Maverick of Wall Street had a minute or so in a video last week talking about this STEO data from the EIA.
" We forecast the Henry Hub price will average close to $5.00/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2023; both winter weather and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at near-capacity volumes will lead to greater natural gas demand, which will result in higher prices in the United States. After a warm start to January, we expect colder winter weather to return, prompting higher natural gas consumption for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors, which causes prices to rise. We also expect the Freeport LNG export facility in South Texas, which shut down in June due to a fire, to resume operations in the first quarter of the year. "
I started a share position in BOIL (<$10.0) on Thursday, didn’t average down on Friday.
edit: I got stopped out for a slight profit on my BOIL shares this morning 1/23/23.
And , in a mere 12 days … it did go lower. $8 buy fills filled. Setting new ones for $6.
An important point to be made here, about catching falling knives - with much of winter over already, prices could remain depressed for a while. At this point, I’m fine holding into next winter.
Good thing I’m still holding my worthless BOIL call. March going to be cold. Groundhog said so. May actually go shares for shitz n giggles. I do this with soxl too
So with Freeport starting back up (fingers crossed), some winter weather in LA and $CHK halting drilling I think if we are lucky that yesterday was bottom like @Bear_Chyllz said. We might also see more natural gas suppliers start halting production but time will tell there.
“if we are lucky”
Indeed. In trading floor today I posted this chart that Snood is referring to. When I started looking at UNG I thought the “bottom” would be around $1.969 if we got there. Well, overnight we got there and bounced off it twice. Not to say we can’t or won’t go lower because we absolutely could. That is why I am keeping my call option position small and slowly adding to my shares position. I am approaching this trade as The Ni has said, prepared to hold the shares to next winter.
I haven’t watched yet but the Maverick put out a video all on natural gas today.
