oof thread title was a little too on point.
I did take a small positions in URA and CCJ yesterday morning. Ended up scalping the CCJ for 15% intraday, but the URA is gonna be down a bit at open.
Maybe we should have anticipated or at least considered a russian attack on a nuclear plant, maybe there was no way to know. Regardless I appreciate the insight into the sector. Thanks Daniel.
I just took some march 18 UUUU $9 calls
Probably good timing, spot was on the verge of breaking out before this shit. Spot dropped and rebounded quickly. In better case scenario ban of russian uranium will be accelerated and spot will rise enough that this sector wont be overlooked. I am still holding the calls (Apr 14) at about 40% loss right now, so will probably just add some cash and buy more, as I am expecting / hoping this to be turned around fairly quickly in the next two weeks.
Fixed the title.
Between:
it is possible uranium prices will see significant dislocation in the near future.
Kazakhstan is an interesting one. They had massive unrest earlier this year that Russian troops had to be brought in to quell. They had been trying to enact reforms but recent events firmly put the country in Russia’s orbit. Yet, Kazakhs seem to be supportive of Ukraine in the current conflict and has allowed protests.
Kazakhstan’s stature in the uranium world is like that of the Saudis in oil, but larger. They product 41% of the world’s supply, with Kazatomprom producing more than half of Kazakhstan’s share - 22% of that total. And they have significant spare capacity.
Given their pivotal role, worth keeping an eye on Kazakhstan. Some possibilities:
If I were to play this, I’d probably do so either through the ETFs URA (exposure to all producers) and SRUFF (for spot price exposure though this will be volatile). And not the companies directly (like CCJ) because they all have their own weirdness.
Additional Reference: Kazatomprom’s investor presentation from 2019
Spot price up 25c.
ASX uranium up around 10%.
Musk spamming about uranium:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1500613952031444995
Should be good week.
I bought some CCJ & DNN Mar-18 calls Friday on that dip because they were cheap. Expecting to see uranium go up this week just on sentiment. Doesn’t look like Russia is going to let up any time soon and tensions & sanctions are only getting worse.
Agree with you on all points, except the ETFs near term. I believe I might have made mistake buying specifically into URA calls, as 25% of its holdings is in Kazatomprom, which has risk of being sold to oblivion because of the possibility that russia block their exports.
I picked up an APR call on UUUU.
If they ban oil, uranium will probably follow one way or another. Massively accelerating the play. Just keep in mind. WHOLE uranium industry in US is around 20b… Once the money starts flowing in it is gonna go fast.
Spot price bid is already at 51$ gapping up 50c today from 50.25$ week ago, which is fairly big move in the sector.
I exited my position yesterday, wondering if the sanctions not including Uranium doesn’t hold it back some
Like I said above, the fact that it is not included in US sanctions, might not mean it wont be blocked. It was not included, because US nuclear sector begged Biden not to include it. Russia sees the 50% dependency and there is high chance they will ban it out of spite, as it is fairly small revenue compared to the oil.
… risk of being sold to oblivion because of the possibility that russia block their exports.
Hmm, I feel like it’s more likely that Kazakhstan will side with Russia on this, and if they don’t Russia will send their “peacekeepers” back again to make sure they do. It is unlikely that Russia will lock out Kazakhstan.
The exposure to this dynamic is real, though perhaps not as acute with respect to the ETFs. I chose URA over URNM because of their lower levels of exposure to Kazatomprom. URA seems to have 5% in Kazatomprom versus 11% in the case of URNM. Didn’t quite see a 25% figure though.
Fwiw, Kazatomrpom had a good day too - up 19% on the LSE:
We don’t have a way to play this directly as there is no OTC, even.
You are right. I somehow managed to mix up CCJ (22%) and KAP numbers. 
And yes, Kazachstan is extremely risky, the green day on KAP caught me off guard, really did not see that one coming.
Actually I found where I got the numbers. Yahoo finance shows different holdings from their official website!..
Sorry again for the mistake, URA should have minimum risk in that case. Also KAP is still going up, dont understand why, but ill take it lol.
Yahoo finance:
Chernobyl “Blackout”… Another day, another “radiation” fear mongering. Not sure how markets will react this time, maybe opportunity to buy the dip… European markets and futures still up big tho.
(https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1501531157510426625)
https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1501528837221494790
Its to early to tell. If its not contained its a ticking “bomb” wich will cause alot of trouble.
I think its better to wait for more news to get clarity on whats really going on at Chernobyl
