Good morning,
In keeping with my recent test of doing post earnings plays, TGT meets the criteria I’ve been running for playing post earnings put scalps. So that’s probably what I’ll do shortly after open if I like what I see.
DG has moved down in sympathy, reports earnings next week or the week after I believe. I’m gonna monitor it’s movement and potently take calls for a few weeks out to ride it back up to earnings.
Won’t be super active today but that’s what I’m watching
Watching this setup here. We have an a fib level that is being backtested. If it confirms below and we get an EMA cross, Ill be taking May 27th $390p on spy
Took a 2% there also 
Out of straddle puts here
For those that mentioned DE or are curious about earnings tomorrow premarket, Here’s some info.
$DE:
-Number of past releases: 25
-Average absolute move : 6.46% +/- 3.35%
=> range of previous moves 3.11% to 9.81%
-Percentage of higher-than-expected moves: 48.0%
-Stock moved in same direction for 1.8 days on average on past releases.
-Stock reversed direction during day of release 48% of the time on past releases.
-Correlation with SPY on release day: 5.8%
-Same sector correlation with SPY on release day: 5.7%
Last 3 earnings movements:
DE traditionally beats earnings.
Overall market sentiment and post earnings plays have been overwhelmingly bearish recently. Keep that in mind. Make good choices!
For anyone that played #swn last time, energy uncertainty is trending again. Swn- Naty Gas Producer. SWN had a big move on the daily.
Im looking at calls, hopefully after testing 7.20 as support, but if the trend is strong ill be jumping in. Im thinking mainly scalps. The last run was pretty good, macro supports higher prices for now, as supply challenges ripple around the world. Im not sure what to expect from commodities the rest of this year. Production across the board is challenged and expensive while the reserve side is starting to reveal interesting behavior around the world. Like protests and government hoarding. So I believe the supply side will continue to feel restrictive. Im not planning on holding anything overnight. Just looking for short term bullish trends.
I’m watching SNAP this morning for some volatility scalps at open. Its down horrendous. It meets criteria I set for post earnings put scalps tho it wasn’t earnings related. Gonna play it either direction as it’s likely gonna be violent.
Watching ZM, though not confident as it didn’t have the moves that pre earnings IV suggested it would have. Unless I see a direction chosen I will likely just watch.
Keeping an eye on TSLA as it’s not looking healthy imo.
Big premarket data coming out
If payroll and unemployment numbers come out hot, showing strong economy, it means the fed isn’t doing enough to cool the economy and they have room to act more hawkish and should act more hawkish. So on a macro basis this would be bearish but how the stock market might react is anyone’s guess. Stock market could interpret it as “RECESSION CANCELLED WOW BUY BUY BUY”
As Maverick of Wall Street mentioned in his video today, the fed is trying to play a psychology game instead of raising rates aggressively. They want to see the economy slowing, for the job market to respond to the current fed actions.
Been spending some time the last few weeks looking into the Auto Retail and lending industry.
Will post a thread when I have more time this weekend, but this is the best target I have found.
#AN
AutoNation - America’s largest dealership
ATH was at 133 earlier this year, stock currently sitting at 120.
Been watching OI on the chain, has been weak but starting to show a little life.
Macro environment is obviously in play, but the auto industry has its own unique challenges ill update when I get to work.
Im looking at puts on the July and Oct strikes.
Hope everyone has a great day
Keeping an eye on #hyg today, this is a key support line, Im looking to play July 78p, but also the correlation with spy has been stronger lately.
Looking forward to your post on this however I’d myself be on the bullish side on this one.
Keeping an eye on ALTU redemption numbers. They have a special meeting coming up on June 10th to approve the deadline extension. Shareholders have until June 9th to redeem their shares. It’s a long shot but if there’s high redemptions we could possibly have a ESSC/THCA situation depending on the number of redemptions given that ALTU is optionable. Of course, the trust could just get liquidated and the warrant pricing suggests that this the expected outcome.
Keeping an eye on the Aug IPOF 10c. IPOF 10c have been great for scalping. Buy when sentiment is really bad and sell on one of the hopium driven pumps. I’ll look to add if they drop close to $.10
Clean bounce, I’ve taken profits and calling it a day.
Watching XHB - Homebuilders ETF. #xhb
New home starts were down -14% vs -2.6% consensus for the month of May, with overall building permits down -7%.
Looking at July 15th, 48p
Cut full position on XHB roughly 30%
I’m liking Blue Owl Capital. (OWL)
A leading provider of capital solution in private management. $102 billion in assets.76% yoy gain in assets under management and 172% yoy retail funding.
