This is pretty half-assed and probably not worth reading.
I’m starting this topic to get the ball rolling on what I think the biggest opportunity in the energy sector is right now: Oil & Gas Exploration a la Hydraulic Fracturing.
That’s right. FRACKING
For the uninitiated, this is a process whereby drillers inject mostly water and sand to blast apart shale and coal seams and release trapped oil and gas. It’s an enema for the planet.
Why Shale? What makes this different from any other energy play?
I see two primary catalysts in oil right now: Lessened pandemic restrictions and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In my opinion, these present plenty of room for growth in U.S. shale. In January 2022, the U.S. surpassed Russia in being Europe’s primary gas provider; any sanctions targeting Russia energy would increase this reliance. Even before the tension started to rise in Russia-Ukraine, oil prices were near pre-pandemic levels and growing.
Bear Case
The most pressing and most likely bear case for U.S. Shale is the potential 1 million bpd Iran is ready to add to global oil market when the nuclear deal is finalized. This represents about 1% of the world total oil production and is a nothing-burger in my opinion.
A second bearish outcome could come from developments in the COVID-19 pandemic. If a new strain (such as the Omicron variant in 2021) slows global re-opening, we will experience less growth than expected.
Groupie’s List
Here is the entirety of my watchlist related to shale:
/CLJ22
April 2022 Crude Futures. This is the price benchmark I like. Shouldn’t need an explanation. Oil play cares about oil price.
$XLE
SPY for energy sector. Seriously. It’s a sector-select SPDR ETF managed by SSGA, the same people that manage SPY.
$XOP
This is our bread and butter. If you don’t watch any other tickers on this list, at least watch XOP. This is another SSGA S&P ETF, this time with an emphasis on oil & gas exploration.
$COP
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company’s portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
$HAL
Halliburton Company provides products and services to the energy industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Completion and Production, and Drilling and Evaluation. The Completion and Production segment offers production enhancement services that include stimulation and sand control services; cementing services, such as well bonding and casing, and casing equipment; completion tools that offer downhole solutions and services, including well completion products and services, intelligent well completions, and service tools, as well as liner hanger, sand control, and multilateral systems; production solutions comprising coiled tubing, hydraulic workover units, downhole tools, and pumping and nitrogen services; and pipeline and process services, such as pre-commissioning, commissioning, maintenance, and decommissioning. This segment also provides electrical submersible pumps, as well as artificial lift services. The Drilling and Evaluation segment offers drilling fluid systems, performance additives, completion fluids, solids control, specialized testing equipment, and waste management services; oilfield completion, production, and downstream water and process treatment chemicals and services; drilling systems and services; wireline and perforating services consists of open-hole logging, and cased-hole and slickline; and drill bits and services comprising roller cone rock bits, fixed cutter bits, hole enlargement, and related downhole tools and services, as well as coring equipment and services. This segment also provides cloud based digital services and artificial intelligence solutions on an open architecture for subsurface insights, integrated well construction, and reservoir and production management; testing and subsea services, such as acquisition and analysis of reservoir information and optimization solutions; and project management and integrated asset management services. Halliburton Company was founded in 1919 and is based in Houston, Texas.
$DVN
Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, primarily engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It operates approximately 5,134 gross wells. Devon Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
$CHK
Chesapeake Energy Corporation, an independent exploration and production company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of properties for the production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs in the United States. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana; and the liquids-rich resource play in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. As of December 31, 2021, it owned interests in approximately 8,200 gross productive wells, including 6,500 wells with working interest and 1,700 wells with an overriding or royalty interest; and had estimated proved reserves of 661 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
$PXD
Pioneer Natural Resources Company operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States. The company explores for, develops, and produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and gas. It has operations in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had proved undeveloped reserves and proved developed non-producing reserves of 130 million barrels of oil, 92 million barrels of NGLs, and 462 billion cubic feet of gas; and owned interests in 11 gas processing plants. Pioneer Natural Resources Company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
$LPI
Laredo Petroleum, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the United States. The company sells oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. As of December 31, 2021, it had assembled 166,064 net acres in the Permian Basin; and had total proved undeveloped reserves of 86,592 thousand barrels of oil equivalent. The company was formerly known as Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Laredo Petroleum, Inc. in December 2013. Laredo Petroleum, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
$TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company’s Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 4,000 additional net royalty acres located in the western part of Texas. In addition, this segment engages in easements and commercial leases activities, such as oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility easements, and subsurface wellbore easements. Further, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche. Its Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water gathering/treatment, infrastructure development, disposal solutions, water tracking, analytics, and well testing services to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds royalties for water sourced from its land. Texas Pacific Land Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.