I’m also closing RSX at open, if the underlying components of the ETF stops trading, the ETF may stop trading and then the options stops trading.
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LMT definitely has more upside with nations providing defensive equipment and Ukraine requesting more.
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With today being the ex-dividend date (2.80) for LMT, as well as the 5% spike up, would you recommend waiting for an entry?
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I’m considering taking a put at EOD. Very risky though.
I shared this in #trading-floor but decided to drop it here too; it was during a discussion related to RSX and possibly OZON puts.
Also interesting to note that russian companies were ordered to sell 80% of their foreign currency reserves, and their central bank freed up something like $7b in reserves too. And they ordered russian brokers to reject ‘sell’ orders for russian securities from foreign clients. Once that ban is circumvented and foreign sellers can get rid of the (junk) stocks, I think we might see another drop…
Source is this Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/emergency-measures-announced-by-russias-central-bank-2022-02-28/
Also h/t to @Rpgeek’s screenshot (attached).
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One problem I don’t think Putin really considered was the long-term effects. Even if there is a cease fire, sanctions will not be lifted any time soon. People will not want to buy Russian goods for quite some time. The EU will still continue working to become independent from Russian oil / gas.
Personally with it already breaking all time high’s I would definitely wait for a better entry. I’ve played it couple times during last week and was scalping it. Too risky to be holding personally for me
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Looking at the raw materials stocks we were tracking:
UNG was a bit of a disappointment, it hasn’t moved much and has continued downward even with European countries buying less. I’m wondering if this isn’t a bad time to buy?
BNO/Crude popped up and is holding, my concerns with oil were that the US could easily (temporarily at least) knock these down significantly by announcing a reserve release. Thinking puts might be right here.
WEAT moved a bit and I cut it thinking that was it, but it’s begun tracking up more. This one is actually giving me signals that all these movements are likely slow burn events and not necessarily something that will be immediately priced in. So longer out calls may actually be the play.
I’m currently focusing on the downward momentum in the Russia markets. I’m not sure its completely priced in at the moment so I’m collecting puts in these safe areas hoping for more downward momentum when the US trading stocks unhalt and MOEX reopens.
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For anyone looking into entry into military contractor stocks and can’t find it for $LMT, other alternatives to watch are $RTX $NOC and $GD.
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If the theory is that RSX is going to be delisted, then the play should be to get far OTM puts. Those could be 10x-20x returns, and are cheap to get a couple to gamble with.
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“We’re not gambling enough”
Stick with ITMs champ, we don’t know what’s going to happen.
Speaking of which, after going through it a little more I’m actually not 100% convinced these stocks will be delisted, I would actually except these halts to be lifted tomorrow, but we’ll see. Between now and then I’d say that RSX should continue it’s slow bleed.
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Thanks for sharing! Comparing to RSX makes good sense!
If you don’t mind, perhaps we could share the tickers more connected to plays after the worst of the conflict is over in this thread @thots_and_prayers started?
Since this one is more for the plays while the conflict is ongoing. Thanks!
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Wall Street Millenial makes a case for Norwegian oil and natural gas company Equinor ($EQNR) here at 7:40: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKRHCl3DmAI
Norway is the 2nd largest natural gas exporter in the EU after Russia, accounting for 20% of total imports.
Equinor is the largest oil and gas producer in Norway. It is majority owned by the Norwegian government. In 2021, they generated $29B in cash flow from operations, which is more than double the average over the past 5 years. This was driven largely by sky high natural gas prices. The insanely high European gas prices are not sustainable. However, if you believe Putin will continue to rampage across Ukraine, the potential for upside could be tremendous.
It’s been on a strong uptrend with resistance at $32.
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Equinor rallies more with the Brent Pil price than with gas price, and Im not sure if its the unlikely beneficiary… Its just us Norwegian winning a lottery again 
If you check the EU stock exchanges the past 14 days, you can easily see which one is held up by oil !
For Equinor there will be some upside, but its almost at all time high only exceded by its high in -08.
They have a lot on cash on hand now, as there have been halted a lot of development projects.
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For UNG, is anyone thinking that the Ukraine catalyst is being eclipsed by Biden’s plans to call congress to action and send him clean, renewable energy legislation tomorrow night? Word is that it’s supposed to be a large focus of his SOTU address, outside of the conflict happening now.
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I will post the ticker in Thot’s thread. However, from the top 10 holdings, YNDX is the only one traded in the US Exchange.
Prices for the other tickers are provided by the London Stock Exchange.
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OZON SEC filing.
Just saying what we already know. They believe they shouldnt be on the sanction list. They can use swift through partner banks, however they expect that they would be affected in various ways by sanctions if they have continued impact on russian economy, inclusing marerial impact to activity on their platform, and difficulty raising new capital. They say they have 80% foreign exchange liquidity (note: aren’t rhey reuired to sell this for ruble based on new rules by russian central bank?)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001822829/000119312522058347/d288048dex991.htm
I expect trading to resume today.
They will also release 2021 earnings details on April 5 with more on the outlook, could be another play if we see some recovery, that has to be a shitshow
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[size=1]Disclaimer: Don`t take the price target provided here as a realistic price target. The below just shows the scenario in which the individual companies in RSX are priced correctly as of yesterday. Obviously they are extremely volatile, if you check their charts, most of them had days last week with recoveries of 30-50% intraday. The below just highlights the discrepency between RSX share price and the value of their holdings. Normally in case of an ETF this difference should be negatable. Obviously ceteris paribus, the ETF would follow the individual values.[/size]
For RSX: their current market cap as of closing price of $10.85 is $959,140,000, while their Total Net Assets is $692M as of 28 February (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/russia-etf-rsx/holdings/). This suggests there is a potential for a 28% further drop for a PT of $7.82, or potentially an expected recovery of 39% of their holdings is priced in the current share price.
As per their 25 February holdings, on Monday 6 of their holdings traded (in this case did not trade) on MOEX. As of 25 Feb, these were worth $162M, or 11.5% of their assets.
Now the value of the individual stocks trading on Monday lost a mind blowing 57% from Firday close. (i don`t highlight NASDAQ halted stocks since they still dropped). Using the % of drop of the trading stocks (not entirely accurate i know, just estimating), a similar drop on MOEX traded stocks would result a further loss of $93M of RSX Net Assets bringing the total to $623M, which if Market cap = Net Assets for an ETF would translate to a further drop of 10%, totaling a drop of 35% from the current price to a share price of $7.05.
This of course assumes that the market priced the individual shares correctly on Monday, and not RSX and a similar drop in MOEX traded stocks. This also doesn`t account for the fact that market open on MOEX could and likely would bring down the price of currently traded holdings too. The individual stocks could of course recover or drop further, and NASDAQ halted stocks could also impact this, but this is an estimation based on closing prices for the potential target of RSX.
I will keep an eye on their updated holdings as of yesterday close, currently only 25 Feb is reported on their website
edit: Early morning movement on London exchange in the top 10 holdings. Volatile, seem to roughly avg out to no significant change overall in value without going into details.
edit2: nvm, mostly down again
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