When these stocks hit this level of oversold, they always rebound. Sometimes it is as low as +$5 for 1 day. But usually 2 days and +$10-$12. You can see this by looking at a 12-hour candle chart.
I’m personally bullish on fintech companies like PYPL, SQ, and FISV.
FISV, while not oversold and not showing the same type of bounciness as SQ and PYPL, is looking at forming a double bottom. I’d wait a few days for confirmation.
If you’re looking to get into options, know that SQ trades at a pretty high premium. For me, the PYPL 200C Dec 3 look the best. For SQ, I’m looking at the 220C.
Keep an eye on SPY. Yesterday was a crazy day.
The rest of this post is just screenshots of PYPL and SQ and what they do when they get oversold. Please enjoy my crayon drawings.
[size=6]PYPL[/size]
1 day, +$11 and 3 days, +$12
As of this morning, PYPL is trading below its May 2020 valuation, meaning all of its COVID boost is officially removed as was discussed in the following thread:
Given that PYPL is only down on some weaker forecasting and overall the business seems to be quite healthy, this may actually be close to a bottom for them on what could be somewhat of an overreaction to their earnings results. Being totally honest, most of these stocks that have these massive drops bleed heavily over the next few weeks. However, in this case I sorta feel differently about PYPL because their situation doesn’t seem to be quite as grim as companies like PTON, ZM, and DOCU.
Took a Feb 18th 140 strike call betting on somewhat of a rebound.
Bought one more to average down here. Looking for a double bottom. If I’m wrong and it continues down, I’m not going to average down further and will just accept this as a bad entry but look to be correct on the play overall in the coming days.
I would love to get some current perspectives on SQ. To me, it looks very tempting after last night’s AH dip brought the price down to where it was about a week ago. Also, I just learned that SQ owns Tidal, a competitor of Spotify, and I suspect that Tidal subscriptions might increase in light of the current news surrounding Spotify. I want to be very careful, what with earnings on the 24th.
If Apple will indeed release a software update that allows all iPhones to accept card payments via NFC, it would be bad news for $SQ. Despite the differences in implementation, I believe the market will take that news as a direct blow to $SQ, and this would compound the downside if earnings are anything but stellar. I own no positions, but tread with caution!
I’ve doubled down on my PYPL position here to normalize my cost average. Large risk, but I’ve got time and if things fall in place it could be quite profitable. Not a main trade.
Are you still primarily paying 2/18 or have you started to give yourself a little more time? Averaged down on my 2/18’s as well, just curious your thoughts.
I’m worried paypal would be affected by a potential amazon drop after earnings, so I’m considering waiting a bit more to enter a position. Do you think they are unrelated enough, or still think its worth the risk?
A buddy of mine estimated a drop to $125 yesterday using fibonacci retracement. I expect a bounce to $170 eventually, but unsure how it will play our with huge earnings these few weeks.
Cut my calls on this at open. PYPL is reacting way too strongly to downside SPY pressure. This would be a solid actual swing when the market stabilizes.
I feel like if I could do this play over, I would have been looking to grab LEAPs when PYPL started falling. But this is only because I am bullish on PYPL long term since I literally use it for everything.
You still have time to get LEAPS. Did you mean “put leaps”, which would have been brilliant, or do you mean LEAPS for upside movement? If you want LEAPS for upside on PYPL you really need a nice basing formation before it can make a serious move back upwards. Was also under the impression that the post earnings move was due to concerns about forward guidance, so there’s still that to contend with. I think you still have plenty of time to setup for PYPL LEAPS for the rest of the year - but it might be worth waiting until March before you do so.
