The Think Tank: Macro Discussion and Opportunities Brainstorming

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Nice daily video by Maverick as always: The Stock Market Bottom Is Here! 🤣 - YouTube

I’m gonna summarize his PoV at about 20:30 on what to look for to reliably determine a ‘bottom’. Maverick suggests watching for these 5 indicators:

  1. A cooling down of the 10 year yield.
  2. Yield curve inversions have to stop steepening, and at least pause if not reverse.
  3. USD needs to go down, e.g. DXY.
  4. More participation in investors/traders buying call options, signifying more conviction in the stock market.
  5. Inflation peaking + fed rate hike pause. Some argue that we have seen signs of this already, i.e. recent commodities pricing and recent inflation data.

In my personal noobie opinion, I think #5 is the most important for market sentiment.

& in the short term, all eyes should be on earnings and guidance for the possible ‘next leg down’ or perhaps a bear market rally caused by shorts covering/booking profits if earnings are strong.

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