Well this will be more of redirection to better written DD on the company and directory to some news as it is going up faster then expected.
TLDR: Cheap natural gas stock focused on exporting US gas to EU and ASIA with rockstar management (Mostly ex Chenier founders / execs).
Biggest upswing expected in 2-4 months after start of construction of Driftwood project (All permits cleared) and finishing all finances for it shortly after, which should not be any problem considering the actual events…
FYI: Tellurian deals with Natural Gas (LNG) not gasoline.
45% since callout, since I hold shares I will probably keep them longterm. If any of you bought in short term calls, I recommend taking profit now or in 4-5$ which seems to long term resistance.
Bought some TELL Friday, sold at open today for some profit, but missed that big run in the first 10 minutes. Had too many positions open and was worried about things moving the wrong way.
The stock does seem to move more percentage-wise than other oil/gas (in both directions), just have to be conscience of support / resistance points.
Cramer reported on TELL and updated to “buy”… Time to sell?
I’ve been holding shares since @ $5 so I welcome this nice little pop. I missed the opportunity to average down so let’s see where it goes. 4.5-5 would be great. But so would $10 be ha!
Looking at the OI on the options chain, calls are getting pretty stacked for both April and July:
Thanks for this callout. Got in at 2.8 and just sold today at 4.1 for some nice gains. Will probably watch to buy back in.
Sold for 3.92 for 49% gain. Would have held longer, but spot uranium broke 50$ and going up, so moving funds there.
TELL is down to the 3-handle. Right now, natural has is in the news, and even though they are $12B short and a few years away from Driftwood being operational, the massive gap between US and Europe natgas prices may give them some headwind.
Thinking of starting a position as it does keep going higher time to time on gas-related sentiment.
On the options side, flow has been almost exclusively bullish:
Will Meade also shared this from UW - would be great if someone could corroborate.
The put to call ratio is 0.13:
All this is to say that folks are really bullish on TELL. Both because of what it is trying to do, and the current macro situation. Catch is that their storied CEO has not been able to close financing on this thing for years. He had promised Q2 2022, and that is about to pass.
All this is posturing for when the final investment decision (FID) eventually does close - the stock will rocket. TELL’s market cap is a paltry $2B. Their 2026 FCF alone is expected to be a few times that.
Why the massive discount then? Because there is duration risk - it is not clear when the FID will close, and this can could be kicked down the road indefinitely. That makes near-dated options very risky plays. So will be grabbing mostly commons, with a small side of options.
I may grab some calls. Watching that 3.30 and 3.52 resistance areas and wish I made entry closer to 3 support than here but good trend too.
Another thing is it of course trends the charts similar with BNO and USO, so likely the prices of gas and sentiment may be the main carrier of this now. If those fall I assume this will too??
Anyone looking to scalp scares on this one, that is restricted by PDT - it is a great candidate to sell 7/1 CC’s on for a exit - if it all works out
It seems to track both USO and UNG (last 6 months):
It’s generally underperformed as it is not outputting the good stuff at the moment.
Nevertheless, seems to have caught wind over the last five days such that it is outperforming USO/UNG.
The positive divergence seems to be mostly based on chatter and nothing substantive yet.
If the CEO compensation with bonus was 20 million it makes this look really bad for me. I have extensive experience in large projects and you get paid when you achieve results. Apparently he’s in control of the bonus system… In this stage of the project with mostly nothing to report that amount is totally irresponsible. It makes this look like the guy is just out for some retirement money. Hopefully I’m wrong for the sake of the small guy.
Can you link the source on that bonus?
Total speculation… Small buzz about EQT just took out a line of credit for $2.5B.
possible $2.5B equity infusion. We need $4B equity for phase 1. Between the cash available and the $ already spent on construction we’re at $1.5B. So, interesting that EQT took out a $2.5B LOC, which is exactly what we need (and their gas, probably in exchange for liquification capacity). If this happens, FID will follow shortly thereafter, then FNTP. A $2.5B equity infusion with gas takes the odds of DW phase 1 completion to 100%.
Anyone care to comment?
I saw it on yahoo, reported base salary was somewhere else and it was about one million: Tellurian Inc. (TELL) Company Profile & Facts - Yahoo Finance
I think it all including options vesting no? Also there is no info on how much he actually exercized.
And more importantly, you should keep in mind, he is founder of Cheniere… He most likely does not have to do this for “retirement money”. (For every 10k invested in cheniere between 2000-2002 you would have around 2m rn.)
One could assume he vested more during those 2 years…
His current estimated networth is around 500m at age of 69 (^_^)…