OPFI - Shares Buyback

@magician’s DD is linked below here:


What this is: Short DD on OppFi
Play: Swing trade, based on news.

TLDR:
Free Float - 12.467m (Trading View / 13.46m (WeBull)
Current Price - 5.10


Home Page: https://www.oppfi.com/
Investors site: OppFi - Investor Relations


This play is based on news of Shares Buyback announcement:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oppfi-announces-share-repurchase-program-115000662.html

News of the buyback brought in new bullish sentiment yesterday.
Since the price is currently near its ATL, it’s not unreasonable to expect this buyback sooner than later.

@magician brought this to our attention. I’m also tagging @DannyScot so he can monitor this thread to the T.
Danny loves to monitor. The ticker was also discussed here in the forums last month.
Thank you, @Kevin for the link. Kevin is one of our PFE Island boys.


Options chain via Barchart…

Options chain via ChartExchange…

MarketBeat data…

Barchart Opinion (Ai)…


Daily chart…


I think this can dip a bit lower than 4.11, before trying for that previous support line of 6.14.

  • Resistances are marked in pink.
  • I included 3 ideas for price movement, though this is still too early.
  • For the long term, what I prefer to see is a clearer trade range–I have to see it get rejected again anywhere between 6-8.
  • There is clearly room to gap up in the next few months–how quick/slow is the question.
  • MACD is recovering real well to the bullish side since December 6.
  • Both RSI and BB%b showed divergence against the price and is now possibly confirming a bullish reversal.
9 Likes

Should be noted that the share buyback is $20M.

The float is ~13M shares, taking a middle estimate.

The stock has been beaten down all year and is trading at ~$5 per share. $20M/$5 = 4M shares.
4M shares = 31% of the float

Seems most logical for the buyback to occur sooner rather than later to take advantage of the low price. Recently the daily volume has been well under 500,000. A buyback of the float on the open market should creep the stock price steadily.

The OI on the Jan calls is not amazing, approx 3000 OI per strike, which is 300,000 shares at delta = 1.0. Could be worth watching though.

Volume on the 5c and 7.5c exceeds 1k each, and the flows on UW are 75% tagged bullish. I think the OI will be decently higher on Monday. Final flows with $1K premium below:

6 Likes

Fundamentals of OPFI also seem great, compared to its peer UPST. OPFI is a mini-UPST, at 1/20 the valuation. (KPLT is a distant peer, as it targets less creditworthy customers.)

Details can be found on SA; here are some highlights for UPST vs OPFI:

  • Valuation: 10B vs 475M
  • Revenue: 634M vs 247M
  • Net Income: 77M vs 30M
  • Net operating cash flow: 248M vs 168M
  • EPS Diluted 0.99 vs 2.25
  • Gross profit margin: 100% (?) vs 86%
  • Net income margin: 12% vs 12%
  • YoY revenue growth: 75% vs 187%
  • P/E Non-GAAP (FY1): 59.91 vs 6.66
  • P/E GAAP (FWD): 115 vs 4.5
  • Price/Sales (TTM): 12 vs 0.26
  • Price/Cash Flow (TTM) : 39 vs 0.37
  • Short Interest: 8% vs 21%

It would be reasonable to expect OPFI to appreciate in value given its single digit PE ratios, and healthy margins and projected growth rates.

Moreover, it would be reasonable to expect a closing of the valuation gap between UPST and UPFI, which is at 20x at the moment.

UPST shows explosive growth in 2021…
image

… but approaches same levels of growth as OPFI by 2023 …
image

… while PE levels then remain super high in comparison.

OPFI therefore looks relatively undervalued.

Caveat: It is possible that UPST bears the brunt of the correction should a convergence in valuation be justified. It has fallen 75% this year already.

Overall, feeling bullish on OPFI.

10 Likes

I think this is a better set of ideas, based on the current Jan OpEx…


OpEx marked with green vertical lines.
I’d say these are conservative ideas.

9 Likes

Good to see this on the discord. Ive been trading this one for the past few months. Very low volume most days and easily driven down / shorted. Hope it picks up with the attention its getting. Love the value here.

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These charts and your DD have been an excellent resource for me. I’m in with some shares and will be looking for a decent entry on some calls next week. Much appreciated!

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Looks like there’s some SI on this one as well, dollars are minimal but wondering if this could put some added pressure on pushing this up a bit with the buy back announcement. I’m wondering how low the rest of the shares are locked up?

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Hi, Can I ask what indicator you’re using to make those projections? Is it available on TradingView?

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Projections? You mean the waves?
I drew those myself–just opinions based on what I’m seeing.

Yes you can draw your own using Trading View’s brush tools.

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Thanks!

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The options chain starting to fill out nicely here. Green ticker on an overall red day. Bought more shares on the brief dip under $5 this morning.

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DD from our friend Magician -

Ticker: $OPFI

Exchange: NYSE

Share price: $5.16

Market Cap: 567.4M

Shares Outstanding: 110M

Public Float: 12.47M-13.57M

Institutional Ownership: 6,074,084

OppFi is a fintech player using technology to provide subprime borrowers access to credit and loans. Their mission statement reads “We empower everyday consumers to rebuild financial health through facilitating credit access, enabling savings, and building wealth.”

Disclosure:
OWNERSHIP: The author owns $OPFI shares, warrants, and options.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: This document is provided for informational purposes only, you should not construe any information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by the author or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this document constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information displayed constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. The author is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to this document. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information before making any decisions based on such information. You agree not to hold the author, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information this document.

The view from 30,000 Feet:

OppFi went public in July 2021 via SPAC at a time when people were running from SPACs. The capital structure with heavy private ownership of Class V private shares distorts the market cap calculation. (Many sites report market cap near 60-70M using only class A common shares). And most importantly the nature of their business targeting subprime consumers immediately turns-off many Wall Street and even fiscally responsible individuals who mistake high APRs as predatory, rather than the cheapest option available from a responsible team and partner working with its clients, and that is loved by the borrowers. Profitable and successful before entrance into the public markets, $OPFI has since been aggressively shorted and beaten down to absurd valuations given their revenue and growth numbers.

Why you should listen to me

You shouldn’t. Realistically, I’m not doing much special here. I’m pulling public information, gathered from earnings reports, presentations, SEC filings, etc. You should never make a financial decision based on what anyone on the internet says or writes. Talk to a professional registered financial adviser.

My background

I’m a retail investor with a strong interest in undervalued companies, who spends all his time reading and researching ideas. In July of 2020 I was pitching a stock. I noted it was a misunderstood company and investment, and that the prevailing public, retail, and street sentiment wasn’t based on the fundamentals or the balance sheet. I saw a deep value play where heavy short interest had pushed a company’s share price out of alignment with the reality of their financials. I saw the company as being well positioned with upcoming catalysts, excessively shorted, undervalued, misunderstood, and I believed there was opportunity.

This company was $GME. And my entry was roughly $4 a share.

Notably, $OPFI has some of the same characteristics.

Highlights:

Value:

  • Profitable since 2015, a rare feat in fintech
  • Trading at a fraction of competitors’ multiples
  • Delivered 40% of UPST Q3 Total Revenue, trading at 6% of UPST market cap. (567.4M vs 9.48B)
  • Delivered 33% of SOFI Q3 Total Revenue, trading at 5% of SOFI market cap. (567.4M vs 11.09B)

Growth:

  • 50% CAGR 5 years preceding public listing
  • Q3 had adjusted 17% sequential and 25% YoY revenue growth
  • Recently Launched SalaryTap product offering sub 36% APRs
  • OppFi card being tested for introduction as a graduation product
  • Large TAM, with roughly half of Americans reporting $1000 or less in savings

Timing:

  • Shares down 50% from successful SPAC combination
  • Stock is trading near 52wk lows, despite recent bump
  • New CEO effective Jan 1, 2022 (Neville Crawley)
  • $20M share repurchase program announced Jan 6 '22
  • Aggressively sold and shorted post Q3 ER
  • Ortex estimated SI% of Float @ 26%
  • Latest Exchange Reported Short Interest (settlement Dec. 15): 1,278,628 shares
  • Exchange Reported SI% of Float: 21.62%
  • Next release of Exchange Reported Short Interest: Jan 11th(settlement Dec. 31)

Full 2021 Guidance per Q3:

  • Revenue: 350-360M
  • Adj. EBITDA: 120-125M
  • Adj. Income: 122-126M

Industry & Competition:

What does OPFI’s industry look like? Who are they competing with? And who are they competing for?

$OPFI is in a unique spot here. They are similar to $SOFI in ways, but targeting the subprime market entails more risk.

$OPFI is among a new breed of digital lenders. While most of $OPFI’s mainstream competitors target the prime market, $OPFI has positioned to help subprime borrowers get access to credit and loans, while simultaneously offering them resources to grow their financial health and further engage with the company’s products and services.

Given $OPFI’s revenue and growth, I am comparing them to two well known and prominent names in the sector, SOFI, and Upstart. While these company’s have more public mindshare, $OPFI’s numbers should put them in the conversation given similarities in business approach and sector.

Competitor Fundamentals

OPFI

  • Market cap: 567.4M
  • Q3 2021 Revenue: $72.89 million - up 62.42% YoY
  • Q3 Adjusted EBITDA: $31,779M
  • Net Operating Cash Flow: 168.78M

UPST

  • Market cap: 9.6B
  • Q3 2021 Revenue: $228 million - up 50% YoY
  • Q3 Adjusted EBITDA: $59,139M
  • Net Operating Cash Flow: 248.01M

SOFI

  • Market cap: 11.09B
  • Q3 2021 Revenue: $277 million - up 28% YoY
  • Q3 Adjusted EBITDA: $10,256M
  • Net Operating Cash Flow: -108.75M

Valuation with Peer Multiples:

As seen in peer comparisons, $OPFI did between 33% and 40% of the total revenue of $UPST and $SOFI respectively in Q3. Normally I would pull far more ratios for comparison, including PE, PEG, price to sales, etc. However given OPFI is less than a year on the public markets, and accounting for gaap / non-gaap on several of these companies becomes challenging, I find it easiest for a broad picture view to simply compare market cap, revenue, and EBITDA.There are others I’m sure who can investigate more fully and find all the metrics for a more detailed breakdown.

The ballpark estimate gives a general idea of where OPFI is performing in comparison to UPST and SOFI.

If OPFI were valued at a very conservative 20% of the average market cap between the two ($10.345B), $OPFI’s market cap would be $2.069B.

At that valuation, shares would trade at $18.80

While this is just a simple comparative valuation using few metrics, it exposes that presently, $OPFI trades at a significant discount to other players in the space given the revenue and growth they have delivered. Some of this may be attributed to their increased risk profile in dealing with subprime borrowers, and their short history as a public company.

Management and Ownership:

The share structure of this company is another factor that may make Wall Street investors and funds turn away. The total shares outstanding is 110M; however, 96.5M of these shares are Class V voting shares are held by Executive and Chairman Todd G Schwartz.

Share Breakdown:

Class A Common Shares: 13,464,542

Class V Voting Shares: 96,500,241

Institutional Ownership: Per Nasdaq.com, there are presently 80 institutional holders with a combined share ownership of 6,074,084. Fintel alternatively shows 60 institutional holders and total ownership of 8,561,054 shares.

Given the difficulty in assessing this number accurately due to trades made between reporting periods, I am assuming the number is at least 6M+ shares held by institutions. This represents 45% of the shares. Thus, the public tradeable float would be reduced to roughly 7,464,542 shares. Other estimates put the free float far lower, at roughly 5.9M shares.

This is an extremely low float stock.

OPFI does have warrants. Presently, they are trading at $0.83. The warrants will expire on July 20 2026. There is a complicated structure from the initial business combination where warrants were issues various as founder warrants, underwriter warrants, private placement warrants, etc. Some of the founder shares warrants were returned before the completion.

Share Price History

When FGNA completed the merger taking OppFi public in July, the stock was trading near the SPAC NAV. Shares were in the $10 range. Following completion, the share price has gone down dramatically. From September to October 2021 share prices declined from $10 to $6. There was a substantial run prior to Q3 earnings. Shares hit $8.4 as the company released Q3 numbers that beat consensus EPS and revenue. Since then, $OPFI has seen a precipitous decline. Post Q3 2021 earnings, a surge in short selling (Ortex estimated SI% of float nearing 40-45%) accelerated a broader fintech selloff. $OPFI shares fell to the $4-$5 range.

Clearly being a shareholder has been difficult. Those who owned at $10 are now down roughly 50-60%. The whiplash from extreme swings and harsh selloffs is difficult to weather.

However it should be noted that the extreme volatility of this stock caused by the incredibly small public float (13.5M shares before accounting for institutional ownership) can work in both directions. Catalysts, positive earnings, upward revisions, and short exits, may move the share price at an accelerated rate as a result.

Short-Squeeze Scenario

OPFI has been heavily shorted, especially as noted following their beat on revenue and EPS at Q3 earnings. While Ortex SI% of float estimates have varied, it has reached as high as the low 40s, and currently sits around 25-26%.

With such a small trade-able number of shares (roughly 13.5M class A common shares), a short squeeze is very much a consideration.

In evaluating such a thing it should be noted that the setup here has many of the factors one looks for.

  • Latest Exchange Reported Short Interest (settlement Dec. 15): 1,278,628 shares
  • Exchange Reported SI% of Float: roughly 21.5% (using a 6M pubilcly available freefloat number)
  • Next release of Exchange Reported Short Interest: Jan 11th(settlement Dec. 31)
  • Ortex estimated SI% of Free-Float: 26%
  • Days to Cover: 5.6
  • Catalyst: $20M in share buybacks.
  • Catalyst: Upcoming earnings

Estimations, Expectations, Projections:

Average Analyst Price Target: $10.5 (Low: 7, High: 14)

This represents analysts’ belief in roughly 100% upside.

$OPFI Full 2021 Guidance per Q3 ER Presentation:

  • Revenue: 350-360M
  • Adj. EBITDA: 120-125M
  • Adj. Income: 122-126M

Risk Factors

Federal Regulation - A 36% Interest Rate Cap

I view this as ‘THE’ primary risk factor for OPFI. This is focused on potential legislation at the federal level to cap interest rates at 36%.

The ‘Veterans and Consumers Fair Credit Act of 2021’ was introduced in Summer 2021, then reintroduced in October. It would install a 36% cap.

The regulatory risk from a bill like this should not be ignored. “Specifically, the bill caps the interest rate on extensions of consumer credit at 36%” - were this to pass, the subprime market would be effectively killed in my estimation. Unless the government took over the task of lending to subprime borrowers, this entire market would be damaged.

I believe politicians see high APRs in the 50-120% range and see malice. But I wonder if they’ve read the data and the details about small dollar loans and lending.

According to a report published by the Federal Reserve on August 12, 2020, break even APRs are quite high for small loan amounts.

According to a research by the US Federal Reserve, a $494.00 loan requires an APR of 103.54% for a lender to break even and a loan amount of $2,530 being necessary for the lender to break even at an APR of 36%.

Meaning essentially, for smaller dollar amount loans, a greater APR is required for lenders to even breakeven. $OPFI has managed to offer sub 36% at times thanks to their savings via automation.

Despite the math here, politics may drive some to push further for this legislation, and in my view it would negatively impact or destroy the entire subprime market, sweeping up $OPFI in the process.

Regulatory Lawsuits

OPFI recently settled a lawsuit in DC. D.C. Attorney General Karl A. Racine’s office sued OppFi rather publicly. $OPFI settled to avoid the expense of protracted litigation, while denying having violated any law or engaging in anything deceptive, and paid 2.2M in refunds / waived interest and a 250K fine to the city.

Economic downturn / rising rate environment

Given the inflation we have seen this is worth considering. In an economic downturn where borrowers have diminished ability to repay their loans, the charge-off rate for $OPFI may increase. Still it’s worth noting that historically, in sudden economic downturns (for example in New Orleans post Katrina), small lenders were hit far less, and their loan repayment didn’t struggle nearly as much as larger lenders. As the company does buyback the loans from their bank lending partners, OPFI would need to carefully manage their balance sheet in such an environment in order to remain profitable.

The Play

Having established $OPFI is fundamentally undervalued, especially using comps to peers in the industry, and is a growth fintech trading like a value stock, I have built a long position. I also want to take advantage of what I perceive to be extraordinary potential for a short squeeze, given the excessively high short interest and the very small public float.

15 Likes

From reading the Q3 results, it looks like approximately $6 million of $OPFI’s $14 million Net Income came from forgiveness of its PPP loan, which is a one-time event that should bring Net Income down in Q4. I will be watching this closely and looking at an entry prior to Q4 earnings release.

5 Likes

Great DD from both sources. Bought a call at the 4.90 dip today for Jan, to capitalize on the bullish sentiment on the share buyback. Could add, after seeing how sentiment tracks. Either way, feeling it will be profitable as this is fairly close to the ATL’s. Picked up shares in my long portfolio at the same price, as it seems this company is undervalued, and could even see some bullish movement with the higher SI and shorts currently being OTM.

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Really enjoyed your DD there Magician. I am considering taking a position in $OPFI, I have a couple questions:

  1. In regards to a potential 36% Interest Rate Cap, are there any particular dates to watch out for? I’m not familiar with the workings of the Congress, is this something that can sort of drop down suddenly and affect stock prices at any date or can it be anticipated somehow?

  2. If one were to purchase calls, what expiry dates would you suggest looking at?

Thanks.

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Glad I followed this thing is mooning. Shorts getting wrecked today.

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Let’s be careful as shorts getting wrecked is often wrong and a pumpy type of way to describe a stock moving up. Here is the latest info on shorts. They are not doing that bad and don’t have to cover here.
image

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I think Conq has said in the past that you might expect shorts to start covering when the current loss is greater than the position value. Not sure how accurate that is, but with a low CtB, they certainly don’t need to cover here.

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Fair enough but a portion are certainly underwater at this point and so I guess its a matter of if they want to wait this out and hope it fades off or start closing tomorrow and take the L. Time will tell. I plan to hold for the next earnings report and see how it shakes out.

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The Vol/OI on the FEB 7.5C seems pretty bullish for earnings but I am no expert on such matters.

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