Leaps on Ford Motor Company

rexxxar · January 3, 2022, 4:59pm

Update:

Ford is showing some bullish strength on the 4hour candles…

IF it drops and bounces again over $15, I’ll finally start my leaps.
I simply want the 13 and 48 (or 21 and 55) EMA lines to cross upwards, for my long call positions.

Update:

With Ford getting a direct mention last night from POTUS, a short bullish rally is expected…

And as you can see on the Daily candles chart, that lower gap to 15.92 got filled.
Looking at both the RSI and the BB%b indicators, though, make me want to wait a bit longer before adding a lot to my position.
I’d like for both to go full under and then recover.
Nonetheless, this isn’t a bad place to start looking for entries.

What this is: Short DD on Ford long positions.
Who is this for: Long term investors looking for solid stocks to sit some capital on.

TLDR:
Shares Float - 3.917B
Dividend Yield - 1.93%
Price to Earnings Ratio (time of writing) - 28.66
My Price Target - $30-33 for 2023 leaps, based on TA.

Homepage - https://www.ford.com/
Investors site - https://shareholder.ford.com/investors/overview/default.aspx?gnav=footer-aboutford

This is Ford’s Monthly chart…

From the high of April 1999, it has fallen all the way down to $1.01, on Nov 2008.
Since then, Ford has traded in the range of 4-20.

I believe Ford is almost done accumulating here, and is primed to blow past its ATH of 37.41 in the next year or so.
With such a high cap of almost 4B shares, it takes a lot to moves the stock price.
Regardless, things are looking bright for this institutional American car brand.

While typing this work, Ford tested the price of 21.77, working to break the old support-now-resistance line of 21.69–marked in Pink.
I’m looking for it to continue vibrating in this range of 18-23, and then it should lift off–assuming all goes well.
2nd support line is 17.33, so if your looking to get ITM options, I’d consider that and 18.97–both marked in Purple.

Related News…

Externals sources for data…

Fintel…

Barchart Opinion (Ai)…

Options Calculators…

rexxxar · January 4, 2022, 5:11pm

Ford continues the 2022 rally with good sentiment…

I wasn’t expecting it to test 24 until the end of this month, but it’s pleasant to see it now.
This is only the 2nd trading day of the year.
My wife is way too excited though.
I had her buy our leaps this year.

Figos · January 5, 2022, 12:23pm

Thank you Rexxar;) Im looking for more plays from you, not sure if its to late to join the train now, but Im bullish. As for me I work full time, and hard for me to play the market sometimes. I’m always looking for good long term play and you got some more share them pls

rexxxar · January 5, 2022, 1:30pm

I appreciate the trust on my work, bud.
And no, I don’t think it’s too late to start on leaps with Ford.
It might trade sideways for a bit here in this channel of 22.5-25, before continuing to move up.
So maybe watch out for a cheaper entry when it’s around 23–or not, it might just shoot straight up. haha
I say anything under 25 atm is a good enough buy for leaps here.

Few other tickers I’m watching yeah, will alert once I get confirmation on their chart movements–or at least confidence in relation to the market.

rexxxar · January 7, 2022, 1:19pm

Ford tested 25 at preM today…

Looking at the options chain, 26 may be possible this month if things hold up.

SailorZon1791 · January 7, 2022, 1:22pm

Been long on Ford for awhile, good to see it finally cruising, Cost basis is 8.11, going to continue adding to my position! Thanks for the DD Rexxar

rexxxar · January 10, 2022, 10:59pm

Quick updates on this after that 1st trading week of 2022…

Barchart Opinion Ai

Call Options prices via Barchart

Shorts Interest with Conq’s DTC computation

The overall market trend is still shaky and undecided.
Ford remains above my bullish price of 22 for January.
Let’s if it will hold 23-24 to force that MM hedging next week.

rexxxar · January 11, 2022, 6:56pm

Ford did a Double Bottom today from yesterday…

Did some of you catch that?

Here’s the options chain for next week…

rexxxar · March 2, 2022, 1:44pm

FML–I forgot to publish this draft 2 weeks ago. I am very sorry.

Finally going back to this…

Ford was generous with me at the beginning of the year with over 150% gain in 1 account, and another at a little over 50%–that was the bullish play at the start of this thread.

Now things have calmed down again and I’m willing to swing once more.
As you can see on the chart above, we have 2 gaps.

18.63 to 19.89 (most recent)
16.55 to 15.92 (from Oct 27, 2021)

RSI has started curling up on the Daily candles chart.
The Stochastic indicator is pretty much confirming the same movement.
Volatility has curved down even further.
And the MACD lines are about to touch. I love it when things touch.

So, I’ll be playing both gaps.
The 1st big gap which is more recent has my attention, that goes to 20.
But I will also be ready to catch a possible move to the downside of 16.

rexxxar · March 2, 2022, 2:12pm

My thoughts updated on the main body above.
TLDR: Not a bad place to start a position here.

T_Milly · March 2, 2022, 2:23pm

Don’t know if this is the right FORD thread but Ford reports it’s total US sales for February 2022.

129,273 Vehicles
Down 21% compared to February 2021

Ford also reporting sales of EVs had increased 55% through February.

Isaiah · March 2, 2022, 2:25pm

Yep , I think they lowered their forcast for 2022. One thing I will say about ford is they are very media friendly and are prone to have these catalyst events wether upside or downside.

rexxxar · March 2, 2022, 2:26pm

Great input, bud! Thank you.
Those numbers can only help push confidence on this American brand.

jjcox82 · March 2, 2022, 2:35pm

I would be cautiously optimistic on F they are currently in as bad of shape in manufacturing and supply chain as anytime as in it hasn’t gotten better. Which would have a direct correlation on their drop in February sales. Keep in mind February of last year was when semiconductor shortage started brewing.

I think it will pump for few days based off being mentioned last night. However the only reason these legacy auto manufacturers are getting into the EV segment is the need to meet CAFE fuel standards to be able to sell their true money makers trucks and suvs. Keep in mind in 2021 Ford stopped production of all sedans so they need fuel efficiency to meet these EPA requirements. If gas continues to rise a 2008 scenario could hit the big 3 as well which destroyed the American auto manufacturers.

The EV segment is growing more and more competitive everyday and don’t have a lot of faith in Ford to be able to get their big share they would need because of limited production constraints.

rexxxar · March 2, 2022, 3:47pm

Thanks for the input, bud! This helps the bear case well.

jjcox82 · March 2, 2022, 9:47pm

A little more info on Ford E separation. Seems they will report earnings separately. Makes some sense from standpoint of engineering and manufacturing.

https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/ford-separating-ev-ice-businesses?fbclid=IwAR0_otrhjf7nHZHSp9pxui3gv6Dl0JzZIyTdXzxGp-DBuFt_rX0_sEC7biE

spencettu · March 4, 2022, 2:05am

I was just going through the forums at f150gen14.com. They have a spreadsheet for members who ordered the Lightning. Looks like the earliest estimated build date is 4/18 for people in wave 1. Hopefully we get a nice pop from production and delivery announcements in the next few months.

jjcox82 · March 4, 2022, 3:13am

Don’t buy the hype. Told the media they doubled production well I can confirm they in fact are really only gonna produce 12k for first build. One of Largest F series dealers in my area is getting a whopping 1 for entire model year is in fact scheduled for mid april though. F has strong future but we are at very least a year away before they get their shit back in line.

Groupie · March 4, 2022, 4:45pm

$F lost almost a dollar this morning off of SPY dip from Zapor-asdfasdfasdf plant news.
It’s currently trading at 200-day EMA.
Do we think there’s more room for it to drop? Are we nearing entry for longer plays?

rexxxar · March 4, 2022, 9:28pm

2be58e39-c48c-4820-b307-1fd04864c902.pdf (151.0 KB)

This just came in.
CEO sold options? Someone know how best to read this filing?