fucky my ass what a day.
450 seemed to be a big sell zone which was the first half of the thesis. That’s a level to respect going into tomorrow.
I’m down a few % on my puts but theyre all super near or already itm, so no worried swinging those.
if we open rth above 450 then I’ll wait a few candles before cutting my puts. If we open below, ideally driven by any hint of hawkish sentiment from jpow, then ill look to hold onto them with raised stop limits.
Looks like PM showed the 450 level was still respected, as SPY is slowly trickling to the downside (currently hovering 447 at the time of this comment). jpow is speaking right now and he hasn’t addressed rates yet in a q&a session which i think he will get asked. at the very least, i suspect someone to ask him how digital shit will help the future market which will segway into overall market talk. this would be an icing on the cake to the trend that’s already showing this morning.
I’ll be cutting my 449 puts i grabbed at close at open and letting my 448’s ride. will be dicks deep in work onboarding so wont be around as much to trade but hope everyone who played this thesis from yesterday comes out profitable.
cut my 448’s for a decent 20% off the first GUH candle. still holding onto my 449. next buy zone is 442 area so eyeing that. have moved my stop limits up so im guaranteed some wins even if this goes south, but doesnt look likely.
stop loss hit on that gay ass rally. feel like there’s still more downside to explore today, but currently out of all my positions. Good luck to all.
sold into strength and some hard bounces. may test 450 again today. i’m personally sitting out until eod before i take a swing position. stay fluid with your levels.
qqq starting to pick up, spy still lagging with financials holding it down. seeing upside from here.
looks like there wasn’t upside 
something to note - tesla, which has had a huge run, has just wiped out all of it’s intraday gains already. When trading SPY, along with msft, amzn, and aapl, I look particularly at TSLA as a key indicator in market sentiment, primarily because of how volatile it is. The 1000-1050 range is a ‘testing’ area where there’s a lot of volume, both due to fomo and previous bagholders. I’m personally keeping an eye on how it closes, whether inside or below this range before deciding my move on spy for tomorrow.
levels remain intact.
yesterday we saw large sell orders come through near close, with a trickle down from that same level to open. there was a lot of chop with a market imbalance to the sell side yet again.
I grabbed some qqq and spy puts at 3:14 central, both itm by $1. medium term target is still the same at 442. Last time we tested this area it was bought out extremely quickly, this time i expect more of a fight between buyers and sellers. We’ll assess where to go once we see a confirmation on that level 
In case this has not been covered already, one of the things that seems to have fueled market sentiment is the “Fed dotplot” for the Fed Funds Rate.
(Original here on page 4 but Fed is anti-trendline…)
This shows us that the Fed doesn’t expect rates to rise in 2024, and actually decrease after.
So what does the market do? What it always does - it “prices in” easing two years from now and goes off to the races.
This is under their assumption that inflation will go down later this year and settle around the 2-3% mark in 2023/2024, thus meeting the fed rate “somewhere in the middle.”
(Source: Page 3)
So whether the dotplot ends up predicting fed rates accurately really depends on if we believe these inflation projections.
The bond market apparently does not share the equity market’s enthusiasm. It went, “hell no it won’t,” and proceeded to inch upward since the FOMC meeting.
For the short term, the tea leaves are unclear. The options market isn’t very helpful at this point. We’re in a balanced state, so to speak. The market is around zero gamma levels, and there is a healthy distribution of calls and puts all around the current strike:
(From SpotGamma)
We’re kind of left to our own devices for now.
Personally, I don’t understand how the Fed is still so optimistic. Without Russia-Ukraine, it is possible that’d we’d have been back to status quo within a year or two. After all, we did survive quite ok through a global pandemic, and the economy has been fiendishly strong.
However, the conflict makes supply chains even more broken, and peace tends to take longer to be found after a war than vaccines do after a pandemic. It is possible that we will see a spike in CPI next time around, and if it gets anywhere close to 10% - not entirely impossible given gas prices - the Fed will have to slam on the brakes hard.
And I think we’ll find then that the equity boys weren’t wearing seatbelts all along.
global markets seem a bit mixed right now, slightly leaning towards red. I’ll be waiting after first hour of market open before deciding to either average down or cut my losses. tesla looks like it wants another retard run so it may bring other blue chips and spy with it.
tech just turned, as we close out the hour it seems sellers are winning. I’m holding onto my puts for now (~17% down). We’ll see how rest of rth goes.
and there she goes.
cut at that single candle, watching rest of day for averaging down.
uptrend is back, looking to hop into calls on any dip or to swing overnight.
some mid day profit taking, starting a call position here. 448 couple weeks out.
Took a 4/14 445c also.
trimmed at that pop, letting some ride
volume and volatility coming in. my dumbass was eating a sandwich and didnt sell that top. holding for now with some stop losses. will update eod with thoughts on today’s action.
if these levels hold im grabbing a few amzn calls for a couple weeks out. it’s profit-taking sell off this morning was eventually all bought up, lagging behind rest of tech’s rally.
starting amazon position here
