PROG, possible Gamma Squeeze + Short Squeeze

[rexxxar]

What this is: Update to PROG bullish run after Earnings Report
Read: Swing Trade / Scalp

TLDR:
While the Oct 26 Short Squeeze signal was fulfilled somewhat on Nov 4 and 5, PROG is now back on track to a possible Gamma Squeeze.
It’s imperative that you watch out for any negative publicity to help secure your gains, just in case.
Stop Loss and Stop Loss Limits are great tools, utilize them if available.
If possible, watch the 1 min and 5 min charts.

Compared to the Oct 26 PreM run, PROG is holding up real well this time…

This week’s Options Chain…

Options Chain history, if we get 3 more greens this week, PROG leaps to the moon next week…

Ortex shows that we may still have a good chunk of Shorts to Squeeze as well…

Consider T+2 with Ortex data.

Fintel Insider Trades update…

I will update the thread again on Friday the 19th after market close.

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What this is: Ortex Alpha Signal - Short Squeeze Type 3 (hold for at least a few days)
Read: Swing Trade

TLDR:
This is the 4th Short Squeeze Type 3 signal for PROG this month.
Free Float - 128.71M
Possible profit range - 12-56%, when trading shares.

*** IF you don’t know how to play this, Do Not Fall into the Fear of Missing Out (fomo)!
*** It already hit the High of 6.46 at Pre-Market yesterday - 10-26-2021.
*** PROG has a history of reaching new highs in Pre-Market, consider that.

Tradingview chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PROG/LV1HB0Vk-PROG-confirming-its-trend-of-Bull-Flags-and-Short-Squeezes/

About them:
Sector - Health Care Services
https://www.progenity.com/company/about
“Progenity is an innovative biotech company that was founded in 2010 and went public in 2020.
We aim to improve the diagnosis of disease and improve patient outcomes through localized treatment with targeted therapies.”

Ortex Alpha Signal

As you can see above, PROG has a healthy history of Short Squeezes for this month of October.
It also squeezed in September and June, so weather your Bullish or Bearish, there are plays to be had in this ticker.
*** PROG’s previous 3 Short Squeeze runs this month were always all Types, with Type 3 being the first.

Ortex Short Interest data

• Take note the 0.65 Days to Cover, and compare that with the Estimated SI% of Free Float which is 50.13%.
• This means that Short Shares are becoming more frequently available–liquidity is good (feel free to correct me please).
  Evidence of this can be found on the lessening Failure to Deliver ratio.

Another evidence confirming the liquidity of Short Shares is the ever increasing Daily Volume, overlaid here:

This is a good sign for even more price action in the coming days.
Also note that Utilization is still at 99.89 again. I’ve seen it go down to ~80, when Short Shares get returned/covered.

Fintel data…

OK, so what about Price Entries to get into the trade??

We look to the support and resistances for that.

Here’s Barchart’s data:

You will want to try and enter somewhere in those 4 support price points marked orange.
Of course, if the price somehow retraces/drops lower than that–I’d stop and watch first.
Depending on the entry position, it may be possible to net over 50% in profits with this ticker in one swing trade.
*** There are NO GUARANTEES of profit here, I am only presenting historical data together with the Alpha Signal.

Recent Options History for reference…

IF you’re wondering about the developing Options chain…

Possible Catalysts for Price Movements:
https://investors.progenity.com/news-releases/news-release-details/progenity-participate-crohns-colitis-foundations-fourth-annual
“Progenity’s Vice President of Strategy and Operations, Chris Wahl, MD, MBA, will present as part of a session titled " Novel Drug Delivery Technologies ” on Thursday, November 18, at 2:25 p.m. Eastern. The presentation will be live-streamed and will be available for viewing after the event to registered attendees.
The presentation will focus on Progenity’s novel Drug Delivery System (DDS), currently under development, which is designed to improve patient outcomes in ulcerative colitis by increasing the available dose at the site of disease while reducing systemic toxicity.”

Please feel free to add more relevant News links in the comments. The more eyes and level-headed brains we have on trades, the better.

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Full Disclosure: I have been swing trading this ticker the whole month–every time I get the Short Squeeze Type 3 signal.
I have 4.5Cs and 5.5Cs, that are green with IV.
Yesterday, I got lured in again at the FOMO price of $4.07 with 48 shares. If you’ve read my other posts, you’d know it’s a theme. FML
I plan to exit this as soon as I see profit over the price of 4.5.

• PROG was first alerted by Balu, in this server.
• A follow up DD request was created by brandomango.
• I thought it best to create a new thread since this ticker just keeps getting higher price movements and volume.
• I chanced upon it since the first DD posted in r/SqueezePlays/ by u/caddude42069.

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Here’s the current 1 Hour chart:

Chime in!

[Conqueror]

Prog is currently undergoing what we’ve started calling a shake.

What is happening is that during the failures to meaningfully break the mid $4.00 levels, PROG’s options volume is dumping into OTM strikes:

As you can see above, the majority of today’s volume is being dumped into the 4.5 and higher. This “shakes” the buyers and removes the upward pressure on the stock, sinking them in strikes that are losing value. That’s not to say it can’t continue higher, it’s just to say that this isn’t as good of a setup at the moment as it may appear at face value.

Commenting on the short squeeze portion of this, that wouldn’t come into play until much higher price points and can be excused as a legitimate factor in buying pressure at this specific moment. Most of those shorts are betting against PROG long term and would be unmoved by the current price action. I’m working on a “Short Squeeze Bible” to help the community better understand what we know about them.

My two cents.

[rexxxar]

Thanks, Conq! Glad to have that insight.

[BoyzGottaEat]

Thank you both for the time and effort you have put in. It is much appreciated.

[rexxxar]

My pleasure. I wrote this to help clear the Trading Floor of PROG questions. Besides, it’s been performing real well for an entire month.

Chart history update:
So paying even more attention to the history, and marking the dates where Ortex signaled Short Squeeze possibilities, this is what I see…

• After every ramp up in price, Short Squeeze Type 3 Alpha Signals get triggered the following day. This is also usually the day where the peak hits–except for this latest 4th signal, where it did not go break the previous Pre-Market’s 6.46 high.
• Notice then that you can count 3 downtrend days before the price consolidates again.
• Consolidation either continues a few more days (1 and 2), or price goes on another up trend immediately after a day (3).

Ortex SI update:
Right now, we’re currently sitting at 51.46% SI, which is lower than 7 days ago, but higher than Oct 15.
After a few days, Oct 26 gave us that PreM high of over 6.
Putting that into consideration, I’ll try and observe if the SI estimate will increase even more.

***** All that said, we have to remember that history doesn’t necessarily need to dictate future performance.**
Mitigate risks, mind your position ratio.

My current position:
I can no longer average down on my WeBull account, so it remains at that 4.07 price with 48 shares.
Also still have my Calls, will most likely sell them next peak.
I did however purchased more shares on my RH account–just to test my theories again.

[notalwaysso]

Looking forward to the Bible - thank you!

[yflame]

Reading all of the data and comments is interesting. I am learning alot.

[rexxxar]

Chart update:

It seems Monday may give us the price action we need to break out of this wedge at 3.31.
After that (IF it does break out) I expect it to run up again in PreM, close to market open.
Should that be confirmed, it might either fill that gap to 6.46, or even try for a new peak.

Let’s see how it moves. And again, please remind yourself that this is a Pharma / Health Care Services stock.
Meaning if you see profit, get out!

For those who may read this but are not in the play already, DO NOT FOMO! Can’t stress this enough.
Rather, check out the other DD posts and find another play that may suit you better.

FAQ:
a) What’s the best entry for PROG?

• $1.00

b) Will PROG reach $25, 50, 75?

• GTFO

[Only_Joebee]

I was just reading some stuff about PROG since I had played an earlier squeeze. I don’t know shit but I’ve been paying attention to it. They recently reduced their debt as well

Progenity Reduces Outstanding Debt by $20.175 Million Through a Private...

SAN DIEGO, Oct. 26, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – Progenity, Inc. (“Progenity”) (Nasdaq: PROG), an innovative biotechnology company, today announced that it has ent…

Also Nov 8th from what I’ve found is their earnings date. The catalyst you mentioned is not until Nov 18th and 19th. Which if things are going well and the delivery system is shown to work well then I’m bullish for a jump around that Thurs and Frid. I’m not entirely sure how these things tend to go though.

[Conqueror]

As an update to this, PROG is currently holding it’s price level and consolidating. The OI is no longer being shook and we’re watching some accumulation in the ITM strikes.

I will likely take a starter position on this today.

[Airmech]

What do you see as a good time frame and strike price. Is it still the 4.5 and 5.5’s over the next month that rex was discussing in October?

[Conqueror]

I don’t do options recommendations because that should be up to your individual risk tolerance.

I am however watching for an entry here in this range. It’s attempting to set up a third bounce off this level. Note that this is extremely risky, as we’ve seen with other plays, it can come down through this support and fall off the side of the earth.

[HotPocketChris]

risky play but im in with some fun money. got in at 3.47 with a couple shares and stop loss at 3.29. lets see how this plays out

[OkJeweler8746]

I have been watching this and loe 3.40s looks like a good entry… What are the thoughts on the incredibly low volume? Just low compared to the run-ups?

[rexxxar]

Update on my position:
Closed my calls and averaged down to 3.649, with 168 shares.

15min chart

Daily candles

EW currently shows the Earnings Report date to be next week, Monday, November 8, at 4:00 PM EST

[rexxxar]

News cycle:
This is getting passed around since yesterday…

Progenity, Inc. (PROG) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock...

Chart update:
Pre-Market saw PROG fall out of that strong 3.33, all the way down to 2.85.
It finally retested that as resistance and broke back in by 2:46PM.
We closed at 3.404.

I am of the opinion that PROG will continue this downtrend until Earnings Report next week Monday.

[rexxxar]

Quick Look at Open today with the Regression Channel:

[mobattles]

Nice. So drop below 3.19 could be detrimental?

[rexxxar]

not necessarily, this indicator just give us the average price movements across the range.
this way you can better determine the best entries and exits.
it’s best used for wider/bigger time zones/candles. e.g. Hourlies and Dailies

so in this case, time will show us if 3.19 or lower today would have been the best entry for the anticipated moves for next week.

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Intraday Chart and Position Update:

I forgot that I had this pennant and wedge drafted too…

Today’s run up broke out the wedge and seems to be holding fine, so I caved in and added to my position.
Managed to average down just a tad bit more to 3.552 with 275 shares.

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Earnings Whisper also updated the ER date to Nov 10.

[Conqueror]

Still holding my position on this one. Chain is still jacked and short interest potentially could come into play on this one.