The Situation Room

[Conqueror]

[calendar]
[/calendar]

The goal of this thread is for Asgard tier members to discuss the overall market and moves they’re planning to make. A lot of things often get lost in the shuffle so hopefully this thread will help us keep things more organized while we work on some feature enhancements I think will prevent us from “missing things” in the future.

I’ve added a calendar to this post, in order to add an event to it, simply click the calendar icon in the toolbar:

And add the timeframe that you’re watching a certain play for. You can then type a description for the event just above the code that is added into the post.

[Conqueror]

CPI Numbers
2022-05-11T12:30:00Z→2022-05-11T12:30:00Z

I’m going to be looking for what stocks I’ll be playing during the CPI numbers release. Obviously SPY is a big one but I’m thinking TSLA might be a better target.

Edit times currently aren’t working but I’ll fix that tomorrow

[Kevin]

$VERU puts
2022-05-10T07:00:00Z→2022-05-12T13:00:00Z

May 10
Pre-EUA meeting on $VERU: article linked by @Shamu #veru what I thought was a biopharm p and d - #20 by Shamu

Should be a binary event upon press release on the result.

May 12 - Premarket
Earnings call. Could hear more info here but I believe the main play is for May 10. If stock moons on a good result on May 10, and your puts become worthless, you could hold through earnings and see if it saves you, like a fallback position.

Positions
05/20 7.5p and 5p - SMALL SIZE

[Kevin]

PPI - Premarket
2022-05-12T12:30:00Z

PPI numbers come out on this day. On the previous PPI print, it was quite bad, in that excluding food and energy it still came out double the expected.

Typically a hot PPI precedes a hotter CPI, which statistically implies that we should see a hot CPI coming up.

Note that on the previous PPI print the market didn’t seem to care, and it was green. But worth noting imo we should take note of the PPI print.

Link to PPI analysis from last time: Stagflation leading to Recession - The Kodiak Bear Thesis - #98 by Kevin

[Conqueror]

AMR Calls
2022-05-10T13:00:00Z→2022-05-17T13:00:00Z

Looking at taking an AMR call at some point, had some success with a swing on this and after good earnings and guidance they seemed to be knocked down pretty hard in the SPY downturn.

For more on AMR: U.S. Coking Coal Producers Bull Case - $BTU, $HCC, $AMR & Others

[Conqueror]

#ea PUTS because of loss of FIFA contract
2022-05-10T04:00:00Z→2022-05-11T04:00:00Z

Took a quick put on this to ride into close, will likely cut before because earnings are tonight, however, afaik FIFA is huge for them and this could signal that in this day and age sports leagues aren’t seeing a need to be beholden to EA anymore. Could be a catalyst for some downward momentum today / tomorrow after earnings.

Will be prioritizing CPI plays though tomorrow I think.

[rexxxar]

SPY Strangles - TA PLAY tracking the bottom of Kertnel Channel
2022-05-09T04:00:00Z→2022-05-16T04:00:00Z

Lots of catalysts in the coming days, Kevin already cited PPI on Thursday.
Tomorrow we’ll have Core Inflation reports.
Looking for a move back upward or a quick flush even further down.

I already got in 1 batch yesterday, but looking to get in a 2nd before today’s close.

[Kevin]

CVT Massive Share Unlock

2022-06-06T13:30:00Z

CVT - Massive Share Unlock on Monday, June 6

Today I caught some Twitter wind about a massive share unlock on #CVT Cvent. They’re a deSpac through DGNS from Q4 2021. I’m doing some digging now. Here’s what I found. TL;DR Shares Outstanding = 481,140,000 Shares Unlocked on Monday, June 6 = 461,392,605 — that’s 96% of the shares outstanding! Links: March 2022 10-K December 31, 2021 S-1/A Q2 Earnings Presentation Slides Lock-Up Expiration DD On page 70 of the 10-K under the Risks section: In connection with the consummation of the Reverse Recapitalization Transaction, Vista received approximately 397.7 million shares of Company Common Stock. The Company also entered into a registration rights agreement with Vista and certain other stockholders, pursuant to which it granted certain registration right to Vista and the other stockholders party thereto. Following the expiration of any lockup period applicable to shares of Company Common Stock held by Vista, it or its affiliates may sell large amounts of Company Common Stock in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The registration and availability of such a significant number of shares of common stock for trading in the public market may increase the volatility in the Company’s stock price or put significant downward pressure on the price of its stock. In addition, the Company may use shares of its Common Stock as consideration for future acquisitions, which could further dilute its stockholders. After the applicable lock-up periods expire, an additional 461,392,605 shares of Common Stock (including 37,389,301 shares issuable upon exercise of options) will be eligible for sale in the public market. If our existing stockholders sell substantial amounts of our Common Stock in the public market, or if the public perceives that such sales could occur, this could have an adverse impact on the market price of our Common Stock, even if there is no relationship between such sales and the performance of our business. As of December 31, 2021, Vista owned approximately 82.7% of our outstanding Common Stock. Accordingly, the Company is a “controlled company” for purposes of the Nasdaq listing requirements. As such, the Company is exempt from the obligation to comply with certain corporate governance requirements, including the requirements that a majority of its board of directors consists of independent directors, and that it has nominating and compensation committees that are eachcomposed entirely of independent directors. These exemptions do not modify the requirement for a fully independent audit committee. If the Company ceases to be a“controlled company,” it must comply with the independent board committee requirements as they relate to the nominating and compensation committees, subject tocertain “phase-in” periods. According to this tweet, Vista Equity acquired their stake in April 2016 when $CVT was valued at 1.65B. The current marketcap is 2.4B. That’s about a ~1.5X return. I found the source of the timeline here. …

Likely taking 07/15 5p for this play.

[rexxxar]

NIO pre-ER Strangles
2022-06-06T04:00:00Z→2022-06-08T04:00:00Z
ER is scheduled for preMarket on Thursday.

I’ll most likely enter tomorrow, Tuesday, before market close…

And exit Wednesday by 3:58pm, or as soon as I see good profit.