AMC - Watching out for 1 final Bounce / Double Bottom

rexxxar · December 2, 2021, 9:41pm

Levels to monitor…

$17 price line is the 4hour 200 EMA, consolidation above this line is good for the bulls.
I think next week is the last chance for any run-up for this ticker.

$19 price line is the Daily 200 EMA, I’m expecting some bounces here before it either consolidates above 17 or dive under that critical support.
15 and 12 might have the last buying powers waiting on the sidelines, before a worse market crash help the easier bear case.
A break under 12 should finally force this thing to sleep for at least another year.

Indicators you see here:

Hollow Candles
TripleEMA, 13, 48, and 200 days.
Kertnel Channel, default.
Fib Retracement
Regression Trend
MACD
RSI
BB %B

xxx

Chaikin now has AMC’s Technicals as Very Bullish…

Financials and Expert Opinion remain unchanged, of course.

Earnings…

Retail strength continues to go against the fundamentals…

I’m simply trading the movements, not holding anything for the long term.

xxx

Here’s the Weekly chart…

I want to see AMC break 18.92 to help confirm this bullish momentum for the next 2 weeks.
Now holding strangles to sell before ER tomorrow.
High target of 25 this August.
37 if more retards come out.

Keep it green.

xxx

Can’t wait to short this big time…

Currently have Reverse Iron Condors.
Will play the iV rush before ER, with strangles.
Then will build on Reverse Iron Condors again for Aug26 and/or September opex.

Later.

xxx

This time around, 90 will be the sweet target…

Nuff said. See you after this May ER.

I’m watching the 55 EMA line here…

Should price go over $20 once again in the next few days, AMC will have a Buy Signal for a possible short pop once again.
If you read the updates way below, I want AMC to consolidate over $15.
What needs to be consistent, is for the 55 EMA line to be under the price.

Given that Dr. Strange in The Multiverse of Madness will come out on May 6, 2022, I think AMC’s 2022 1Q ER will be scheduled the week after that.
May 9-12 is what I’m looking at. Will start a horizontal spread at least 1 week prior…

This trailer is siiiiick!!! I miss film production days. Not really.

AMC didn’t fall to 12, but instead ballooned to 20 before getting rejected.
I’m sticking to my guns this week that it will touch 16 again, before establishing its trend towards this March (4Q 2021) ER…

I think 12 will be a good line to watch…

With ER getting nearer, and more MCU movies coming out soon, things may start to get interesting for the bulls again.
Based on what I’m looking at, most wannabe-apes have left the AMC jungle.

Here’s a short list of blockbusters…

Oh no, Batman’s junk is out.

Since we’ve closed the AMC 3Q ER Play thread, yet we still see sentiment on this ticker (Trading Floor and beyond, but especially Trading Floor), I think it’s best you have a proper reference on what to look out for.

TLDR: Watch out for AMC to…

try for 36 again,
get rejected back down to 27 (or 25),
before launching again to try for the moon one last time.
When? In a few weeks or shorter.

Charts…

Quick review of where what I was hoping to see after 3Q ER.
Post ER most of us were hoping for the price to reach out to 52, to continue mirroring the end of May.
That failed due to lack of VOLUME–I enclosed the volume from May 12 to May 20 inside violet rectangles.
Note how that’s nowhere to be found from Nov 3 to Nov 16–despite getting to the 44-45 channel.
It was a fake-out. Why?
Buyers simply thought AMC wasn’t worth it at that price level.
Shorts were very much in profit–they only start getting squeezed at 47, 52, and 75–because those points are where they started.

Now where do we look to next? If you’re still somewhat emotionally invested in the stock, then read on.

If you are out of the stock, then congratulations! You’ve made the greatest step in keeping sane. Stay out.

The Standard…
What you are looking at is GOLD vs AMC, both on their 2nd Runs.
This is my personal study of the Monthly GOLD chart which I then use to compare similar looking runs to.
Incidentally, there’s a much deeper theory here than I was initially aware of–always good to learn from veterans. More on that later.

Looking at GOLD, you see it break out downward from its visible support line (pink dash line).

It was also wedged for months on the 339 line.
Afterwards, it kept bouncing on the 282 line, until a further breakdown to 254, where we see a spike of Buying Power.
It tried for the 339 again and got rejected, eventually came back down to 254, to finally start flying again all the way to $1,920.00 in Sept 1, 2011.
The end of that wedge was Jan 1, 1999. Or close to that.

For AMC, we have to look at the same possible signs on a much compressed time frame.

I will be looking for a Double Bottom either here at 27 or possibly 25.
I’d like for it to try 35-36 and get rejected back to that bounce line, before continuing to break out again.
Then I will look for entries at 30, 40, and 50.
The end of AMC’s wedge is Jan 7, 2021.

Another option will of course be for AMC to just immediately take flight from this lower channel of 25-30.
I just don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Will this ever happen? Who knows? But I’d rather you be aware of what to look out for now, rather than getting sucked in endlessly by friendly youtubers and/or the morally ethical pump and dumpers of reddit.

Regardless of all the good news coming out from and surrounding AMC–it needs Buying Volume.

To be clear: I still have positions in AMC spread across a few brokers–just because. Nothing special.

Don’t wait for nothing! There are a lot of good possible trades here in the forums.
Don’t get your capital trapped needlessly. Keep liquid and keep it green.

theshrike · December 3, 2021, 3:22am

Not gonna lie, I would love for AMC to make one more glorious run. I made the mistake of not capitalizing on the last run up to $75. However, no regrets, I’ve learned a lot about trading this year and happy that I’ve become part of this great community.

rexxxar · December 6, 2021, 12:07pm

Possible huge Catalyst:

Why this matters:
AMC retail investors are very sentimental–and nothing is more sentimental than NFTs right now.
We will see if this is reason enough for a great Buying Volume to come in.

The stock is currently trading at 27.63…

Why I’d still be careful if I were you:
As you can see in the current chart, at least 3 resistances now need to be broken; 28.50, 31.10, and 36.00.
Another thing to consider is the market’s overall strength, we’ve seen AMC stock correlate with SPY.
Finally there’s also the crypto crash this past weekend which cannot be ignored.

I’m still sticking to the pointers I laid down in the main body of this thread, above.
Drown out the noise.

TheOtherePete · December 6, 2021, 1:22pm

You don’t have to own any shares of AMC to be part of AMC Investor Connect

rexxxar · December 9, 2021, 6:38am

Ok let’s update this one. Daily and 15min charts…

Here on the Daily, let’s note the indicators:

Volume, we’re still missing a ton, although it’s picking up.
Selling pressure has eased up 2 days in a row, price and MACD agree.
MACD and signal lines have not crossed yet, but appear to be near?
RSI is at 37.66,
BB%b has recovered to 0.23 from -0.26 back in Dec 1,
Price has broken past 31.10 which as a the 2nd previous big support.

*I still want to see it try 36, smash it and then we should be flying. Maybe?
*I don’t see any big buying volume, I don’t play big yet.
***You can scalp this, don’t get me wrong, just don’t expect the biggest move yet.

Now here on the 15min:

It seems to be doing well until you check the Volume again, it’s not holding up–supply increases at the end of the day.
This is why I still think it will fail the first time it tries for 35-36.
Ideal buying volume will keep the supply down. That’s when fomo hits the market. AH and PreM will be lit. I don’t see that yet.

*Again, you can scalp this, but don’t hold your gains overnight.
***Do your best to time the bottoms. We love good bottoms. Thicc and… sorry I stray.

Ps. I’m getting the shivers. I might be down for a day or so. Watch the volume.

VoodooTrader · December 9, 2021, 7:57am

I agree with your analysis and relative PTs you’re thinking for, especially if we break through $33 and hold there isn’t much resistance until that 35 area.

While the volume isn’t insane like the old days, OBV has been stepping up consistently, which is key in a macro sense & also this week. Also, we’ve had volume increases over this week relative to the dry/low vol the week previous.

I have some FEB $42c’s I picked up, along with the MAR $90c’s are holding value well. Don’t have any expiry’s closer than JAN21 personally, but the MACD cross on the 4hr, RSI bottoming out, and when there is a test/break/hold over $35, at least based on historical price action, I think we will get some volume stepping In.

Enjoyed reading through your DD, seems to be the coiling up for a push. I was happy actually to see it retrace into close today as it did, right down to rest on a fib level on the dot shortly after close, as it’s not overextended moving into tomorrow. Good luck on this play, get that loot!

Sorry to hear you’re not feeling well, I had bronchitis that turned into walking pneumonia and it’s been kicking my ass for a few weeks, not covid but rough still. Hope you’re back on your feet quickly, G!

Snoooopy · December 10, 2021, 6:40pm

What are you guys thoughts? Is it really insiders selling that is creating this downward movement?
What can we expect from here?

rexxxar · December 28, 2021, 8:41pm

So far, AMC is holding well enough above the 27 support line and it’s somehow trading sideways here at 28 today.
I don’t see strength on the buying side anymore, though.
Supply has been increasing again these 5 trading days.

Matrix Resurrections box office numbers are low.
HBO stole a good chunk of it since they chose to stream the movie right out the gate.
Of course that allowed high-quality pirated copies to be distributed for free online.

Spider-Man: No Way Home delivered the hope for bullish institutional holdings, but there aren’t any more big movies to come out until Jan and Feb 2022.
https://www.amctheatres.com/movies?availability=COMING_SOON

While retail sentiment remains significant, the buying power doesn’t necessarily reflect that.
Several institutions have lost and exited their positions on the 35 support line.
Bitcoin is dropping again, probably back to or even under 40K (still high yeah).
It’s the year end and books are being balanced.

If you’re still bullish, there may yet be a better starting position to catch here soon.
Should it fall below 27, I’ll look at 24 for that strong support.

This isn’t too bad a line to start a long position, but be prepared to average down.

Short Interest data…

Options chain data…

Barchart data for Jan 21 monthly options…

PaperhandsJB · December 28, 2021, 5:35pm

Looking at AMC and if it continues to drop, the support at 27 area may be a good entry for calls 1-2 weeks out. If it does not hold that support, look for 25 support next.

SuckyMayor · December 28, 2021, 5:52pm

I’ve been posting my love for AMC puts on the trading floor. If we look to Elliot Wave, a great tool for hindsight, we can see that the most recent run to $30.65 appears to have satisfies the conditions for a wave 1 (5 ups and downs in the growth period.) Using Fibb retracements I see the ideal retracement of 50% and 61.8% as being between $25.46 and $24.24.

EWT is absolutely not perfect or even guaranteed to be right on the first pass. It requires a lot of re-pointing to justify the approach so anyone reading this should take it with a grain of salt. I believe that we’re going to fall between $27 and $25 as noted by JB. Where I may disagree with our gods is that I don’t believe that this will occur until tomorrow or the Thursday.

If this cycle completes and we do manage to hit the full 61.8% retracement, there is a chance this thing could run very hard on January monthlies (high 30s to high 40s.) Looking to a catalyst for wave 3, there’s no actual fundamental catalyst. However coming into the one year anniversary of meme-stock madness this one could jump on a retail sympathy ride.

Conqueror · December 28, 2021, 9:18pm

I’ve merged the two AMC threads. Rexxxar’s post that I’m replying is the most recent, JB’s posts below are a little older. This thread should be the one that’s updated.

SuckyMayor · December 29, 2021, 3:15pm

Just as a follow-up, an alternate perspective to the fibb retracement is that wave 1 was complete when it ran to $32.22 (again, cannot reiterate enough that EWT is not perfect and is much better suited for hindsight than foresight). If this is the case, then the 50% retracement is actually much closer to $26.50. Ideally we’d still like to see it pull all the way back to $25, however if anyone is hoping to play this long today may provide you with ideal entry while it’s under $27.

rexxxar · December 31, 2021, 1:13pm

Here’s the Weekly chart…

I don’t really see this moving up 4x anytime soon.
Best guess will be at least another 6 months to even 1 year.

What’s great is that you can trade this easier until it does.
Anytime it dips a few dollars under 30 is great buying opportunity.
Anytime it shows weakness near or over 30 is good selling rationale.

Once insiders are done selling shares, institutions might consider starting/adding long positions again.
For now, just tame your expectations to help profit on this stock–be it scalps or swings.

rexxxar · January 3, 2022, 2:20pm

CEO Adam Aron posted these twits today:

“MY NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTION FOR AMC. In 2020 and early 2021, AMC took on debt at high interest rates to survive. If we can, in 2022 I’d like to refinance some of our debt to reduce our interest expense, push out some debt maturities by several years and loosen covenants.
WITH AN IMPROVING FINANCIAL POSITION, one of our 2022 goals is to strengthen our balance sheet. There is no guarantee of success, but we will try very hard to get this done. We are always thinking of creative ways to make AMC’s future more secure.” – AMC CEO, Adam Aron.

This is good because he is being vocal about his thoughts. Sending an urgent message to his retail followers.
AMC missed out on the opportunity to pay some of its debt last June of 2021–due to retail investors Voting NO to that option.
It would have been a great boost of confidence to bigger long term whales and institutional buyers, but the apes were just louder.

Should AMC be able to refinance and ultimately pay off a good portion of its debt this year, that can be a very bullish long-term-buy signal.

Retail investors are banking on AMC’s exposure to crypto currencies and NFTs as a possible great source of revenue. Whether that holds true, remains to be seen.
I for one, am on that train too–but we can only drink so much hopium.

rexxxar · January 5, 2022, 7:49pm

If you’re thinking of playing starting a bullish position on this soon, today is not a good day.
Wait for a bounce and a strong confirmation, at least 1-2 big green bars on the 15min candles…

That bull run from Spider-Man NWH week got totally broken, if you can’t tell.
Just look at that 1hour chart and it’s clear how painful it is.

rexxxar · January 11, 2022, 9:24pm

I am of the unpopular opinion that this can and probably would go lower…

If it doesn’t beat 23 and hold above it for a few days, I’ll be looking at 15-16 for that stronger support.
I really wish I’m wrong here.

JoshBrewsDIPAs · January 12, 2022, 3:39am

I hope so too! But your TA is hard to beat. Even if, I’m hopeful on a Jan 28th rally with the ape community getting together for a 1-year anniversary buy fest.

PaperhandsJB · January 12, 2022, 3:46am

With their executives selling large amount of shares and sentiment constantly going lower I agree that we will continue to see amc and gme related stocks fall. We could be in for some surprise jumps but I personally think the end is near.

rexxxar · January 12, 2022, 4:15am

I’ll be joining that fosho.

JB is right, I get notif from Fintel everyday of insiders selling their positions.
It didn’t stop when AMC hit under 30. They just don’t care enough.
I think only a handful really believe in the business atm. The rest objectively consider their payouts.

Rpgeek · January 12, 2022, 4:34am

The NFT catalyst probably can cause a small run but GME just had the same catalyst and already has lost all of it’s gains just a day later. So I don’t see that producing much.