Deutsche Bank coming in with a revised $30 price target, suggesting that the market is still pricing in too low a chance of success even after the run from $7 to $14.
https://twitter.com/spacanpanman/status/1559611173317873668?s=21&t=a88HAQsSkm3OTlid2Cp3pA
Still looking for Morgan Stanley, who was on the call last night, to initiate coverage and possibly come in with a PT of their own. They seemed very interested in the data on the call yesterday.
I was really into them at the end of 2021 and had some $10c for $3.90 for 1/2023 and after they bled for a few months, was able to sell for $2.90 on the last pop in March to get out. The market as well as myself was in a different state and was hoping to get in at another time but didn’t realize they did so well the past few weeks. Going to let IV drip down and grab some longer dated calls again later because the company and the tech excites me.
How do you feel about a short squeeze happening? Saw you check the short interest in the bot channel.
Still feel good about it considering they are still on track for launch in the next 2-3 weeks.
This either (a) already squoze (to $14), or (b) is just consolidating now at $12. Hard to say. But it’s still heavily shorted and a very thin public float, with insiders and the sponsor clearly not interested in selling (they do seem to be tapping their $75MM B. Riley equity facility, however).
In any event it’s a long hold for me. Not touching my shares, or most of my warrants. Just been trading 10c/12.5c and warrants opportunistically.
Exactly what I was thinking.
Dropping this here to share. Looks interesting.
Seems like there has been some selling recently in fear of a possible direct to mobile announcement from Elon for Starlink: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1562477813613047811?s=21&t=eTGrjyC-6BCQJxBBRHVq6Q
Looks like the fear was warranted. Elon announced direct to mobile for Starlink which is both bearish for ASTS due to increased competition in the space and bullish due to the credibility boost that Elon entering will give it. Might be worth looking at puts tomorrow for the short term but also a good time to pick up cheap shares/calls after the reactionary selling.
Elons tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1562956451538014209?s=21&t=1xDA9arWWtfYnqcLE4oWww
Agree that it is both validating (and ASTS is inarguably father ahead in their tech) in the short and medium term, and potentially a threat in the long term. But I think the company was always aware that there would eventually be competition in the satellite direct-to-handheld space.
I took enough profit lately that I will look at buying any dip. If BlueWalker 3 is a success, this Elon news proves that ASTS would become a massive acquisition target.
Did some quick TA, if you look at the chart, ASTS has been having some pretty wild swings. I don’t think the recent news is affecting this. $11.30 could just be standard deviation. In my opinion, I’d be worried if it breaks the $11 support.
Very much agree on the TA. The chart still looks strong.
It’s hard to say what the SpaceX/TMUS news means for AST exactly. There will be a TON more attention on the space now that Elon is showing he’s interested, and in many ways it’s a validation of AST’s technology.
What Elon is proposing is a much more limited service (compared to AST) - no broadband yet - on a pretty vague timeline. But he has virtually unlimited resources to accomplish it. And he’s ruthless.
If BW3 launch and testing are successful, however, I think this is a strong sign that it will be a huge acquisition target (for AT&T, Bezos, or even SpaceX itself if an agreement between TMUS and AT&T - who has an exclusive agreement with AST currently - can be reached). And the valuation would……not be low.
Scotiabank, who has admittedly been bullish on AST for a while already, sees this as a positive development:
Up 6% on a day when indexes would have dictated it being down 5+%. TMUS finished down 3%. The market may have spoken that this is actually bullish news for ASTS.
Up again this morning after increasing media coverage over the weekend, and an Overweight rating by Barclays this morning.
Data from Mimir looking very squeezey with ~2 weeks to launch:
Tweet from the CEO today. Launch scheduled for Saturday if the weather holds. Living in Florida I can tell you it has rained daily from around 1-5pm so don’t be alarmed if the launch is delayed… I’m not sure how the sp will react to a successful launch since its SpaceX and not RKLB or ASTR and most all launches are a success… Still believe the big move for this stock will come with successful news of unfurling a few weeks after launch but we will see. Gap on the daily chart at 9.17 if you’re looking for a better entry but this close to launch I’m not sure how much more it will fall…
If this comes back to $9 for a gap fill and is still there after successful launch/unfurling, I think it becomes a very compelling short term trade and long term investment.
Move down to $10.50 seems mostly driven by macro. News in the past weeks has been nothing but positive - even the announcements from SpqceX/TMUS and Apple/Globalstar have been validating of AST’s tech and business model.
Assuming the tech works, of course, then this could be a massive opportunity in the making. If anything, I’m somewhat thankful for the weak macro keeping this potentially very cheap even after major derisking. Analysts who gave $30 PTs factoring in unfurling risk would be upping those to $50+ post-unfurling, presumably. Fingers crossed that things go well.
ATM announced this morning. Not too concerned, its needed and with strong catalysts coming very soon I’m assuming we will see some heavy volume days where they can dump shares to raise much needed capital and not kill the sp or momentum (assuming all goes according to plan of course). Reminder launch is this Saturday night if it isn’t delayed, still unsure if Monday will be a “sell the news” day or not. Unfurling of satellite should take place 1-2 weeks after successful launch and I’d assume they will give PRs along the way… successful launch/unfurling is a big de-risk so I’m hoping we see some solid upward movement in the coming weeks to month as long as they can execute. GL. Holding Oct/Nov 10/12.5c with a big cheap hedge on the Nov. 5p just in case something catastrophic happens (unlikely but ya never know)
Launch a 100% success from what we know so far. BlueWalker3 was released successfully, is now in orbit, and the AST team is in contact with it.
Likely next big event will be unfurling of the full array some time in the next two weeks.
Anyone who is new to learning about the company should check out the link below - great compilation of DD with a long term value estimate calculator at the end of the deck:
Company officially announced a successful launch, and has uploaded some great interviews with some of its partners (Vodafone, American Tower and Nokia) from launch night.
The one with the head of R&D for Vodafone is especially interesting, as he calls AST’s technology “the most exciting thing” currently happening in the telecom industry.
