Uranium to Uranus

Uranium

  • Basic logic:
    • Uranium price is at 46$/lb

    • Most companies do not break even until 60$/lb so they were happy to use covid to minimize their operations, therefor drying up their reserves even more

    • companies are buying up spot uranium for cheap to deliver their long term contracts for slightly higher prize with minimized operation costs

    • SPROTT started uranium fund (SRUUF) which is designed to buy and hold, not sell, spot uranium. Rising its price, which will allow them to issue share at higher price, to buy and hold even more…

    • SPROTT also recently took control of URNM, where SRUUF is one of the largest holdings… See the circle here?..

    • USA green push - boosts pretty much all AUS, US, CAD uranium producers, but the main selling point is still the fuckery that happened by combining all the points above, there is no way for uranium to go down. Spot is running out and it is “pay or lights out” stock.

    • Uranium is currently cheap as hell, even if it gets to 266$ per pound, the electricity price for monthly need of average household increase just by 8$… The expensive part is building reactors.

    • Now at 50-60$ it is break even, around 80$ it is like 2x profit…

  • Sources to check / follow
  • John Quakes
  • John Borshoff
  • Main tickers

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Also, I cant find the source / exact data now, but WHOLE US uranium market is something like 20-25b or so… 30% of ZM market cap for example…

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Will look into this, thanks for the info on it. I’ve been watching uranium stocks for a while.

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Nice DD. Another data point comes from China. They’re building 150 nuclear reactors now: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

These take time to come online but they may start sourcing uranium now. I’m looking for evidence of that now and will provide further updates.

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Thanks for the post. I was thinking of doing one myself, so I will instead just add a little bit.
I like CCJ due to the options chain, and because they are a Major player in this market.
Made 1200% off of CCJ options back in September.
OI for December is insane and has been for a few months.

Uranium bull runs are typically long (barring no disasters like Fukushima which may have halted the last run in 2011), so there will be some spikes and pull backs along the way.
Therefore this can be played for the long term, or if you time it correctly, the short term.

SPROTT Uranium Trust started buying Uranium in late August, so if you look at the chart for U stocks from that month until now, one can see their influence across the board.
John Quakes on Twitter has daily updates regarding the Uranium space, as well as when SPROTT adds to their stockpile.
https://twitter.com/quakes99?

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I like uranium but I’m concerned on the timeline. Reactors take a long time to build, and although new plants should hopefully open in Georgia and Wyoming next year, and I think second-world developing nations will be soon building them, there’s no way to predict when the demand will go up until it actually happens. I love uranium as medium to long term play but playing options is going to be tough to pick the right expiry date. Would be interested for more insight into specifics of expected timelines for growth/demand.

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I am curious to know anyone’s thoughts on URG (https://www.ur-energy.com/)

I was playing it as a scalping play for a while then took up a small (200 shares) position for my long term account with the infrastructure bill.

Yesterday they announced a shelf offering:

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20211123/A8B4G22CZC22LJZ2222P2ZZFEAWCZS22S232/

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Added Rolls Royce to tickers, since they already have working small modular reactors (SMR).

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I just read about Germany being in the process of decommissioning 6 nuclear reactors by the end of 2022. It’s potential bearish news near term regarding uranium/nuclear energy. However, I believe uranium is bullish because China is building 150 reactors. Here is the link to the German reactor news: Zerohedge

German is phasing out nuclear energy by 2022 as a result of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011. This was announced years ago and should not have any impact.

Yep, everybody is announcing shit like that after disasters, just to announce the opposite couple years later. They are not phasing out shit, there is energy shortage a nuclear is best option.

Older news, but just to add to the bull theory (or to cancel out other plants closing).
Illinois voted back in September to keep from closing 2 of their nuclear power plants.

And more recent news…

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In the infrastructure bill, there was a lot of money set aside for “next gen” nuclear development, and also for micro & small modular reactors.

I believe the plan is to take these small modular reactors to “retrofit” existing coal & ng power plants, removing the fossil fuel burning part, but keeping all the existing turbines & electrical equipment and such. Thus converting to a much greener alternative and a huge cost savings over building a new plant (and decommissioning an existing).

Nuclear might not be the answer in 100 years, but for at least the next 30 it’s going to be a necessity.

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Update 1. 3. 2022:

The Energy Department is considering options to expand U.S. uranium supplies to nuclear reactors that rely on Russian imports for current operation and next-generation research, the DOE’s top science official told senators Tuesday.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine last week has made the agency’s uranium-development efforts “even more urgent” Geraldine Richmond, undersecretary for science and innovation, said in testimony to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

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Spot #uranium 4950/5075 USc/Lb

Considering buying 1-2 month calls on the break of 50 bid.

I will probably go with this call:

Spot #uranium 5025/5125 USc/Lb

Bought calls: URA April 14 @1.8

Russian uranium exports to US amounts to 50%. If export of oil from russia is banned, uranium will probably get banned aswell from either side.


https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/6902686E-7AEC-47F8-8C38-5010A3A352D4

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Just a hint on how to play this.
URA / URNM calls usually work.
If you want to play specific tickers I would go for CCJ / UUUU / DNN with slight preference for latter two as they are lower market cap.

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Word of caution, KAP is second largest holdings for both URA and URNM. Might be better to play US stocks directly afterall.

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Well I guess tomorrow is going to be my opportunity to buy back my covered calls on DNN and CCJ that were under water, so… yay? :confused:

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