This is what the inflation swap market is pricing in now - inflation of < 3% in 8 months.
This is possible if we hit no more than 0.1% MoM inflation.
(Source - I maintain this.)
This month’s lower inflation report was made possible by a combo of lower energy prices, price of used cars and cost of medical care. The rate of increase of most other categories are also decreasing. I suppose it’s possible we end the year with sub 3% inflation, assuming there are no shocks. Main one we have to look out for is around energy; specifically crude oil. For now though, perhaps we can be cautiously optimistic.
