RDW - new space Spac making deals and Amazon rumor

Redwire is a multifaceted space company. It aims to cover different services including orbit servicing, LEO commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft and advanced sensors.

Redwire agreed to go public on 3/24 with SPAC Genesis Park Acquisition. The vote passed on 9/1 and started trading under RDW on 9/3. Redwire received 166 million cash and 100 million in PIPE at $10 per share.

Here is s-1 filling submitted 9/23 Inline XBRL Viewer

I cannot get a good source but read that pipe unlocked on 10/4. This lines up with 10-15 day wait for PIPE to typically unlock after S-1 filling. 5.8 million of 10 million PIPE should be freed up. The remaining 1.3 million being long term investors and 2.9 million boxed holders.

Redwire said it was already profitable, with revenue of $119 million and EBITDA of $13 million in 2020. By 2025, the company expects to grow to $1.4 billion in revenue with an adjusted EBITDA of $250 million.

My original thread creation was based on this YouTube video and time stamp: Made in Space/Redwire Space at UC Berkeley - YouTube

That’s Alicia Carey, Lead Program Manager at Redwire talking at a Berkeley seminar that they had on September 30. This means the announcement would come at the end of October or early November.

For those who got in early, there was different news released by luck on 10/12. It was announced that redwire supplied sensors to NASA’s project Lucy set to launch no earlier than 10/16. The sensors were accepted in July 2020 through Lockheed Martin. The stock price ran up from 9.50 to 12.50 starting 10/12 to 10/14. From 10/14 the price has peaked and slowly declined but had also seen 19 million in volume.

Redwire apparently makes quality space products and can get them sold and used in NASA projects. The Amazon news could be nothing or it may never come. However price movement from the project Lucy involvement is confirmation bias on the price movement a partnership with Amazon can have.

This seems like a great stock to hold long term especially if you believe the outlook. As for me I’m playing this for run up from news and profiting. I have November calls and will be willing to ditch them if we don’t hear anything by mid or early November.

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After posting this there was a conversation about the technology with @poonisher who is in aerospace industry. In summary, Redwire does make mission critical parts but not critical navigation technology. Long story short they don’t make anything special when they claim they do. However they are getting contracts so as long as they can keep doing that then outlook could be good.

I don’t think this information changes playing the potential news but could help with determining long term outlook. Always do your research!


Copied from trading floor chat:

So let’s sum up RDW. short term make some money based on news and moving toward them. Long term make some money if they continue to win contracts and keep them with award fees. That is a gamble that will depend on if they expand on their current success. They can not be profitable long term without expanding their current tech

Possible extremely good long term hold if they continue with innovation.

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I’m selling all my RDW positions. I suspect the amazon news was really the blue origin news. There are space related amazon projects that could be the RDW news but the blue origin space station news seems to fit the bill. This was never a gamma squeeze so selling or trimming on pop offs was a must. I did not elaborate on a trading plan and that is a mistake I don’t plan on making again in the future. Hopefully anyone that played this ended up profitable. My last position I’m selling for a loss but overall P/L is positive.

Side note: This is not to say RDW is not a good long term hold, but the play the news is over for me. RDW really treated us well.

Just FYI. Redwire is rescheduling their third-quarter results

with ER being rescheduled, doesnt this usually signify a bad ER, like what happened to prpl? Does anyone have any other info on RDW and maybe could add on to a bearish case?

this may be a bit different than PRPL because they did put out a clarification on the cause of the delay

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